The first week of byes is here, and the Sunday morning game in London also removes two teams from the main slate. As a result, the player pool is the smallest it’s been for a main slate this season. Still, two games stand out as the most appealing to stack, and this piece has three core studs, three values/punts and suggestions for player props at Sleeper and Underdog.
Game: Texans vs. Bills
Spread/Total: BUF -1.0/47.5 Points
The Texans clawed back to win against the reeling Jaguars in Week 4, and the Bills got steamrolled by the Ravens in Baltimore. Despite lackluster showings from each team last week, putting it mildly for Buffalo, they have eye-catching DFS options, starting at their quarterbacks.
C.J. Stroud is a traditional pocket passer, but he’s averaged 10.9 rushing yards per game. So he can add a point with his legs. Nevertheless, Stroud will likely need to support two pass-catching weapons if he provides value at his salary. Thus, gamers using Stroud in GPPs should double-stack him with two of his wide receivers.
Nico Collins is Houston’s alpha wide receiver and one of the best in the NFL. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 75 wide receivers with at least 75 routes this season, Collins is eighth in air-yard share (46.0%), fourth in target share (27.6%), tied for 11th in targets per route run (0.28 TPRR), fifth in yards per route run (3.22 Y/RR), tied for first in end-zone targets (seven), ninth in first-read percentage (34.7%) and fourth in first downs per route run (0.164). Collins has parlayed his absurd usage into the third-most receptions per game (7.5), the most receiving yards per game (122.3) and two touchdowns. Collins is a stud and the best stacking option with Stroud or an elite standalone choice.
However, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell have compelling cases for usage. According to Fantasy Points, the Bills have faced the fourth-highest slot target percentage (41.1%). Meanwhile, Diggs’ 62.0% slot rate this year is the highest among Houston’s wide receivers, and Dell has a 29.6% slot rate. Diggs has had the better box-score numbers, and people who believe in the revenge narrative could increase the percentage of rosters he’s on. However, Dell shouldn’t be dismissed as a big-play threat and GPP option if he can return from a one-game injury absence.
Joe Mixon is also attempting to return from an injury. He’s missed the previous two games with an ankle injury. Buffalo’s defense was gashed on the ground last week, and Mixon had a massive output in Week 1 against the Colts. He could be leaned on heavily if his ankle doesn’t sideline him again.
Josh Allen is the focal point of Buffalo’s offense, and his mobility is critical for his ceiling. In addition, Allen’s ability to score fantasy points on the ground means he doesn’t need to support multiple pass-catchers to provide value. So, gamers can double-stack or single-stack Allen.
The Bills are no longer the same pass-first offense as under Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey. Still, according to RotoViz’s pace app, their 56% situation-neutral pass rate is in the middle of the pack. Furthermore, the Bills are tied for the ninth-most plays per 60 minutes in a neutral game script (62). Interestingly, Houston is second, running 71 plays per 60 minutes in a neutral game script. The play volume for both offenses is ideal for the fantasy-scoring potential of all their critical contributors.
The most appealing ways to stack James Cook are as a bring-back from a double-stack with Stroud or in a skinny stack with one of Houston’s wide receivers. This year, Cook has handled 50 of Buffalo’s backfield’s 83 rush attempts. Notably, Cook has also emerged as Buffalo’s most-utilized back inside the 20, inside the 10 and is tied for the backfield’s lead in rushes inside the five.
Cook is also an asset through the air. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Cook’s 61 routes are more than Ty Johnson‘s 31 and Ray Davis‘s 10 combined. This season, Cook has been targeted on 0.19 of his routes and tallied 2.3 receptions per game, 26.5 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. Therefore, Cook can be stacked with Allen.
Still, Khalil Shakir, if his ankle injury doesn’t prevent him from playing this week, Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are Allen’s most appealing stacking partners. Shakir is first on the Bills in receptions per game (4.5), receiving yards per game (57.5), receiving touchdowns (two), target share (18.3%), yards per route run (2.80 Y/RR), first-read percentage (21.1%) and first downs per route run (0.134).
Kincaid has been Buffalo’s No. 2 pass-catching weapon this year. Additionally, he’s been decent relative to his peers at tight end. Among 35 tight ends with at least 50 routes this season, Kincaid is 10th in target share (16.3%), ninth in targets per route run (0.22 TPRR), eighth in yards per route run (1.71 Y/RR), seventh in yards after the catch per reception (7.38) and sixth in first-read percentage (19.3%). He can be stacked with Allen, used as a bring-back from a Stroud double-stack or skinny-stacked with Mixon or Houston’s wideouts.
Game: Bengals vs. Ravens
Spread/Total: BAL -2.5/49.5 Points
The Bengals and Ravens are a perfect example of styles making fights. More importantly, they’re an ideal matchup for DFS scoring potential if both offenses play to their capabilities.
First, according to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bengals are tied for the 11th-highest situation-neutral pass rate (57%) this year, and Baltimore’s defense is tied for the second-highest pass rate (64%) faced. Second, the Ravens are tied for the 10th-highest situation-neutral rush rate (50%), and Cincinnati’s defense has faced the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (53%).
The most straightforward way to stack this contest is with Joe Burrow double-stacked with two of his pass-catchers and a Derrick Henry bring-back. However, skinny-stacking Henry with one of Cincinnati’s pass-catching options is appealing.
Of course, being contrarian can pay off in GPPs, too. Lamar Jackson always has slate-breaking potential. Therefore, if the Ravens end up in a negative game script and need to shift more opportunities to Jackson’s plate, he could lead the slate in scoring. Jackson can be single-stacked since he can score points with his legs or double-stacked with two of his pass-catching weapons. Jackson could also explode in a neutral game script if he’s responsible for Baltimore’s touchdowns. Thus, the reigning MVP has multiple paths to a blow-up performance.
And, of course, this game has the highest over/under total, which makes it an eye-catching stack. Still, some of the game’s key contributors are forthcoming among the studs and values/punts.
Henry had only 46 rushing yards in Week 1, but he’s gained steam since then, amassing 84, 151 and 199. King Henry is averaging an NFL-high 120.0 rushing yards per game, and Cincinnati’s run defense is leaky. The Bengals have allowed 120 rushing yards to Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1, 90 to Isiah Pacheco in Week 2 and 104 to Chuba Hubbard in Week 4. Henry is a better running back than the aforementioned trio and should steamroll the Bengals.
A positive game script for Henry would be optimal for Burrow’s passing outlook. Moreover, Burrow is in good form and has a favorable matchup. Since a shaky opener, Burrow has passed for 258, 324 and 232 yards. Conversely, the Ravens have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (257.5) this season.
Higgins should eat if Burrow dices up Baltimore’s defense. Among Cincinnati’s pass-catchers, since Week 3, Higgins is first in air yards (172), first in air-yard share (37.4%), first in target share (21.7%) and tied for third in targets per route run (0.23). Finally, Rashee Rice (103 receiving yards), Davante Adams (110 receiving yards), CeeDee Lamb (67 receiving yards) and Shakir (62 receiving yards) have each exceeded 53.5 receiving yards against the Ravens this season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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