NBA MLK Day Best Bets & Analysis

Happy MLK Day to all! As we celebrate the life and achievements of Dr Martin Luther King, we have a nice slate of NBA games to accompany that. The NBA always does a tremendous job on this day honoring Dr King, his family, and his work. 

We have an eight-game slate that will take us from noon to about midnight. With football winding down, more eyes and money will be on the NBA. If you are not up to speed, no worries, I got you covered with a handful of best bets for today’s action 

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans (-10.5), o/u 232.5

Let’s start with something fun. Everybody likes rooting for points and I think we will get quite a few in this matchup. These two teams met a few days ago and scored 259 total points.  

The Pelicans are a different team (obviously) when Zion is on the floor. Not only that but their season-long metrics are skewed due to their lineups fluctuating heavily due to injuries. This is the healthiest they have been all year and are likely to get Brandon Ingram back who hasn’t played since December 7th. 

Utah also is getting healthy and should be close to full strength with Markkanen, Collins, and Kessler likely to be back. That trio was not available in the first meeting and Utah still managed to put up 123. 

Despite injuries, both of these teams have been over teams all year. Both are around 58% to the over this year and have gone over in 6 of their last 10.  In their home games, Pelicans overs are hitting at a 65% rate. I see nothing different here with both teams being close to full strength. 

Best Bet: OVER 232.5

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzles (-3), o/u 235.5

We saw Memphis come away with a narrow victory a little over a week ago in Minnesota. Now the T’Wolves hit the road to try and return the favor. Monitoring the injury report will be critical for this matchup as several key players are listed. 

Despite the biggest name (Ja Morant) being on the Grizzles’ side, I believe they are well equipped to play without him. Their depth is top tier in the NBA and they’ve proven to be productive without Ja in the lineup. 

On the opposite side, the T’Wolves’ depth is thin and they could be without one of their better offensive options. Donte DiVincenzo has missed the last two games with a toe injury and could be in danger of missing his third straight. Without Donte, the already limited offense takes a hit. 

Defending the three and taking care of the ball is vital for Memphis. In the first meeting, the Wolves shot 40% from deep. Was that an outlier? Memphis is elite defending the three, ranking top five in opponent three-point%. 

With the pace they play, it’s critical for Memphis to protect the ball. Wolves thrive off their defense turning mistakes into easy baskets.

Memphis is returning home from playing 9 of their previous 11 on the road. They have been dominant at home – winning 15 of 20 straight up and covering 14 of those 20. This Grizzles team has multiple ways to beat you and I think that will be on full display with or without Ja in the lineup. 

Best Bet: Memphis -3

Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks (-6.5), o/u 235

Let’s just get the speculation out of the way – I love the Hawks in this spot. This is a similar number to the first meeting and Atlanta won outright amid a tough five-game stretch. All signs point to Trae and Jaylen being in the lineup and that’s all I needed to read. 

Knicks have depth issues and are dealing with two of their top five players being banged up. Not a good recipe against a long, athletic, and deep Hawks team. Not to mention, Atlanta has had the Knicks number – winning three of the last four. Two of those this season. 

Expecting Atlanta to push the pace and force the Knicks to run. It’s important they can absorb the initial blow the Knicks are likely to throw early on. Once that is over, the depth should be able to be on full display for the Hawks. 

We are nearly at the halfway point and the Knicks seem to have hit a wall. They are 4-6 straight up and against the spread this month. Of those four wins, three of them were against bottom feeders. Atlanta on the other hand has been pretty steady even with two of their best players being in and out of the lineup. They’ve won three of the last four on the road and are 15-7 against the East. 

Too many points for a matchup I perceive to be in favor of Atlanta. The Knicks have not done enough for this point spread to be warranted. The length and size of Atlanta could cause issues for Brunson and if he is not playing at a high level, i can’t see Knicks separating. 

Love the points but sprinkle on the moneyline as well. Would not be shocked if Atlanta has the ball with a chance to win late. 

Best Bet: Atlanta Hawks +6.5