The first of four quarter-million-dollar stakes in the inaugural synthetic championships Saturday at Turfway Park is the perfect representation of the fun of handicapping all-weather racing.
The My Charmer Stakes is race four on a 10-race card and begins an all-stakes Pick 4 that involves all four of the synthetic championships. It attracted a competitive field of 11 fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles, and despite the large field there is not a lot of pace.
Leaning on a pace-advantaged horse can seem counterintuitive to synthetic handicapping, which has a reputation for favoring off-the-pace runners.
Looking at the Horse Racing Nation Track Trends Tool over the past 13 months, yes, closers fare slightly better. But by no means is a front-end trip a downgrade, especially in a race such as the My Charmer where a horse appears to have an advantage in that regard.
Dana’s Beauty has run well in her last five starts on turf, winning a couple stakes and staying in form the past nine months, but she excels on synthetic. Dana’s Beauty won the Latonia Stakes at this track and distance in March, scoring gate-to-wire from post 10. She has a better post this time, and nothing in her recent efforts suggests she cannot replicate her best here.
Forever Dixie has the class edge here, racing almost exclusively in graded stakes this year at Woodbine. She certainly fits, and there is no reason to think she will not be running late as usual, but on paper I think Dana’s Beauty is a more likely winner.
Of course, we do not play the game on paper, so odds do come in to play. I could see where Dana’s Beauty is a clear favorite, and that might make Forever Dixie worth more of a look, especially considering she is moving to an inside post after starting from post 11 of 14 and 8 of 11 in her last two starts.
Ghostly Gal is the other in here likely to take money, but I like her least of the three I’ve mentioned. She is forward like Dana’s Beauty, but the Brisnet Pace Ratings say she will not be able to keep up with that one. If she tries, then things set up even better for Forever Dixie.
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