Philadephia Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is one of the NFL’s best game planners. He will without a doubt have an excellent plan for the Washington Commanders’ offense when Philadelphia hosts the NFC Championship Game at 3 p.m. ET Sunday. However, Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels already has proven to be one of the league’s best problem-solvers. The Eagles found out firsthand in Week 16 that even if you succeed against Daniels early, he eventually finds answers.

Daniels overcame several turnovers in that Week 16 matchup, throwing five touchdowns and bringing the Commanders back from a 14-point deficit with only six seconds remaining in the game. The Commanders’ offense has been soaring since that game. After seeing Daniels twice, how will Fangio choose to defend against Washington’s attack?

Daniels played one of his worst games of the season in Week 11 against the Eagles, but around that time, Daniels may not have been 100 percent recovered from a rib injury he suffered against the Carolina Panthers a few weeks prior. In both games against the Eagles, Daniels only carried the ball on designed rushes on 6.6 percent of plays, well below his 9.6 percent designed run rate outside of those two games in the regular season. Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury called fewer runs for Daniels from Weeks 8-11 after the QB hurt his ribs in Week 7, and in Week 16, the Commanders were trailing for most of the game.

Kingsbury has cranked up the dial on QB runs in two playoff games with Daniels carrying the ball on designed rushes on 15.6 percent of plays. The Eagles have one of the best rushing defenses in the league, but they rank 18th in defensive success rate against shotgun runs in which the quarterback carries the ball (not including scrambles) in the regular season. With weather expected to affect the game, Daniels should carry the ball much more than he did against the Eagles in the regular season.

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Kingsbury found an edge in Week 16 by lining up in empty formations. In Week 11, he only used empty on eight snaps. In Week 16, the Commanders lined up in empty on 14 plays. Daniels was 7 for 12 for 122 yards and three touchdowns on those. He also rushed for 42 yards (one designed rush and one scramble) and was sacked only once. He also threw two interceptions out of empty. One interception looked like a result of not being on the same page as his receiver and the other one he just forced under pressure. The Commanders averaged 0.86 expected points added (EPA) per play out of empty.

Week 16, 14:25 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-7

On third-and-7, the Commanders were in empty. The Eagles prepared for a pass lined up in a pass rush front with both defensive tackles lined up outside of the guards. Daniels saw the front and checked into a quarterback trap play in which defensive tackle Jalen Carter is left unblocked for the pulling guard to “trap.”

The play worked perfectly, opening up a huge lane for Daniels to run up the middle.

With how aggressive Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has been on fourth down, Fangio has to treat third down like second down. He has to be careful lining up in rush fronts like this that are susceptible to the run because when the Commanders get close to the first-down marker, they’ll go for it on fourth down.

Jayden Daniels picks up 30 yards on 4th and 11!

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The Eagles defense also uncharacteristically blew several coverages in Week 16, including on two of Daniels’ five touchdown passes. The Commanders were in empty on both of those two.

COMMANDERS. 49-yard TD to Zaccheaus for the lead!

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Expect the Eagles to be locked in with their empty coverage checks and communication on Sunday. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson was ejected in the third quarter in Week 16 and the defense was notably discombobulated afterward. With Gardner-Johnson in the lineup, presumably, there won’t be as many coverage busts.

The Eagles aren’t a big blitzing team, but they blitzed Daniels at by far their highest rate of the season in Week 16 (25 percent) after just blitzing him on 7.9 percent of dropbacks in Week 11. Daniels has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the blitz all season and just eviscerated the Detroit Lions’ defense last week when they blitzed. I’d expect Fangio to be much more selective with his blitzing in this game.

Rushing four and playing zone to get more eyes on Daniels has been the best formula for the Eagles. They have to condense the middle of the field and force the Commanders’ receivers to beat them outside. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell had one of his best games this season against receiver Terry McLaurin in Week 11, holding him to 0 catches on 25 snaps lining up across from him. After keeping McLaurin to the left of the formation almost exclusively from Weeks 1-12, Kingsbury has done a better job of moving him around to create more mismatches to make it harder for defenses to hone in on him. In Week 16, McLaurin beat Mitchell for a 32-yard touchdown pass.

The Eagles are optimistic Mitchell will play after injuring his shoulder early last week against the Los Angeles Rams and missing the rest of the game. They’ll trust Mitchell to play McLaurin one-on-one, but on third-and-medium or short when they have to play man, they’ll likely double McLaurin, which means receiver Dyami Brown will get a one-on-one matchup. Brown has been excellent in the playoffs with 11 receptions for 187 yards in two games. He’ll face a much tougher matchup against Darius Slay and Mitchell. Brown did beat Slay one-on-one on a deep pass in Week 16, which bodes well for Washington. Still, the Eagles would rather take their chances with Brown than McLaurin.

Jayden Daniels sends it long 🚀

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— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

Losing right guard Sam Cosmi will significantly impact the Commanders’ offense against the Eagles’ elite defensive line. Cosmi has been able to at least hold up against Carter, who has been an absolute game-wrecker. Without Cosmi, it seems like the plan will be to move right tackle Andrew Wylie inside to guard and play backup Cornelius Lucas at right tackle.

The Commanders doubled Carter on 53 snaps in two games and with Cosmi hurt, Carter may not see a single-block all game. Carter typically rushes against the right guard but in this game, Fangio might match him up with left guard Nick Allegretti, allow the double to come to him, and let defensive tackle Milton Williams rush one-on-one with Wylie. How the Commanders’ interior holds up could be a deciding factor in this game.

For the Commanders’ defense, the key is clear but a tall task. Can it hold up against the Eagles’ offensive line and running back Saquon Barkley? The Commanders won’t get away allowing 7.5 yards per rush like they did against Jahmyr Gibbs in the divisional round.

The caveat is that quarterback Jalen Hurts isn’t nearly as effective of a passer as Detroit’s Jared Goff is. The Commanders forced Goff into early mistakes which proved to be the difference. Hurts did not play well against the Rams. He took seven sacks, including two that took the Eagles out of field goal range and a safety. Washington’s best chance of stopping the Eagles is forcing them into a passing script. Hurts injured his knee against the Rams, so the quarterback run game could be limited. Stopping Barkley is the main priority.

The Commanders are outmatched from an overall talent perspective and they’re going to have to overcome a Fangio playoff game plan, but Daniels has shown an incredible ability to problem-solve and Quinn will give him all four downs to do so. Hurts’ injury looms large and could give the Commanders an opening for a massive upset in Philadelphia.

(Top photo of Jalen Carter pursuing Jayden Daniels: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)