Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.Â
Consult the NBAÂ Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Tyler Herro has had a fantastic season for the Heat, and he’s been even better since the team traded away Jimmy Butler. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s scored at least 50.0 DraftKings points in three of them. Overall, he’s averaged just under 44.0 DraftKings points in 32 games with Butler out of the lineup.
Herro continues to stand out as undervalued as the team’s No. 1 option. He’s priced at just $8,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 76%, and he leads all point guards with 12 Pro Trends. His matchup vs. the Knicks is also solid. New York can score points in bunches, but they haven’t been the same team defensively this season. They’re 19th in defensive efficiency, and Herro torched the Knicks for 34 points and seven assists in their first meeting.
The Jazz have a shot at securing the maximum number of ping-pong balls in the lottery, and they’re unsurprisingly taking that very seriously. They are going to be without most of their key contributors for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Pelicans. Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Collin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson have all been ruled out, so the rest of the team is going to have to pick up the slack.
That makes Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier very appealing. George is slightly more expensive, but he’s grading out as the superior value in our NBA Models. With all four of the previously mentioned players off the floor this season, he leads the team with a 28.87% usage rate. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so he brings significant scoring upside to the table.
Collier is more of a traditional point guard. He’s more of a distributor than a scorer, but he’s still capable of racking up fantasy points. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with Markkanen, Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson off the floor this season, and he’s scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in five straight games with at least 30 minutes.
Both players are projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and they should provide outstanding value in an elite matchup.
Luka Doncic hasn’t been quite as consistent with the Lakers as he was with the Mavericks, but he possesses the same elite ceiling. He’s gone for at least 68.0 DraftKings points in two of his past four outings, and he remains priced at a slight discount. He’s available at $10,800 on DraftKings, and Doncic has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.21 with a comparable salary since the start of the 2022-23 season (per the Trends tool).
Cason Wallace has seen an uptick in playing time recently, and that shouldn’t change Sunday. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe are both out of the lineup, and Wallace is projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him an attractive punt play at $4,100. Players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.01, and the Thunder’s 124.5 implied team total is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Anthony Edwards was ejected after just 26.1 minutes in his last outing, and he missed the team’s following game with a suspension. He’s reached 16 technical fouls for the year, so he’ll now miss a game for every two techs moving forward. The Timberwolves are locked in a fight for a spot in the playoff tournament, so Edwards is going to have to be cognizant of that moving forward.
That said, the missed time has created a potential buy-low opportunity. Edwards is down to just $9,000 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of nearly $1,000 over the past month. He’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s been extremely productive when he’s been on the floor.
Make sure to keep an eye on the Timberwolves’ injury report. Edwards is officially questionable with an illness, while Julius Randle is questionable to return after a 13-game absence. Randle’s return would have a negative impact on Edwards, but Edwards would be a prime target vs. the Suns if Randle is out once again.
Alec Burks is priced near the minimum at $3,200, but he’s been a nice source of value recently. Whenever Burks has been in the rotation, he’s been able to rack up fantasy points. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month; the bigger question is, how many minutes is he going to play? In his past four games, Burks has seen as many as 27.2 minutes and as few as 5.0.
Fortunately, the games with minimal playing time have been less frequent. He’s projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he can get to that threshold vs. the Knicks, he’s a strong bet to return value. He’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a roughly 23.25% clip, which far exceeds his 16% projected ownership. Only Edwards has a higher optimal lineup rate at the position.
Stephon Castle has shown steady improvement throughout his rookie season. He’s still coming off the bench for the Spurs, but he’s handling a starter-like workload on most slates. He’s logged at least 29.9 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in both. The Spurs will be on the second leg of a back-to-back Sunday, so they could be without a couple of their veterans vs. the Thunder. If that happens, it would make Castle an even more appealing option at $5,900.
Bradley Beal is questionable for the Suns after missing two straight games. However, if he returns to the lineup, he has some appeal at $6,800. He was playing his best basketball of the season before his recent absences, logging at least 37.0 DraftKings points in six straight games.
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Franz Wagner has struggled a bit for the Magic recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in six straight games. However, most of those misses have come by the slightest of margins. He’s still scored at least 40.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five games; he just hasn’t been quite able to pay off an elevated salary.
Wagner’s price tag is down to $8,100 on Sunday after peaking at $8,800 three games ago. That’s going to make things much easier for him. He also draws an excellent matchup vs. the Raptors, who are merely 24th in the league in defensive efficiency. He ranks second in the position in ceiling projection and third in projected Plus/Minus, making him a nice combination of value and upside.
Brice Sensabaugh is the next potential target for the Jazz. He’s been a solid source of production when on the court this season, averaging 0.90 DraftKings points per minute. His playing time has been capped with the team at full strength, but that shouldn’t be an issue Sunday. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s seen a +5.49% bump to his usage rate with Markkanen, Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson off the court. He’s increased his production to 1.03 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so he’s a prime value option in the frontcourt.
Alex Caruso is another possible value option. He’s not playing a ton of minutes for the Thunder, but he makes up for it with elite per-minute efficiency. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 24.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He would get a further boost if Jalen Williams is unable to play through a questionable designation.
There are plenty of value options to choose from Sunday, so paying up for someone like LeBron James is definitely viable. LeBron has the top ceiling projection at the position, and he also has a slate-best 13 Pro Trends. Only Sensabaugh has a higher optimal lineup rate among small forwards.
Paolo Banchero is the 1A to Wagner’s 1B for the Magic. Both players are capable of leading the team in scoring on a nightly basis, but Banchero appears to have the superior upside. He put that on display in his last outing, racking up 41 points and 59.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors. Banchero has played in just 29 games this season, but he’s crossed the 30-point plateau in seven of them.
Overall, Banchero has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, while Wagner has been at just 1.20. Despite that fact, Banchero is the cheaper of the two players Sunday. That doesn’t make a ton of sense, and his current salary comes with an 82% Bargain Rating. Both players are worth considering in this matchup, but if you’re only choosing one, Banchero gets the clear edge.
Aaron Wiggins has developed into a legit player for the Thunder. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past 11 games. That includes two games with at least 34.25 DraftKings points in his past three. He’s projected for another 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and Wiggins has been a phenomenal bet to return value with that much expected playing time. He’s been projected for at least 26 minutes in 11 games this season, and he’s averaged just under 30 DraftKings points per game.
Haywood Highsmith is priced at just $3,400 on Sunday, resulting in an 87% Bargain Rating. Like Burks, his minutes have been inconsistent for most of the year, but he’s trending in the right direction. He’s logged at least 27 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored 20.75 and 36.25 DraftKings points in those contests. We have Highsmith projected for 29 minutes vs. the Knicks, making him a clear target at a near-minimum salary.
Zion Williamson continues to play limited minutes for the Pelicans, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting big numbers. He’s averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he racked up 63.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. The Pelicans have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, so he has the chance for another big showing vs. the shorthanded Jazz.
Naz Reid has seen a big spike in value for the Timberwolves recently. He’s taken over as the team’s starting center with Randle and Rudy Gobert out of the lineup, and he’s increased his production to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s played upward of 40 minutes a night in that role, and he’s responded with some huge performances. Reid has scored at least 41.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four outings, including 59.75 in his most recent contest.
Reid’s viability will ultimately come down to the injury report. If Edwards and Randle are both out of the lineup, Reid becomes one of the top studs on the slate. Reid would still have some appeal if either or both players are back in action, but his upside would obviously decrease.
Kyle Filipowski is our final value option for the Jazz, and he might be the best of the bunch. He leads all players on this slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he should thrive in an expanded role. Filipowski has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models. Filipowski had 49.75 DraftKings points the last time he eclipsed 28 minutes of playing time, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.15 in five games with at least 26 projected minutes.
Nick Richards stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a 94% Bargain Rating. He’s racked up at least 35.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, so his price tag has yet to reflect his increased production. Overall, he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 26 minutes vs. the Timberwolves.
Kelly Olynyk has one of the better individual matchups on the slate, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.43. Olynyk has always been an elite per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s seen an uptick in playing time since landing in New Orleans, and he’s responded with at least 27.25 DraftKings points in three straight games.
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