Friday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Kyrie Irving missed the Mavericks’ final game before the All-Star Break, but he should be good to go for Friday’s matchup vs. the Pelicans. It doesn’t get much better from a matchup standpoint, with New Orleans ranking 29th in defensive efficiency. The Mavs’ 122.0 implied team total ranks second on the slate, and Irving has routinely played 40+ minutes when he’s been in the lineup recently.
With Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford all out of the lineup, Irving is going to have to carry another heavy burden on Friday. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.18% with all three players (and Luka Doncic) off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. Irving ultimately has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position, trailing only the significantly more expensive Cade Cunningham.
Immanuel Quickley has had a bit of a lost season for the Raptors, but he’s trending in the right direction. He’s played limited minutes since returning from an injury on Jan. 31, but he’s now logged at least 29.9 minutes in three straight games. That includes nearly 34 minutes in his last competitive outing.
Quickley is projected for 32 minutes Friday vs. the Heat, and he’s an elite value at $6,200 if he’s going to see that much playing time. He leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus, even in a subpar matchup vs. the Heat.
Chris Paul stands out for the shorthanded Spurs. He’s not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s proven he can still dial it up when he wants to. He has been the biggest beneficiary with Victor Wembanyama off the floor for most of the season, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +5.06%. Paul has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he eclipsed 40 DraftKings points with Wemby sidelined on Thursday.
Jalen Brunson is another potential stud target on this slate. The Knicks are currently a bit shorthanded, with both Josh Hart and OG Anunoby sitting out on Thursday. We’re still waiting on their official injury report for their matchup vs. the Cavs, but Brunson could approach 40 minutes if both players are sidelined once again. He’s scored at least 43.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games—including 49.25 on Thursday—and he’s averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with Anunoby and Hart off the floor this season.
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The Spurs were dealt a massive blow on Thursday when it was announced that Wembanyama was expected to miss the rest of the season after the team discovered a blood clot in his right arm. That’s going to make it tough for the Spurs to make a run to the postseason, though they did manage to secure a win without him on Thursday.
With Wembanyama sidelined, De’Aaron Fox will have to pick up the slack on offense. The newest member of the squad hasn’t seen a ton of minutes with Wembanyama off the floor, but he’s averaged a stellar 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in that split. He posted a 28.8% usage rate sans Wemby on Thursday and responded with 56.25 DraftKings points in a near triple-double vs. the Suns.
Fox’s price tag has yet to reflect his new reality. He’s still available at $8,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating. He leads all shooting guards in ceiling projection and projected Plus/Minus, which is a tough combination to fade. Fox is also projected for less than 30% ownership, so he shouldn’t be super chalky as well.
Max Christie was one of the “minor” pieces that the Mavericks received in exchange for Doncic. However, he’s wasted little time making an impact. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game as a member of his new team, and he’s scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in six straight games.
Christie had more than 40 DraftKings points in his last outing, though that was with Irving out of the lineup. I wouldn’t expect a repeat vs. the Pelicans, but he should be able to return value at just $5,400. No SG is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a higher frequency in Sim Labs.
Cameron Payne could also provide some value at shooting guard. He’s priced at just $3,500, but he should see a few additional minutes if Anunoby and Hart are sidelined. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute for the season, and he’s typically a high-impact player when on the floor. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but he’s a solid bet to return value.
Most people who are paying up at shooting guard will likely gravitate toward Fox, which could make Donovan Mitchell a bit underowned. He’s projected for roughly 10% ownership, but the Cavaliers have the top implied team total on the slate at 123.5.
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Zion Williamson recently gained small forward eligibility on DraftKings, and he stands out as one of the stronger stud options at the position on Friday. Williamson has struggled to get and stay on the floor all season, but he’s been as effective as ever when he’s been in the lineup. He’s averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.65 over the past month. He racked up 58.75 DraftKings points in his final game before the All-Star break, so perhaps that will springboard him into a big second half.
Williamson is only projected for 28 minutes on this slate, but that’s still enough to give him the top ceiling projection at the position. He also ranks fourth in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s a nice combination of value and upside.
The Grizzlies have one of the deepest rosters in basketball, with a host of different guys who are capable of producing. That includes Vince Williams. He’s been limited to just seven games in his third professional season, but his role has steadily grown. He’s coming off 20.4 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 20.0 DraftKings points.
That doesn’t stand out as an outlier. Williams has averaged right around a fantasy point per minute for the year, so he should continue to produce with that much playing time. He’s expected to see another 20 minutes again on Friday, making him a solid value at just $100 more than the minimum.
I’m going to continue to ride Ausar Thompson for the Pistons. He hasn’t had as many opportunities as his brother has had in Houston, but he’s been nearly as effective. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and that figure is up to 1.15 over the past month. His playing time is also trending in the right direction, and Thompson has responded with a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games. That includes four straight games of at least 34.5 DraftKings points, so he’s still underpriced at $5,300.
Dante Exum also makes sense for the Mavericks. He was amazing in his last game, and he’s been really efficient since joining the rotation eight games ago. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $4,600 salary. His ceiling isn’t quite as high with Irving back in the picture, but the Mavericks are desperate for competent role players at the moment. Exum fits the bill.
P.J. Washington is officially questionable for the Mavericks, and his status will be extremely important to monitor. The Mavs are without basically every other big man on their roster, so Washington should be a focal point if he’s able to suit up. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic, Davis, Lively, and Gafford off the floor this season, so he should be extremely productive as well.
We currently have Washington projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s scored at least 33.5 DraftKings points in six of his past seven outings. The lone exception was a game he left early with an injury, and he’s cracked 40 DraftKings points in five of them.
Jeremy Sochan is another clear beneficiary from the absence of Wembanyama. He didn’t move into the starting lineup for the Spurs on Thursday, but he still saw an uptick in playing time off the bench. He finished with 28.2 minutes, and he responded with 26.25 DraftKings points.
Sochan is projected for another 28 minutes on Friday, making him a clear target at $5,500. He’s averaged right around a fantasy point per minute for the year, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.23 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
The Magic have been cautious with Paolo Banchero since returning from injury, but they appear ready to take the training wheels off. His minutes have increased of late, culminating in 37.2 minutes in his first game following the All-Star break. He responded with 57.5 DraftKings points in that contest, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. The Grizzlies represent a tremendous pace-up spot for the Magic, so Banchero brings plenty of upside to the table in this spot.
On the other side of that matchup, Santi Aldama has some appeal for the Grizzlies. He hasn’t played a ton of minutes this season, but he’s made the most of his court time. He’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute for the year, which is an elite figure for his $4,500 price tag.
If the Knicks are shorthanded again on Friday, it’s going to be tough to look past Karl-Anthony Towns. There’s some risk on the second leg of a back-to-back – especially against an elite Cavs squad – but Towns is simply too cheap if Hart and Anunoby are sidelined. He’s increased his usage rate by more than 6% with both players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.60 DraftKings points per minute. That represents a massive increase from his season average of 1.47.
Towns played more than 42.5 minutes in the Knicks’ overtime win on Thursday, and he’s projected for another 37 minutes vs. the Cavs. He’s scored at least 62.5 DraftKings points in three straight games, so he has an elite ceiling for his sub-$10k price tag.
Wendell Carter Jr. has officially reclaimed the center job in Orlando. He’s played 27.7 and 32.4 minutes in his past two contests, and if he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s way underpriced at $4,300. WCJ has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s scored at least 25.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
Jalen Duren continues to provide some of the best per-minute production in basketball. He’s playing less than 30 minutes on most nights, but that hasn’t stopped him from dominating. He’s increased his production to 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 41.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. There’s no reason to shy away from him against the Wembanyama-less Spurs.
With Jimmy Butler officially gone, Bam Adebayo is going to have to play better to keep the Heat competitive. Fortunately, he has an outstanding track record. He’s also started to turn things around recently, scoring 57.25 DraftKings points in his final game before the All-Star break. That came against a tough Thunder defense, and his current matchup vs. the Raptors should be significantly friendlier.
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