Usually, by the time Thanksgiving rolls around, there are only one or two main candidates in the NFL Coach of the Year discussion who have separated themselves from the pack. But, this year especially, the debate for the award is a fierce one. From message boards and social media to group chats and talk radio, the discourse on who the current frontrunner is has been hot.

Should the award go to the coach who has done the most with the least? Or the one who has been most successful thus far this season?

From a betting perspective, the NFL COY is another awards market available for wagers at most sportsbooks around the U.S.

At BetMGM, the Detroit Lions’ Dan Campbell is the current favorite to win the award at +110. He didn’t come into the year as the favorite, as preseason odds to win were +2200.

The two coaches with the next-shortest odds are Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota Vikings), who are both listed at +450, respectively. Both coaches’ odds of winning the award shortened slightly from last week, with Tomlin moving from +550 to +450 and O’Connell shifting from +500 to +450.

Let’s dive into the current betting board, plus insights about the race from an oddsmaker.

NFL Coach of the Year odds

Rounding out the top five behind Campbell, Tomlin and O’Connell are Jim Harbaugh (Los Angeles Chargers) and Sean Payton (Denver Broncos).

An elevator pitch for each candidate:

• Campbell took the Lions to the NFC Championship Game last year, but Detroit has been even more impressive this season.
• The Steelers are somehow leading the AFC North at 9-3, clinching Tomlin’s 18th consecutive non-losing season with Pittsburgh — and he’s done it with a QB combo of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
• O’Connell has led a renaissance for QB Sam Darnold and has the Vikings at 10-2 after they had a preseason win total of 6.5 in Las Vegas.
• Harbaugh has revitalized a Chargers franchise that seemed to lose every close game the past few seasons and now is firmly in the AFC playoff hunt at 8-4.
• Payton’s Broncos are the NFL’s best team against the spread at 10-3 ATS and have crushed preseason expectations (win total of 5.5) behind potential NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year quarterback Bo Nix.

Campbell has more than double the wagers (16.6 percent) of any other head coach and the most dollars wagered (17.5 percent) to win the award at BetMGM sportsbooks nationwide. He also represents their biggest liability.

“This has to be the most competitive race I can remember at BetMGM,” Christian Cipollini, a BetMGM trader, said. “A lot of deserving coaches and ones that fit the qualifications we look for in what voters want. Campbell is the favorite, and we have liability there, so we’re hoping Tomlin, O’Connell or Harbaugh can make up ground in this last month.”

If you are into long-shot bets, keep an eye on Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott at +2000 and Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur at +2500. The Bills have won seven in a row and are led by MVP-favorite Josh Allen. And if Green Bay beats Detroit on Thursday night, their closing schedule (at Seattle, vs. New Orleans, at Minnesota, vs. Chicago) could give them a shot at the NFC North crown and an outside shot at the No. 1 seed if the Eagles falter.

Sean McDermott? https://t.co/6OXfPuP2pD

— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) December 3, 2024

It will certainly be a fascinating market to watch down the season’s home stretch.

Which coach do you think should win the award?

(Photo of Dan Campbell and Kevin O’Connell: Ray Del Rio / Getty Images)