It’s Friday, and damn it, that’s a big deal. I love Fridays. Fridays are by far my favorite day of the week. On Friday, there is so much opportunity in front of us. We have the entire weekend. All of it. And if you’re anything like me, you’ll be gambling all weekend long. It’s going to be glorious.
The only thing left to do now is figure out which NFL games we’re betting on Sunday. It’s a must-do on a Friday. The only one I know we need to get down on right now is the Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns matchup. There is so much uncertainty in that thing, the books’ brains are in shambles trying to figure it out. Their uncertainty is our opportunity. Everyone knows that.
This could easily be the greatest Sunday of our entire lives.
Player | Receptions | Receiving Yards |
---|---|---|
Cedric Tillman (Browns) | 2.5 (Ov -154 / Un +118) | 36.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) |
Player | Passing Yards | Passing TDs |
Jameis Winston (Browns) | 227.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114) | 1.5 (Ov +185 / Un -250) |
Odds taken October 25 at Caesars & Bally Bet. Check out the best NFL betting apps for player prop wagering.
We all know the Cleveland Browns are down bad at the moment. The deviant quarterback that they paid a trillion dollars is out for the season and they traded away the only proven wide receiver they’ve had in years (Amari Cooper). They’re literally at rock bottom.
The only thing they have going for them is the fact that they have a wide receiver on their roster than can run every route under the sun.
Per request of @MonotoneFootbal: Cedric Tillman’s Route Week 7 Concept
In a word, sexytime…
Aligned + targeted from every spot on the field w/lots of valuable crossing routes#DawgPound pic.twitter.com/eaKYtqxi4Z
— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) October 23, 2024
One of the smartest things we can do as gamblers is target uncertainty. The books need data to price these bets. If they don’t have data, then how the hell are they going to price anything. That’s where Cedric Tillman comes into play.
The Browns’ pass game is a situation where the books can’t possibly price a ceiling outcome. For starters, Cedric Tillman has never really been “a guy” in the NFL. On top of that, he’ll be playing with a quarterback who hasn’t played much for his current team.
On top of all that, the Browns are playing a team that will force them to throw the ball. The Baltimore Ravens own the NFL’s top run defense. Moving the ball on the ground will not be easy for Cleveland. At some point, they will have to put the ball in the air. They just will.
When that happens, Cedric Tillman will catch at least five passes. Feels right.
From the first time we watched Deshaun Watson airmail a receiver five yards away, I knew that Jameis Winston was a possibility. It was only a matter of time before the Browns made the switch. Albeit, Watson tearing his Achilles was not the way I thought it was going to happen, but it happened nonetheless.
And now that Jameis is in, we’ve got a chance to see things we’ve never seen on a football field.
Reminder that Jameis Winston is the only quarterback to ever be sacked for a 10 yard gain 💀 pic.twitter.com/UVA5A8vhbS
— DubClub (@DubClub_win) October 24, 2024
Here’s the thing with Jameis Winston. He’s not afraid of anything. He can make any throw and he’ll throw the ball until his arm falls off. In my opinion, he’s an upgrade from anyone on the Browns’ roster. He showed that last week when he drove the Browns right down the field in his only drive of the game.
This week Cleveland will host the Baltimore Ravens. While the Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL, their pass defense is awful. We’re talking the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the NFL. On top of that, they’ve given up the third most passing touchdowns to signal callers this season.
We know Jameis can move the ball on these guys. That’s already certain. But it’s great to know that when the Browns start sniffing the goal line, they’ll have to pass the rock to score. Simply put, there is no chance Jameis leaves the stadium Sunday without throwing at least two touchdowns. Feels right.
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