On the second night of a back to back – after an impressive win over the Cavs – the Oklahoma City Thunder will have to head to Dallas to take on a depleted Mavericks squad reeling from a controversial loss to the lowly New Orleans Pelicans.

The Thunder are a perfect 7-0 on the second leg of a back-to-back and hope to continue that trend tonight. Dallas will be without Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively II with Kyrie Irving still questionable. Oklahoma City, of course, has no shortage of injuries in its own right. Missing Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Ajay Mitchell.

OKC has done a better job navigating the injury bug than Dallas, and the FanDuel line continues to swell in favor of the Thunder, now up to 8.5 points. The Thunder are 1-1 against the Dallas Mavericks with the most recent game coming in the NBA Cup quarterfinals that saw Oklahoma City down Dallas with Luka Doncic.

The loss this season? A Kyrie Irving charged Mavericks against a center-less Oklahoma City squad – which could be the matchup tonight depending on Irving’s status.

Oklahoma City has the best player on the floor, and if Kyrie doesn’t play, the second best player as well as a better collection of role players. It makes the Thunder an easy bet given its 34-6 record and knack for lopsided wins – including yesterday against a fully healthy Cavs team.

PJ Washington has been a thorn in the side of Oklahoma City dating back to last season and with him in the lineup will always give Thunder fans pause. However, without the gravity of Doncic and the need to swarm the paint for 48 minutes against both Lively and Daniel Gafford, Washington slides up the scouting report – perhaps to the no. 1 slot depending on Irving’s status – which can lead to a decrease in production against a historically great defense to this point in the season.

While Gafford will still pose a threat to the undersized Thunder, especially if Irving is there to set him up, Jason Kidd will eventually have to play a small-ball lineup – which should further swing the game in Oklahoma City’s direction for those stints. That is a massive difference from the Mavericks typical set up, where they could avoid small-ball tricks and impose its size for 48 minutes.

On top of the lost size that the Thunder’s defense has to cover, it also frees up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with just one shot blocker looming he should be able to take his already great Maverick games to another level. Life gets much easier on rising star Jalen Williams, too.

If Oklahoma City can have an above average or better shooting night in Dallas, the Thunder will cruise its way to a win and cover over the Mavericks. With how confident guys like Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins are shooting the ball right now, that feels like a good bet.

Updated 1/17 7:20: The Oklahoma City Thunder announced that superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out tonight, causing the line to shift from eight and a half to three points. The betting article will update to reflect still picking the Thunder, just at the smaller margin.

The Bet: Thunder -3

The Record: 25-14-2

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