After several decades of residing in the division’s basement, the Buffalo Bills have rattled off four straight AFC East titles, tying the team’s stretch from 1988–1991 for most consecutive division titles in franchise history.

USA Today writer Nate Davis believes that this will remain a shared record, as he does not like Buffalo’s chances to earn a fifth-straight divisional crown in the 2024 campaign. The analyst recently penned his 2024 league-wide NFL record predictions, projecting the Bills to finish with a 10-7 record. This would see the team finish in second place in the AFC East, behind the 12-5 New York Jets.

“They won seven of their final nine games last season, both losses by three points (including a playoff heartbreaker at home against the Chiefs), after installing Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator,” Davis wrote. “Though WR Stefon Diggs wasn’t a major component of that hot finish, Buffalo will have to carry on without him, WR2 Gabe Davis and quite a few former key players the team just couldn’t afford to keep. 

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“And the Bills better adapt to their new reality by midseason because, between Weeks 9 and 15, they’ll face just one team that didn’t reach postseason in 2023 – and that apparent reprieve is a Week 11 trip to Indy. Maintaining their divisional eminence might be too much to ask of QB Josh Allen and Co. in the midst of this adjustment period.”

Davis projects the Miami Dolphins to finish 8-9 and the New England Patriots to finish 3-14. Buffalo’s 10-7 record, per Davis, would be strong enough to allow it to finish as the fifth seed in the conference; he sees the team losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card round. He projects the Jets to defeat the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl.

While there’s nothing untrue about Davis’ analysis, it seems a bit doomist. He mentions the offseason departures of Diggs and Davis without noting any of Buffalo’s supplementary options; Buffalo’s weapons corps now consists of third-year wideout Khalil Shakir and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid (both of whom flashed down the stretch last season), big-bodied rookie wideout Keon Coleman (a promising ball of clay who will have every opportunity to succeed as a rookie), and free agent signee Curtis Samuel (who is reuniting with Joe Brady, who led him to his best offensive production as a professional in the 2020 season). Factor in the idea that the Bills are returning eight defensive starters (and will see All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano return from injury), and Buffalo may be better positioned for success than many are anticipating.

The Jets’ roster is objectively one of the strongest in the league, and the team, on paper, is a true championship contender. That said, predicting a 12-5 record is projecting that everything will go right for a franchise that historically catches few breaks. If head coach Robert Saleh proves all doubters wrong and the 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers looks prolific in his return from an Achilles tear, then a 12-5 record is possible; whether or not this happens is another story.

Regardless, a 10-7 projection and Wild Card berth is not necessarily poor for the Bills. The team made a concerted effort to get younger in the offseason and better position itself for sustained success; earning double-digit wins in what could be described as a “transitionary year” would not be a terrible outcome.

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