There’s just one week left in the regular season but the Big Ten’s bowl slate remains largely unfocused thanks to the volume of teams expected to land at 6-6 or 7-5 records. For the Gophers, the range of options has narrowed slightly but is still maddeningly wide. Once again, here are my odds for where Minnesota might ultimately land.

Citrus Bowl (0% – down 3%) – Illinois managed a last second comeback against Rutgers on the road, and that win plus the Gophers loss to Penn State closes the door on Minnesota finding a way to sneak into the Citrus bowl. I expect Illinois to land in Orlando, with the only real threat to them being Indiana falling out of the playoff picture.

ReliaQuest Bowl (1% – down 1%) – Iowa took care of business last week, cruising to an easy 29-13 win over Maryland. That further narrows the odds of Minnesota finding a way to get to Tampa, but I’m not quite ready to full dismiss the possibility.

If Iowa were to lose to Nebraska this weekend and Minnesota wins, Iowa would be sitting at 7-5 and not have a leg up in the win column. Could Minnesota land the ReliaQuest Bowl bid in that scenario? Yeah, I suppose they could, but I think I’d still pick Iowa over the Gophers, and if not Iowa, there’d be a case for either Nebraska or Michigan both to get the bid as well.

I can’t sit here and say it won’t happen, but I think among those four teams, Minnesota is probably the least likely to be selected.

Music City Bowl (20% – down 5%) – To me, the biggest linchpin in the Big Ten bowl slate is Michigan. At this point, we know who the Wolverines are. They are an underperforming offense, a stout defense, and a blue blood brand name with a strong fanbase and consistently high TV ratings. I suppose it’s possible that they pull off a shock upset of Ohio State, but…probably not. 

Michigan putting up 50 against Northwestern is a new high water mark for their offense, and that might be the positive sign the Big Ten needs to feel comfortable sending the Wolverines up against an SEC opponent. Northwestern isn’t great, but regardless it’s no easy feat to put up 50 points against any opponent, even if it was in part fueled by a strong defensive performance.

But there’s a decent argument to be made for Michigan in the Pinstripe Bowl as well, which we’ll talk about below. I’m leaning towards Michigan getting the trip to Nashville, but if the Wolverines instead land in New York, then the Music City Bowl would likely boil down to Nebraska or Minnesota. 

I suspect the Music City Bowl will probably advocate for Michigan, being the biggest brand available and almost assuredly a TV ratings winner even if the game isn’t all that competitive.

An alternative option the Big Ten could offer up is pairing Nebraska with a 9-3 Missouri out of the SEC, to rekindle a long-standing rivalry from the days when two schools were in the Big 12. It’s not often you get a chance to play for a rivalry trophy in a bowl game, and that matchup could be a lot of fun. 

Unfortunately, Minnesota doesn’t have anything to offer up in the way of matchup intangibles to compete with blue blood status or a long time rivalry. If the Gophers are going to land in the Music City Bowl, they need to win against Wisconsin, and probably win convincingly. The close, competitive loss to Penn State helps bolster the case that Minnesota can compete well against a potentially top 25 SEC team, but ultimately I don’t see Minnesota landing in Nashville if they finish with a 6-6 record.

Pinstripe Bowl (10% – no change) – I’ll keep beating that drum that I think the Pinstripe Bowl is an unlikely destination for the Gophers, having just played in New York two seasons ago. As I’ve also previously discussed, there was special language in the bowl selection criteria for the Big Ten around the Pinstripe Bowl, with a stated priority of getting as many different teams into that bowl as possible.

To that end, the Big Ten has two bowl eligible teams that have never played in New York and are in the right general spot in the conference pecking order to be a good fit for the Pinstripe Bowl – Nebraska and Michigan.

Michigan in particular feels like it could be a great fit for the Pinstripe Bowl this season. There’s a big Wolverine alumni base in New York City which could lend itself to strong attendance for the game in Yankee Stadium. The Big Ten might also view this as the rare chance to get Michigan, a blue blood school that has would typically be expected to be vying for a playoff spot, into the Pinstripe Bowl.

As for Nebraska, I’m not sure a game against an ACC opponent in New York City has quite the same appeal with the Cornhuskers as the Big Ten rep. The only strong argument for Nebraska in this game over Minnesota is the Gophers recent appearance and the fact that Nebraska has never appeared. It’s solid rationale, but maybe not much more than that. 

I find myself, after having written this whole article, really gravitating towards the idea of Michigan in the Pinstripe Bowl. But what’s holding me back from making that pick in my own bowl projections is that I don’t feel good about putting someone else in the Music City Bowl. If either Minnesota or Nebraska can put that strong foot forward this weekend, then I really like the fit of Michigan in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (49% – up 9%) – My odds that Minnesota lands in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl is creeping dangerously close to topping 50%, which would mean I think it’s more likely than not that the Gophers end up there. But, I’m not quite there yet.

If the Gophers beat Wisconsin on Friday, I believe the Duke’s Mayo Bowl would be the Gopher floor. I can’t see them landing any lower in the bowl slate than a trip to Charlotte. There would be arguments to be made for Nashville or, to a lesser extent, New York City, but I think Charlotte would be the odds on favorite for where Minnesota lands.

If the Gophers lose to Wisconsin, there’s still going to be a decent case for Minnesota in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, but it might become the Gophers ceiling instead of floor.

Wisconsin is unlikely to land in Charlotte due to their recent appearance in the game, but there’s a chance the Badgers could bump up to the Pinstripe Bowl or if the Big Ten decided it wanted Michigan or Nebraska in Charlotte.

Nebraska in particular could be an attractive pick, which Gophers fans would welcome if it meant a Minnesota trip to Nashville but would probably be less welcome if it meant Minnesota getting bumped further down the pecking order.

The dark horse candidate for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl would be Rutgers. If the Scarlet Knights close with a road win over Michigan State to get to 7-5, there could be a case for them to head to Charlotte instead of a 6-6 Minnesota team.

One small factor that could benefit Minnesota in that scenario is that Rutgers played Virginia Tech earlier this year. The Athletic selected the Hokies as the ACC representative, and while there could be some back and forth between the conferences to get a different ACC opponent, the Big Ten could also simply accept Virginia Tech as the opponent and that would then exclude Rutgers from this game.

Rate Bowl (12% – down 3%) – The scenario where I envision Minnesota landing in the Rate Bowl would see Michigan and Nebraska being treated as clearly above the rest of the pack in the Big Ten, which would likely require Nebraska to defeat Iowa on Black Friday. In that case, the Wolverines and Cornhuskers would split the Music City and Pinstripe bowl bids.

After that, the scenario I just discussed above with Rutgers beating Michigan State to get to 7-5 would come to pass, and the Scarlet Knights would claim the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

At that point, the Big Ten would be left with a 6-6 Minnesota having just lost to a now 6-6 Wisconsin team. Both teams would be eligible to land in Arizona, but given that the Badgers played in the Rate Bowl (at the time known as the Guaranteed Rate Bowl) in 2022 and given that Minnesota just played in Detroit last year, my expectation would be that the Big Ten would opt to send Minnesota to Phoenix and Wisconsin to Detroit.

It’s not a slam dunk that this is how everything would unfold, though. I’ve spent a lot of time operating under the assumption that the Big Ten won’t want to send Wisconsin back to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl as the conference only has that bowl tie-in every other year, and I expect in the six year contract that the conference will want to avoid a repeat placement. But, the Badgers were in that bowl game back in 2020. That’s a long enough timeframe that it’s certainly possible the Badgers could go back to Charlotte.

If that happened, then in this scenario it’s a 7-5 Rutgers team and a 6-6 Minnesota team left to split the Rate and GameAbove Sports Bowls, and at that point the pick might well be Rutgers in the Rate Bowl, leaving Minnesota banished back to Detroit.

GameAbove Sports Bowl (4% – up 2%) – The dreaded Detroit bowl game. The bane of every Gopher fan, a destination that haunts their every dream. Or perhaps I’m the only one who regularly dreams about bowl placements.

The SEC implosion last weekend helped secure Indiana’s place in the playoff rankings, in spite of Indiana falling flat against Ohio State. However, even keeping Indiana in the playoffs, I do see a path for Minnesota to wind up in Detroit. 

Consider the scenario we talked about for the Rate Bowl, where Rutgers beats Michigan State to go 7-5 and wind up claiming the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Meanwhile, Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, putting both teams at 6-6. Now, we’ll add in a flop by Nebraska on the road at Iowa, putting them at 6-6 and reintroducing doubts about just how good the Huskers are.

In that case, I put Michigan above the rest and land them in the Music City Bowl. However, with Nebraska looking shaky, the Pinstripe Bowl goes to Wisconsin (Rutgers isn’t considered because they played in New York last year). A 7-5 Rutgers squad lands in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, and we’re left with Minnesota and Nebraska.

The Big Ten would probably prefer not to put Minnesota in Detroit in back-to-back years. But Nebraska, in their first bowl game in several years, is expected to travel very well. That, combined with the prospect of setting up a Big 12 throwback match-up, would probably have the Rate Bowl campaigning hard to land Nebraska. It’s a pretty compelling argument, too, and if it wins out, Minnesota might find itself defaulting back to Detroit.

This is the tricky part of bowl projections and trying to figure out what to root for. It’d be good for Minnesota’s Music City Bowl hopes to have Nebraska fall flat against Iowa, but if the Gophers lose to Wisconsin, then it’d probably be better to have the exact opposite outcome, with Nebraska crushing Iowa.

Non-Big Ten affiliated Bowl (4% – up 1%) – Finally, we have the non-Big Ten bowl option. Take the scenario we just discussed for the GameAbove Sports Bowl and add one more wrinkle – Indiana or Penn State lose this week, or Texas A&M goes on a miracle run to win the SEC and push Indiana out of the playoffs.

In that scenario, I think Minnesota would be the likely pick to be left out of the Big Ten bowl slate, with the deciding factor being the Gophers appearance in Detroit last year and the Big Ten using that as the “tiebreaker” to push Minnesota out of the bowl slate.

An alternative scenario would see Minnesota losing to Wisconsin this weekend and Michigan State defeating Rutgers. That would give the Big Ten one extra bowl eligible team even with 4 teams from the conference making the playoffs. My gut read in that scenario is that Rutgers would be the likely team to get the non-Big Ten bowl spot, but the Gophers would be under consideration in that case as well.