Michigan State football vs. unbeaten Indiana: Scouting report and prediction

Posted by Admin November 1, 2024 Football

EAST LANSING — Free Press sports writer Chris Solari breaks down Michigan State football‘s game at home vs. unbeaten Indiana on Saturday.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan State (4-4, 2-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 13 Indiana (8-0, 5-0).

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Saturday; Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

TV/radio: Peacock (online-only); WJR-AM (760).

Line: Hoosiers by 8.

Michigan State football vs. Indiana availability report

MSU: Out: LS Kaden Schickel (left leg), DE Avery Dunn (season, undisclosed), TE Michael Masunas (shoulder, season), OL Kristian Phillips (left leg, season), OL Gavin Broscious (lower left leg, season), DB Khalil Majeed (lower body, season), CB Chance Rucker (arm), DB Dillon Tatum (lower body). Questionable: CB Ed Woods (unknown), DB Lejond Cavazos (undisclosed), LB Semaj Bridgeman (undisclosed). Suspended for first half: LB Jordan Turner (targeting).

Indiana: Questionable: QB Kurtis Rourke (right thumb), TE James Bomba (undisclosed), TE Brody Kosin (undisclosed), K Derek McCormick (undisclosed).

Scouting report

When MSU has the ball: The Spartans showed improvement again in the run game, posting 163 yards in Saturday’s 24-17 loss at Michigan. MSU ran for 375 yards combined in the past two games after rushing for 233 during a three-game losing streak that preceded a win over Iowa and loss to the Wolverines. Nate Carter had his best game as a Spartan with 118 yards and a touchdown as both he and Kay’ron Lynch-Adams show increasing vision behind an offensive line that has played five straight games together after early-season injuries. Quarterback Aidan Chiles continues to turn the ball over, with his fumble late in the first half leading to a U-M field goal. The sophomore has committed 13 of MSU’s 16 turnovers on the season, with nine interceptions and four lost fumbles. Freshman Nick Marsh showed his elusiveness after the catch on his 20-yard score. The Spartans’ red zone problems persist and they rank 129th out of 133 Football Bowl Subdivision teams after missing a chip shot field goal, scoring 70% of the time they get to the 20-yard line. That will be critical against a stellar Indiana defense that has not been as proficient in defending the red zone, tied for 64th nationally at 83.3%. Otherwise, the Hoosiers have dominated opponents, ranking fifth in the country by allowing just 269.5 total yards and fourth in giving up only 86.1 rushing yards a game. IU’s 14.1 points allowed a game rank seventh in the country after a 31-17 win over Washington last week.

When Indiana has the ball: For much of Saturday’s loss, the Spartans smothered U-M’s run game, stifling running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards to 42 yards on 22 attempts. They struggled mightily to stop run-first backup quarterback Alex Orji, whose team-high 64 yards on six carries, including a touchdown, all came in the second half. MSU gave up 82 of U-M’s 119 rushing yards after halftime, including 35 in the fourth quarter after linebacker Jordan Turner was ejected for a hit on Orji’s final run of the third. The senior is required to sit out Saturday’s first half due to NCAA targeting rules. The 265 total yards by the Wolverines was the fifth time this season coordinator Joe Rossi’s defense held an opponent to under 300 yards of offense. However, it also was the first time MSU did not force a turnover after generating nine in the first seven games. The Spartans gave up third-down conversions on seven of 12 U-M attempts, and has allowed their past four opponents to convert at a 50% clip. Correcting that will be critical against a juggernaut Indiana offense that ranks third in the nation at a 54% third-down conversion rate despite only facing third downs 87 times this season, tied for 11th-fewest in the FBS. The Hoosiers have dominated defenses early and often: Their 209 first downs are second-most in the nation. Indiana sits sixth in total offense (487.6 yards) and No. 2 in scoring (46.5 points), converting 93.6% of its red-zone opportunities to rank 13th.

Know the foe

Who’s the QB? Indiana starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke remains questionable for Saturday after missing the Hoosiers’ win over Washington, though his head coach stated Thursday that Rourke would play Saturday following surgery on an injured thumb on his throwing hand. The 6-foot-5, 223-pound Ohio transfer has been an integral force in Indiana’s offensive outburst this season, leading the FBS in passing efficiency and ranking second in the nation and Big Ten with a 74.6% completion percentage (135-for-181). Rourke, a Canadian, has thrown for 1,941 yards with 15 touchdowns to three interceptions. His replacement last week, backup Tayven Jackson, went 11-for-19 for 124 yards with an interception and a passing and rushing score.

Cig-nature wins: “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me.” Those were the words of veteran coach Curt Cignetti after being hired in December by the Hoosiers. So far, his confidence has proved prophetic. The 63-year-old has Indiana off to its best start since 1967, the last time it won nine games, won the Big Ten title and went to the Rose Bowl. Cignetti went 52-9 in five seasons at James Madison, including a 19-4 mark after moving up from the Football Championship Subdivision to the FBS in 2022. In his 14 seasons as a head coach at Division II Indiana (Pennsylvania), FCS-level Elon and JMU, Cignetti is 127-35. However, he has never gone unbeaten at any of his previous stops, and did not win a national title at either lower division.

Lots of clicks: Indiana’s 24 sacks are tied for 14th in the country and with Oregon for the Big Ten lead. JMU transfer defensive end Mikail Kamara’s seven sacks are the most in the conference and tied for eighth in the FBS. The 6-1, 265-pound junior also is 18th nationally and second in the conference with 10 tackles for a loss, while the Hoosiers 6.8 TFLs per game rank 26th nationally and trail only Ohio State in the Big Ten.

Chris Solari’s two cents

Starting stats: As one of only four teams in the nation to score first in each of its games, Indiana is outscoring opponents 87-0 in the first quarter — the only team pitching a shutout. MSU is outscoring opponents in the first quarter, 39-24, but has squandered chances for more despite long drives on their opening possession.

That included a red-zone fumble at Oregon, a turnover on downs against Ohio State, a field goal against Iowa and a missed field goal, after a delay of game penalty, against U-M. Carter’s score with 10 seconds left in the first quarter Saturday was the Spartans’ first TD in the opening quarter since the Sept. 14 win over Prairie View A&M.

Clock control: Despite the disparity in scoring offenses, the Spartans and Hoosiers both have possessed the ball more than their opponents this season. MSU ranks 21st at 31:48 of possession time, boosted the past two weeks with dominating ball control against Iowa (39:44) and U-M (37:05). Indiana ranks 35th at 31:23.

Prediction

Chiles and the offense continue to work to shorten games by milking the clock with the evolving run game. However, the Hoosiers’ ability to strike quickly early and late prove the difference, with a fourth-quarter touchdown sending the Spartans into their second bye week with a second straight loss. The pick: Indiana 23, MSU 17.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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