Sports betting shouldn’t just be an entertainment activity.
If you’re serious about it, you should approach it like a chess player.
You are investing your money (chess pieces) into positive end value (plus EV) positions that you hope will turn in your favor.
We’re not moving our chess pieces into danger unless the end game is a win and there is some math-based data to support your angle.
Sports betting should be a long, drawn-out game you hope will make you money over time.
Are you looking to win or do you just want to be another Average Joe whom the sportsbook feeds on?
If you follow these steps, you’ll hopefully be on your way toward profitability in 2024 and maybe even end up being banned from sportsbooks, like me:
Do you think Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan implement their game plans when they walk into practice Tuesday? Of course not. The best of the best — the genuine studs — are betting when the line opens and snagging that extra hook before it’s too late. Wagering is a thin margins game. You need those few extra cents and percentage points to be successful. Typically, the first book to release lines on the legal online betting market is FanDuel, but they all usually copy the sharp books in Vegas — Circa Sportsbook and Superbook.
Did you know the Ancient Romans were skilled chess players? They also invented sports betting; there’s a method to the madness. There are vast tools available to you that should make betting more science than feel. When line shopping at various sportsbooks, you should head to a sharp Vegas-based shop like Circa Sportsbook or SuperBook and see what they have bets priced at. If you’re getting a better deal than what those two are pricing your desired prop, side or total, you’ve likely beaten the book by a substantial margin.
Sportsbooks will begin taking player prop bets on Friday, and the lines will move dramatically from there. When you move your first pawn piece in the prop market, it should start on Friday, not an hour before Sunday’s game time.
Sometimes you need an ace in the hole, and the usual Over/Under player prop yards are mostly pointless to bet on. If you are serious enough to wager your hard-earned money on it, you need to really like it. Think Dolphins running back De’Von Achane will go over 55.5 rushing yards? You should believe there’s a decent chance he doubles that number. Go find Achane to run for 100-plus yards at 10/1 instead of 55.5 at -110. The best book to wager on these is Bet365, which has an extensive range of alternate yardage totals for all players.
There’s nothing wrong with betting a parlay or two, especially if one book gives a perceived edge of five percent or better on two or more bets. If you’re betting two alternate yardage props that are priced in the +500 range on other books, but you’re getting +900 or better each, you can parlay these bets. However, your casual nine-leg long-shot parlays should be retired. Your nine-leg parlays are why sportsbooks are publicly traded companies whose executives make eight figures.
The Post first reported that DraftKings officially introduced the “no” side of touchdown scorer props. This is a huge boon for bettors and we should take advantage of it whenever possible. Public players bet Overs, and winners target the Unders on props and totals.
If your total bankroll is $100, that means you’re making $1 bets, which in turn is one unit. You’re not going to get rich overnight here, slow and steady wins the race.
Here are some trends to note for your bets this season, courtesy of Actions Labs data since 2003:
Following the above information, here are some games we can target in Week 1 and Week 2, with odds courtesy of FanDuel, Caesars and DraftKings:
The chess pieces your opponent has captured are gone, so don’t try to retake them. When you’re betting, you need to be extremely aware and disciplined. There are a lot of brain chemicals and dopamine flowing. That’s why we love it, but be careful.
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