The conference championship games are finally set after a snowy divisional round of the playoffs on Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles outlasted the Los Angeles Rams in the snow while the Buffalo Bills held on to defeat the Baltimore Ravens. 

The Eagles will host the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship game and the Bills will play the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. There are plenty of overreactions from the thrilling divisional-round games on Sunday that can be used as ammunition for next week. 

Which overreactions are true and which are really overreactions? 

Eagles can’t win Super Bowl with Hurts throwing for less than 150 yards a game

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Eagles continue to find ways to win football games, regardless of the passing yards they have each game. Yards have been an overinflated stat to judge a quarterback, and Jalen Hurts is proving it by throwing for 131 yards and 128 yards in each of the Eagles’ two playoff wins. 

Hurts has thrown for under 150 yards in five games this season. The Eagles have won all five games because Hurts hasn’t turned the ball over — helping out their elite running game and defense control the game. 

Philadelphia has asked Hurts to reduce the turnovers and he has done that task, having just two since Week 5. The Eagles are 12-0 in the last 12 games Hurts has started and finished for a reason. They can win the Super Bowl with Hurts managing the game. 

Commanders can beat Eagles in Philadelphia

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Commanders are the team that isn’t supposed to be playing on conference championship weekend, yet here they are in the final four with the Chiefs, Eagles and Bills. Washington has to go into Philadelphia and win a playoff game, a place the Eagles are 6-1 in their last seven home playoff games (won four straight). 

The Commanders beat the high-powered Lions in Detroit, because Jayden Daniels has played like a top-five quarterback all year. Daniels and the offense can score against the Eagles defense, enough to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia. The extent of Jalen Hurts’ knee injury is unknown and could keep him away from being a plus-one in the run game. The Eagles offense is good, but inconsistent. 

Washington can beat the Eagles in Philadelphia with the way the Commanders are playing. They are a very confident team. 

Jalen Carter saved the Eagles season

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Rams would have beaten the Eagles this week if it wasn’t for Carter, a game-changer on the defensive side of the ball. Carter had a forced fumble in the fourth quarter that forced the Rams to score a touchdown and take the lead, and had the biggest play of the game in the final minute. 

On a third-and-2 from the Eagles’ 13-yard line in a 28-22 game, Carter sacked Matthew Stafford for a 9-yard loss. The Rams had no timeouts and a running clock facing a fourth-and-11. Stafford threw an incomplete pass and the Eagles advanced on the back of Carter, who nullified Stafford throwing for 324 yards and two touchdowns in the snow. 

If it wasn’t for Carter, the Eagles have one of the biggest collapses in the postseason. He’s a special player. 

This is the year the Bills will finally beat the Chiefs in playoffs

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Until the Bills actually beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, it will be hard to sell Buffalo on going to the Super Bowl. The Bills and Chiefs have met three times in the playoffs under Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen — all times won by Mahomes and the Chiefs (including last year in Buffalo). 

The Bills are the only team the Chiefs’ starters have lost to this season, and Buffalo has beaten Kansas City the last three times in the regular season. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are a different beast in the playoffs, however, especially at home. 

This is going off history, rather than how talented the Bills are and how Allen can will them to victory. The Bills were outplayed by the Ravens on Sunday, but won because they didn’t have a turnover and made the plays needed to advance. 

If Buffalo can do that against Kansas City, the Bills have a shot. 

Ravens wasted their best chance to win Super Bowl with Lamar Jackson 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Ravens had the Bills where they wanted them. Jackson threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns, but was done in by an interception and a fumble — along with a fourth-quarter fumble by Mark Andrews and a two-point conversion drop by Andrews that would have tied the game in the final minutes. 

Three turnovers doomed the Ravens, taking away another MVP-caliber season from Jackson (his best season ever) and a year which a 31-year-old Derrick Henry rushed for over 2,100 yards (including playoffs). The defense even played like a top-10 unit for the final month and a half. 

This was the Ravens’ best chance to win the Super Bowl with Jackson, and that includes last season when they were the No. 1 seed and hosted the AFC Championship game. Jackson was the best quarterback in the league this season and had a dominant running game alongside him, along with a defense getting better by the week (held the Bills to 273 yards). 

Turnovers ended the Ravens season, the mistakes Baltimore always seems to make in January. They can’t get out of their own way.