The NBA trade deadline is less than a week away, and there is more to follow than just flashy names.

Let’s open up the notebook to run through three under-the-radar deadline narratives that have caught my eye with Feb. 6 approaching:

What happens with the Pacers?

Andrew Nembhard appears ripe for the picking, but don’t judge an NBA team’s books by its cover.

The Indiana Pacers are in a money crunch for 2025-26, approaching unfamiliar territory: the luxury tax. Nembhard’s contract structure could provide an opportunity to avoid it.

Other teams have noticed, dialing up Indiana and making significant offers for the third-year guard who has become an essential contributor. But talks haven’t gone anywhere, according to league sources in contact with Indiana. The Pacers love Nembhard, are confident about the current roster and could break financial tradition next season, paying the luxury tax for the first time in two decades.

Nembhard, a second-round pick in 2022, makes only $2 million this season. Once his extension kicks in for 2025-26, his salary jumps to $18.1 million. Trading Nembhard today for a productive player who also makes a small number could slice eight figures off Indiana’s 2025-26 payroll. Because he wasn’t a first-rounder, Nembhard does not fall victim to a niche provision in the collective bargaining agreement called “base-year compensation,” an eccentricity that often kills the ability to trade a young player whose salary spikes from one year to the next because of a significant extension.

But the Pacers aren’t thinking the same way.

Nembhard is one of their keys. The Pacers are 15 points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the court, the fourth-largest differential for any player in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass — and the team has taken notice of that stat. Indiana has won 16 of its past 21 games and is less than a year removed from a run to the Eastern Conference finals.

The Pacers, sitting at 26-20, fifth in the East, believe in their team. This deadline, along with however they handle the upcoming summer, will tell the world how much. Indiana is sneakily in one of the league’s most interesting situations heading into next season, when it becomes expensive (possibly too expensive, given the franchise’s history).

The Pacers have not paid the luxury tax since 2005, when salaries were a fraction of what they are today and rules for tax teams were more manageable. Yet, keeping this roster together into 2025-26 would make tax payments inevitable.

As of now, they have 10 players under contract for next season. Those 10 salaries add up to $165 million, only $23 million short of the projected tax line — and that does not include starting center Myles Turner, whose contract expires this summer. Even if Turner, who is having another strong season and makes $20 million now, doesn’t receive a raise, keeping him would mean the Pacers venturing into the tax.

Less than a week from the deadline, all signs point to them not trading Turner, according to league sources. Indiana is not trying to get worse.

Disappointing after Feb. 6 — whether because they dive down the standings or lose early in the playoffs — could affect the Pacers’ approach to the 2025-26 tax. If they want to avoid it, for whatever reason, they could make a trade this summer instead of this week.

They have discussed Obi Toppin, who makes $14 million next season, with other teams leading into the deadline, though there hasn’t been much traction in those conversations, according to league sources. But sending someone like Toppin into another team’s cap space during the offseason just to unload his salary could cost the Pacers a draft pick, whereas if they did a deal today, they could receive back an expiring salary and maybe wouldn’t have to part with an additional asset.

Of course, this supposes the Pacers won’t pay the tax next season. And maybe they won’t. They are excited about their roster. For now, they aren’t rushing to avoid a higher payroll. Maybe they never will.

Who ducks the tax?

The Pacers have time to figure out their tax situation, which wouldn’t hit their bank accounts until next season. Other teams are in more dire situations, hoping to avoid the 2024-25 tax.

Normally, if payroll is a mere minimum salary above the luxury-tax line, an organization gets under it by the trade deadline, its final chance to do so. Three teams fit that description as of now.

The New Orleans Pelicans ($1.4 million above it) are sure to get under. The Pels historically don’t pay the tax, and they won’t choose to now, when they are at the bottom of the Western Conference. Ducking it won’t be difficult. Forget about gaudy trades involving Brandon Ingram or CJ McCollum. All they have to do is dump a minimum player at the end of their roster, and they’re below it.

The LA Clippers ($2.5 million above the tax line), though fighting for a top-six seed, are another team to watch, even if Steve Ballmer spends like few others. They could foist a couple of tiny salaries onto another team, include a second-round pick or two as a thank you, and delay the repeater tax for at least one year, which would be ideal long term.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in the NBA’s most interesting tax situation.

On its face, the situation seems simple. The Cavs are just $1.9 million into the tax. They park Tristan Thompson, who makes a shade above $2 million, at the end of their bench. However, because they already employ the minimum of 14 players (the other two aforementioned teams have 15), they would need to sign someone to replace Thompson.

Do the math. If they subtract a minimum salary and then add another minimum salary, they are back to square one, which means if they want to avoid the tax, they have to unload at least one player who makes more than the minimum. But there’s a problem: All of those players are contributors to a team with by far the best record in the East.

Maybe the Cavaliers trade Caris LeVert (who’s on an expiring $16.6 million salary) or Georges Niang ($8.5 million) and bring back less money. But those exchanges would have to be basketball ones first. For every obvious reason, a contender is not trying to get worse, which means maybe Cleveland does end up as the one team this close to the tax that actually pays it.

If there’s one time to pony up the moolah, it’s when you’re in first place.

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Who’s desperate for Bird rights?

There is a world in which the Pelicans dump a player on a minimum contract without even having to attach a draft pick.

Enter Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.

Robinson-Earl is one of the rare NBA players who makes in the range of the minimum, isn’t essential to his team’s short- or long-term building and has early Bird rights, meaning an organization can re-sign him for up to 105 percent of the average player’s salary, which should be around $13 million in 2025-26. Intentionally overpaying end-of-bench players will become an obscure theme under this CBA.

Nowadays, organizations above the first apron, a payroll threshold set at $178.1 million in 2024-25, cannot send out more money than they take back in trades. Ones above the second apron, a slightly higher threshold, cannot even deal more than one player in the same trade. Organizations below the two aprons can’t take back more money than they deal away in trades without hard-capping themselves.

So a new trend has emerged.

The Phoenix Suns, the most expensive team in the league, just so happened to have Josh Okogie — who was at the edge of their rotation and making a cheap salary but eligible for a significant raise — coming off their books last summer. Because of the restrictions on second-apron teams, they strategically handed him more money than his market value demanded, setting themselves up for the upcoming season’s trade deadline. Because Okogie’s salary was $8.3 million this season, Phoenix could flip him for center Nick Richards, who makes $5 million, a few weeks ago.

If the Suns had paid Okogie the minimum, which is more in line with his on-court value, they wouldn’t have been able to address their center problem the same way, since they can neither acquire more money than they trade away nor aggregate players together in the same deal.

The Philadelphia 76ers pulled a similar move with Kenyon Martin Jr., who doesn’t play but re-signed in 2024 for $8 million over one year, lending Philly the chance to add to its roster without parting with someone from its rotation.

The Sixers just so happened to have Martin, just as the Suns did with Okogie. But what if teams begin to get ahead of this concept?

That brings us to this season’s deadline, when less flexible teams could begin plotting for next year’s deadline well in advance of it. Could a non-rotation player on a minimum contract eligible for a large raise this summer actually have value now because teams like Philadelphia and Phoenix think ahead?

Most players on minimum deals are not eligible for large raises, because they haven’t been under contract for long enough, instead able to re-sign for just 120 percent of their previous salary. Some, like Robinson-Earl, could get traded and carry their early Bird rights to a new team. Only a few can bring full Bird rights in a trade, eligible to receive any salary up to the maximum.

Garrison Mathews is on the fringe of the Atlanta Hawks’ rotation but could have value on the market not just because of his 3-point shooting ability but also because of his contract. He makes only $2.2 million and has Bird rights.

The Golden State Warriors are in a similar position with Lindy Waters III, as are the New York Knicks, who are feeling out the market for Jericho Sims, a center they believe they could command value in a trade, even though he currently occupies the end of the bench.

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It’s not just teams bound for the second apron who could justify interest in these players. After all, an owner needs a care-free wallet to toss cash at someone inconsequential without any guarantee the front office would be able to move him months into the future. Suns governor Mat Ishbia operates that way. Not everyone else does.

But the Sixers are a tinge above the first apron and valued a balloon payment for Martin. They could try the same strategy again next summer with Martin (if they don’t trade him) or someone else, like Kyle Lowry. Targeting one of these players today could make sense for the Pacers, Cavaliers, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings or Dallas Mavericks, given their 2025-26 cap situations, too. It wouldn’t cost much to land one of these guys today; maybe a second-rounder.

So if a cheap, non-rotation player commands more than expected within the next week, check his Bird rights, then wait to see if he re-signs for a hefty raise this summer. A trade could materialize over the next week not because of basketball but because of the contract.

Follow The Athletic‘s live blog for updates as the trade deadline nears.

(Top photo of Andrew Nembhard and Caris LeVert: Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)