NFL Divisional Round Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

As the season progresses, and especially in the playoffs, it’s tough to find edges on the side and total of these NFL games, but there is still some juice to be squeezed out of the prop market, here’s my favorite prop play from every NFL Divisional Round game this weekend.

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One of the most intriguing storylines of this weekend is what exactly to expect from the Chiefs offense after a three-week break with everyone healthy. When you pour through the snap counts from the few weeks that the Chiefs had their weapons available, one player jumped out to me: Hollywood Brown. He’s likely to line up in the slot opposite Kelce for the majority of the game with Hopkins to his outside. That should set up positive matchups against a Texans team that struggles to cover the slot, specifically when teams release the ball quickly. In the two games versus the Steelers and Texans, Brown ran 32 routes and was targets on 15 of those. I expect more of the same on Saturday. His receiving yards currently sits at 41.5, which is too low if we see that level of target share. I laddered him up to 80+ yards to get some nice plus money as well.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet – Hollywood Brown Over 41.5 Rec Yards, 60+ +205, 80+ +500

This Commanders team struggled against the run all season. Bucky Irvine was having his way on the ground last week when the Bucs committed to it, but they, for some reason, consistently got away from it. The Lions will not do the same this week. With the re-insertion of David Montgomery, we have seen Jahmyr Gibbs’ total dip. I’m not sure that is justified. Montgomery is coming back from a serious knee injury and will be more of an asset in the next couple of games if Detroit advances than this weekend. I also do not expect Montgomery to get many touches if Detroit is up by margin. Let’s take advantage of the Gibbs adjustment and play the over.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet – Jahmyr Gibbs 90+ Rush Yards +100

When these two teams faced earlier in the season, the Eagles ran the ball at will, with Barkley racking up over 250 yards on the ground. I expect that to be the game plan again for the Eagles and one that should be effective. In three playoff victories, Jalen Hurts has never thrown for more than 151 yards in a game. On the other hand, Matthew Stafford will consistently be relied on to move the ball through the air if the Rams either a) have success or b) are in chase mode. You can now play the two head-to-head in the passing yards market. I do not love laying bigger juice, but when I ran this, Stafford outpassed Hurts in two out of every three games.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet – Matthew Stafford more passing yards vs Hurts -150

The game of the week was the toughest for me to find a prop I loved. I expect both quarterbacks to use their legs as a threat, but the added wrinkle of the zone read play from Baltimore last week makes me more interested in attacking the Baltimore side. I would be shocked if we do not see a steady dose of zone read here and, if so, Buffalo concentrating on Henry as the first option. That will mean Lamar Jackson keeps multiple times off the look and while it may not be successful, it will be a carry. Jackson is averaging 8.6 carries per game before the added zone read. With it in the game plan versus a team that has seen it on film and wants to take away Henry, he should shoot up to the 11-12 range.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet – Lamar Jackson Over 9.5 carries -120

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