The final day of round-robin competition at the NextGen ATP Finals pits Arthur Fils against Learner Tien for a spot in the semifinals. In the other group, Alex Michelsen faces the already eliminated Jerry Shang.

(1) Arthur Fils vs. (5) Learner Tien

Fils finished runner-up at the 2023 NextGen ATP Finals in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and must win on Friday in order to make a return trip to the semis. The 20-year-old Frenchman is 1-1 so far this week with a five-set loss to Joao Fonseca followed by a three-set victory over Jakub Mensik. It’s safe to say that the latter result is more along the lines of what is expected from Fils, who–at 20th in the rankings–is without question the best player in the field.

Up next for the top seed is a second meeting with Tien. Their only previous encounter came in round one of the 2024 U.S. Open, where Fils prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-2. Tien has really broken through this season, with seven titles (four Challengers, three Futures). The 19-year-old American is playing well this week, too, with a 4-3(6), 4-3(3), 2-4, 2-4, 4-3(8) defeat of Mensik and a 4-0, 4-0, 1-4, 4-2 loss to Fonseca. Tien is no slouch, but Fils seems to be back on track thanks to Thursday’s performance and he is surely motivated to take home the title after just barely missing out on it last fall.

Pick: Fils in 3

(2) Alex Michelsen vs. (4) Jerry Shang

The story in the Red Group is the same, with one match on Friday being a de facto quarterfinal while the other is dead rubber. It’s Michelsen vs. Shang in the dead one, as Michelsen is 2-0 and Shang is 0-2 (Luca Van Assche and Nishesh Basavareddy are 1-1). It will be their third head-to-head contest after the 20-year-old American swept a pair of Challenger contests in 2022 (Tiburon) and 2023 (Chicago).

Michelsen secured his spot in the final four by beating both Basavareddy and Van Assche in four sets. Shang has no chance to qualify after falling to Van Assche in four sets on Wednesday and to Basavareddy in four on Thursday. The Chinese left-hander is too talented to be entirely discounted, but at the same time motivation may be lacking a bit since he is already out of the tournament for all intents and purposes. This is a good opportunity for Michelsen to go undefeated heading into the semifinals.

Pick: Michelsen in 4