Sometimes you’re the windshield, and sometimes you’re the bug.

Last week’s lineup (90.16 DraftKings points) would’ve qualified for my lowest point total last season, when I averaged 139.67 points and only sunk below 100 once.

Since every broken clock is right twice a day, it wasn’t all bad. I was correct in assessing that Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels would be the best value at his position. Daniels produced 28.16 points on a $5,700 investment primarily on the strength of his 88 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground.

Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin ($5,800) also had a solid day for me against Washington, converting all eight of his targets into receptions for 83 yards and a TD, acting as sort of a contrarian stack with Daniels.

The rest was, as they say, no bueno.

However, a valuable reminder: A dual-threat QB who is capable of scoring multiple rushing TDs — like Daniels or Josh Allen last week — doesn’t always bring along pass-catchers with him.

In Week 1, I included Terry McLaurin in my stack with Daniels and Godwin, and he only had two receptions for 17 yards on four targets (likely because Daniels ran the ball 16 times).

Food for thought when you’re considering correlation while building your lineup.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

This lineup netted zilch last week, so I’m in the red $5 with an average score of 90.16 points through one week.

Week 2 Lineup

QB: Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($7,700)

The MVP is expensive, which should suppress his ownership.

RB: Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks ($5,800)

Charbonnet will be the team’s workhorse with Kenneth Walker out due to an oblique injury. He isn’t as explosive as Walker, but all we need is big volume and targets. In two starts last season, Charbonnet averaged 19 touches for 78.5 yards and scored a TD. Those matchups were against the 49ers and Cowboys. The Patriots have a decent defense, but they aren’t on the Niners’ or Cowboys’ level.

RB: Jordan Mason, 49ers ($5,200)

Mason rumbled for 147 yards and a TD on 28 carries (his most since high school) against the Jets on Monday night with Christian McCaffrey out due to a calf and Achilles injury. The Niners just placed McCaffrey on injured reserve. I don’t count anything the Vikings did against the Giants last week, but their run defense was good last season as well, surrendering the lowest explosive run rate and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Once again, volume is key here. Mason took all of San Francisco’s running back carries in Week 1 and ran a route on 60 percent of Brock Purdy’s pass attempts. He’ll finish with more than one reception this week if he runs that many routes again. The Vikings blitz a lot, so his total could be boosted by the screen-game and check-downs.

WR: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers ($6,000)

Godwin led Tampa Bay in first-read target share (29 percent), targets per route run, receptions and yards after his much ballyhooed return to the slot in Week 1. The Lions struggled mightily to contain Cooper Kupp in their opener, allowing him to produce 14 receptions on 21 targets (!) for 110 yards and a TD. Godwin features a similar skill set to Kupp.

WR: Malik Nabers, Giants ($5,900)

Nabers finished as the WR32 in PPR formats in his NFL debut. Not bad. Not great, but certainly better than Marvin Harrison Jr.’s unveiling in Buffalo. This is the perfect matchup for the dynamic rookie receiver to showcase his talent if Daniel Jones can get him catchable targets. The Commanders played zone coverage 73 percent of the time last week. Nabers caught four of his five receptions against zone in Week 1.

WR: Demarcus Robinson, Rams ($4,000)

Puka Nacua suffered a sprained PCL against Detroit and L.A. placed him on IR. Both Robinson and Tyler Johnson ($3,300) stepped up after Nacua was hurt — both received seven targets. Robinson is my preferred target of the two, finishing strong last season as the WR12 in PPR formats his final five games of the regular season. Last year, the Cardinals allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and not much has changed. Pivoting to Johnson and saving $700 would make sense as well if you’re trying to shoehorn another player elsewhere in your lineup.

TE: Mark Andrews, Ravens ($5,000)

Isaiah Likely went bonkers against the Chiefs, but there’s no need to flee Andrews as if he’s the Hindenburg. Unless Likely had Lamar Jackson’s memory wiped, Andrews will still be a big part of Baltimore’s pass attack going forward. The Raiders utilized single high coverage on 53.8 percent of their defensive snaps in Week 1. Last year, Andrews was second on the team in target share (18.5 percent) and first-read share (20.3 percent) against a single high, according to FantasyPros.

FLEX: Garrett Wilson, Jets ($7,100)

Many will shy away from Wilson, expecting him to be shadowed by L’Jarius Snead, but scared money don’t make money and I expect a bounce-back performance from Aaron Rodgers and Co. after they got embarrassed in San Francisco on “Monday Night Football.”

DST: Indianapolis Colts ($3,300)

Indy has a premium matchup against Malik Willis, who will make his first start since 2022. Willis has a 52.2 completion percentage with 350 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions in 12 career games.

Originally Published: September 14, 2024 at 2:19 p.m.