Missouri football vs Mississippi State: Prediction, scouting report for Week 12 SEC showdown

Posted by Admin November 22, 2024 Football

Next stop, Starkville.

Missouri football goes on the road to face Mississippi State on Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi, for its penultimate game of the regular season and its final road contest of the year.

The Tigers (7-3, 3-3 SEC) need to win out, including their bowl game, to record a 10+-win season in back-to-back years for just the third time in program history. Mizzou lost on the road at South Carolina last Saturday, taking a late lead on a long touchdown pass from Brady Cook to Luther Burden III before the Gamecocks punched in the go-ahead score with 15 seconds left on the clock.

Mississippi State (2-8, 0-6) can no longer make a bowl game with just two wins on the season and two games left to play. The Bulldogs’ wins in 2024 have come against Eastern Kentucky and UMass.

Here is everything you need to know about Mississippi State before Saturday’s game:

Who is Mississippi State’s QB for Missouri football visit?

True freshman Michael Van Buren will quarterback the Mississippi State offense, a role he has held since transfer starter Blake Shapen went down injured for the season in the Bulldogs’ September game against Florida.

Van Buren is a freshman out of Baltimore and has thrown for an average of 176.9 yards per game for nine touchdowns and five interceptions.

The Tigers are not completely free of a mobile quarterback, but Van Buren — at least this season — hasn’t show too much ability to give opposing defenses trouble with his legs. He’s gained an average of 18.4 yards per game on QB runs, but with sacks factored into the equation he has a net negative rushing total for the year.

Losing Shapen has been a major blow for the Bulldogs. He played mostly nonconference opponents, but the Baylor transfer was throwing for an average of 243.5 yards per outing on a 68.5% completion rate. He had eight touchdowns and one interception in four appearances.

Who are the Bulldogs’ coaches?

Jeff Lebby is in his first season as Mississippi State’s head coach, replacing Zac Arnett, who was fired after one season at the helm. Lebby was formerly the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma under Brent Venables, and he now calls the offensive plays for the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs are 69th in the FBS in total offense, registering 385.5 yards per game, which is 0.3 yards more than Mizzou.

Coleman Hutzler, who has spent time as an assistant coach at each of Florida, South Carolina, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama, is MSU’s defensive coordinator. The Mississippi State defense, which has allowed 460.8 yards per game, currently ranks 127th among FBS teams. That is second-worst among Power-conference outfits.

Who are the key playmakers?

St. Louis native Kevin Coleman Jr. is MSU’s leading receiver in his first season with the Bulldogs. Coleman, who has made previous stops at Jackson State and Louisville, has caught 62 passes this season for an average of 75.6 yards per game and five total touchdowns.“Dynamic wide receiver. Really good route runner, really good yards after the catch. He’s also their punt returner,” MU coach Eli Drinkwitz said Tuesday. “As challenging a wide receiver as there is in the SEC, in my opinion.”

Lebby’s offense has a noteworthy deep ball threat in wide receiver Mario Craver, who has only caught 17 passes this year but is taking each reception an average of nearly 22 yards.

The Bulldogs go running back by committee, with Davon Booth and Johnnie Daniels sharing snaps relatively evenly and combining for about 110 yards on the ground per game. Booth has eight total touchdowns this season,

Linebacker Braden Jennings has been Mississippi State’s most disruptive pass rusher with 1.5 sacks, which tells some of the tale of MSU’s tape. In the FBS, only Temple has recorded fewer tackles for loss per game than the Bulldogs this season.

What must Mizzou do better?

Can the Tigers show more discipline in coverage, or generate enough pressure that the mistakes in the secondary are, well, secondary?

Coleman and Craver are strong enough playmakers to put the Mizzou defensive backs to the test again.

The fact Van Buren is a little less likely to hurt the Tigers on the run should ease some concerns here, as almost all of Mizzou’s coverage busts this season have come from wandering eyes turning to the quarterback while receivers get free of the defensive backs.

“It’s a combination of scheme, coaches take ownership of that; it’s combination of execution, players take ownership of that,” Drinkwitz said. “And you move on.”

Score prediction: Missouri 34, Mississippi State 21

Mississippi State has not allowed fewer than 30 points against a Power-conference opposition this season. Mizzou’s offense, even with a banged-up Brady Cook, looked like it found a new gear in the second half Saturday in South Carolina, especially with running back Nate Noel in the game.

The Tigers should walk out of Starkville with a comfortable win.