Nearly a week into the NFL hiring cycle, a trend that emerged in recent years has already been reinforced: Everyone wants to interview everyone. Requests have seemingly been printed up in manufacturing lines as teams seem determined to cast wide nets.
While the process can move fast with some teams, others will slow-play it to see if they can, for example, lure Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, whose potential extended stay in the playoffs complicates matters for his suitors. Wait too long and they run the risk of missing out on their second and third options should they not land Johnson. Comparatively, Mike Vrabel is a true free agent who can take a job as soon as it’s offered.
As a way of assessing how each vacancy is viewed around the league, The Athletic polled five assistant coaches, including two with head-coaching experience, to rank them from most to least appealing. There are six current openings, and we included the Dallas Cowboys as a seventh (Mike McCarthy’s contract expires Tuesday, and while it’s possible he and the Cowboys reach an agreement on a new deal let’s not be naïve to how quickly things can change this time of year).
Note: A first-place vote is worth seven points, a second-place vote is worth six points, etc.
There is some apprehension regarding the Cowboys’ unique power structure, as owner Jerry Jones doubles as the general manager, but based on our respondents’ votes, that hasn’t impacted the desirability of this job.
The Cowboys’ intentions with McCarthy remain unknown, although blocking him from interviewing with the Chicago Bears seems to be an indication they’d like him back. Jones praised McCarthy frequently late in the season. But how badly does McCarthy want to return after enduring a tolling season under an expiring contract? Clearly, McCarthy would have suitors if he became available.
The Cowboys’ appeal is obvious. “The roster built to win now,” a former head coach said.
The Cowboys are up against the salary cap and need to extend annual NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate Micah Parsons. There also are dangers with having a host of highly paid veteran stars, as a rash of injuries can quickly expose depth issues. But the Cowboys, behind VP of player personnel Will McClay, tend to draft well and have waves of younger players on the horizon.
Working under Jones tends to provide job security: He’s had five coaches since 2000, all of whom got at least three years. Coaches around the NFL also recognize the legacy they can build if they bring a Super Bowl to Dallas. Should the Cowboys pivot from McCarthy, they might take control of the hiring cycle.
Candidates have monitored this opening for months. With the writing on the wall for so long that Doug Pederson would lose his job, coaches eyed Jacksonville as the best destination in comparison to the three organizations that made in-season firings (New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears).
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still a premium draw — for the most part.
“Good landing spot,” an executive said. “(Lawrence’s) contract is definitely not ideal, but you have something to work with. While the QB hasn’t met expectations, there is still upside, but it’s definitely lower than what we all thought coming out (of the 2021 NFL Draft). This job vs. a job with no QB in place is a no-brainer.”
As you’ll see throughout this list, teams with QBs have a distinct advantage over the have-nots. That’s particularly true this year due to the underwhelming QB draft class.
However, the success of this job will be contingent on getting the best out of Lawrence. He was terrific while guiding the Jaguars to the playoffs in 2022 but was erratic in 2023 and regressed this season.
Considering they gave him a five-year, $275 million extension, that all but guarantees he’ll be on the books through at least 2027, the next coach won’t survive without turning Lawrence into the solution.
“You have a somewhat proven QB with talent who has won a playoff game,” another executive said. “But he hasn’t shown the ability to elevate, and your (roster) build is both defined and prohibited by the way he is compensated.”
Some eyebrows were raised this week when the Jaguars retained general manager Trent Baalke, who has now survived four coach firings between the San Francisco 49ers and Jaguars. Coaching candidates have questions about the power dynamics within the organization.
Owner Shad Khan has shown that he’s willing to spend with the recent construction of a new practice facility and massive stadium renovations on the way. The roster is in reasonable shape. And there’s still something to unlock with Lawrence. That’s a decent combination for prospective coaches.
Owner Robert Kraft has always recognized the poor optics of having a one-and-done coach, so it’s especially important to get this one right. Jerod Mayo was fired after one season, the result of a poorly planned succession clause in his contract that led to a coach getting promoted before he was ready for the job. Because of that, the Patriots never went through a proper hiring cycle last January.
Now, they better be diligent. Vrabel, the Patriots Hall of Famer, has been viewed as the obvious choice. Those close to the situation believe Josh McDaniels has a good chance of becoming his offensive coordinator.
The Patriots have also gotten in on Johnson, who has been selective in past cycles but appears more eager to listen now. A year ago, it would have been hard to imagine Johnson taking the Patriots’ call, but a young quarterback like Drake Maye has a way of urging people to answer.
“New England is sneaky because of the quarterback,” a third executive said.
The roster is in shambles. They don’t have a proven tackle on the payroll unless they fully commit to Mike Onwenu on the right side, and there are questions on the interior as well. And with a defense that ranked last with 28 sacks, they need lots of help in the trenches.
But the Patriots have Maye, the No. 4 pick in the draft and a league-high $124 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap. And even though Kraft’s approval rating is waning in New England, he’s largely still viewed in as one of the NFL’s most stable owners.
One question begs to be asked here: If Vrabel and Johnson go elsewhere, do the Patriots have a Plan C?
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The Bears got a second-place vote and two third-place votes, but they also had two fifth-place selections. It depends on what coaches prioritize with this one.
The roster is in good shape, although the offensive line needs a lot of work. And quarterback Caleb Williams has all the physical talent in the world, but he is still raw and needs to mature into a leader, according to those who have evaluated him. Still, with the right structure in place, both Williams and the Bears have the potential to take off sooner than later.
There are concerns with ownership and the power structure at the highest ends of the organization. Those uncertainties will need to be fleshed out during the interview process.
For a while now, coaching candidates believed this would be Johnson’s landing spot. He’s a perfect fit for what the Bears are trying to do, particularly if they can steal him from within the division, and it’s been said in league circles Johnson would want this job. Don’t be surprised if the Bears are casting a wide net just to ensure they’re covering their bases with other candidates while they wait for Johnson to get through the postseason.
The most interesting wrinkle has been Pete Carroll’s involvement. Carroll, who interviewed Thursday, really wants this job, according to a source familiar with the situation.
The Bears finished in the middle of the pack among the voting panel, but the feeling is they’ll still land a high-profile candidate because the roster is in good shape. Will Johnson be that candidate?
Here’s where it begins to get murky, as there’s a clear drop-off from the Patriots and Bears to the Saints and the rest.
The reason is obvious. The last three teams don’t have a clear plan at quarterback.
The Saints, who are a league-worst $51 million over the cap, have a decision to make with Derek Carr. Financially, it makes more sense to keep him for another season because they can restructure his $51 million cap hit, but that would again involve kicking the can further down the road. That’s been the Saints’ model for years, but it becomes nebulous when they aren’t winning.
“New Orleans is a way’s away,” the third executive said. “That’s a hard situation.”
Coaches who have interviewed for positional roles in recent years were concerned about the roster. Many of their best players were either aging out of their primes or stacking up injuries. And with cap uncertainty, the sense is a hard reset is inevitable.
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has been linked to the Saints because of his past with the organization, briefly as a player and then as an assistant under Sean Payton.
The Raiders got two last-place votes and three sixth-place votes. And yet, they’re a big wild card because of minority owner Tom Brady.
They haven’t won a playoff game in 22 years, and they’ve only been to the postseason twice. Owner Mark Davis just fired coach Antonio Pierce and general manager Tom Telesco after one season. His previous head coach and GM, Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler, lasted 25 games. And the coach before that, Jon Gruden, resigned after an investigation revealed he sent racist, homophobic and misogynistic emails.
Davis isn’t exactly on a heater.
“Vegas has had instability since before Gruden, so it’s a long build,” an executive said.
And yet?
“Brady may be the calming leader the organization needs,” a coach said.
What Brady lacks in ownership experience, he makes up for in connections. He is close friends with Vrabel, so the Raiders should be viewed as legitimate players for the former Patriots linebacker.
And if Vrabel is truly set on a New England homecoming, Brady will bring unparalleled levels of credibility into any interview room. Give Brady a chance to talk shop with Johnson, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen or any of the other higher-profile offensive minds, and this vacancy will rise in popularity.
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The Raiders also have $107 million in cap space, which is second to the Patriots, as well as the No. 6 pick in the draft. So while Brady may be the best quarterback in the building, the Raiders at least have the means to put a better QB on the field in 2025.
The Jets received three last-place votes and a sixth-place vote because the organization has become a public punching bag.
“Always in disarray,” a coach said.
Owner Woody Johnson’s involvement has been viewed as an obstacle for years, with more details emerging seemingly every time there’s a high-profile firing. Considering Johnson just wiped out coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas — two well-regarded leaders among their peers — and the Jets haven’t done themselves many favors.
They also have to make a decision on quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who turned 41 last month and played poorly for most of the season in his return from a torn Achilles. If Rodgers decides to keep playing, the Jets will have to figure out whether it will be for them.
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Otherwise, the roster is in decent shape. They’ve got talent at the skill positions and on defense, and the offensive line has slowly improved. There’s work to be done, but Douglas left his successor in a manageable spot.
But if an organization just combined two leaders who are well-regarded by their peers with a future Hall of Fame quarterback and enough talent at other positions to balance it all out, why did it come crashing down in such spectacular fashion?
And can the next regime change the pattern?
(Photo illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: istock, Aaron M. Sprecher / Getty Images)
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