Michigan State basketball vs. Western Michigan tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

Posted by author December 30, 2024 Basketball

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• What: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan

• When: 3 p.m. Monday

• Where: Breslin Center

• TV/Radio: Big Ten Newtwork/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 10-2 and ranked No. 18 in both the Coaches and Associated Press polls and is No. 15 via the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Western Michigan is 3-8, unranked by the major polls and No. 288 on Kenpom.

• Betting line: MSU -27

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 717-297 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Western Michigan — Dwayne Stephens is 23-49 in his third season as a head coach, all with the Broncos.

• Series: MSU leads 28-11 all-time. MSU won early season meetings in 2021, 2020 and 2019. Before that, the programs amazingly hadn’t met since 1998.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.2

F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.7

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.3

G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.3

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.8

WMU

C (10) Max Burton (6-10) 7.0

PF (20) Owen Lobsinger (6-9) 11.4

SF (22) Markhi Strickland (6-8) 12.5

SG (7) Brandon Muntu (6-4) 7.2

PG (2) Chansey Willis (6-2) 17.0

• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off an 86-69 win over Florida Atlantic just before Christmas and appear to be healthy and in sync as the Big Ten season nears. After Monday’s game against Western Michigan, the Spartans are back in conference play until March, beginning Friday night at Ohio State. MSU has all sorts of connections to WMU, beyond long-time assistant coach Dwayne Stephens, who’s the Broncos’ head coach. MSU assistant Thomas Kelley was an assistant at WMU from 2018-22 under Steve Hawkins, Clayton Bates and, briefly, under Stephens, before returning to MSU. Former MSU graduate assistants Chris Fowler and Manny Dosanjh are on Stephens’ coaching staff. And MSU assistant Saddi Washington was for a time WMU’s all-time leading scorer and led the Broncos’ to the 1998 NCAA tournament and a first-round win over Clemson. Washington likely could have had the WMU head coaching job, had he wanted it, in both 2020 and 2022, when he was an assistant at Michigan.

• WMU update: The Broncos are 3-8 largely because of lost leads and lost bodies. They played seven games without leading scorer and point guard Chansey Willis, and key contributors Donovan Williams and JaVaughn Hannah have missed time, as well. They were all back, however, as the Broncos blew a 22-point lead in the final seven minutes against Valparaiso just before Christmas. WMU has a few notable performances, both wins and defeats. The Broncos were up 10 points in the second half at Dayton (No. 31 in Kenpom) and led Butler on the road at the half, as well. They beat Youngstown State which has won six straight games since. The key for WMU will be conference play. The MAC is a one-bid NCAA tournament league and so all that really matters is how the Broncos are playing come January and beyond. WMU has a local connection in starting center Max Burton, a redshirt sophomore from Williamston, who’s averaging 7.0 points and 5.6 rebounds for the Broncos.

• Matchup analysis: WMU’s Chansey Willis, a juco transfer from Henry Ford College and former Michigan Mr. Basketball, should going to be a terrific lead guard in the MAC and is someone who will be able to hold his own in a matchup with MSU’s guards. He’s a smooth player, who’s especially effective creating on the drive and in transition. He can score and dish, and having him in the lineup (after missing seven games) should change the Broncos significantly.

WMU hasn’t shot the ball or defended very well this season to this point. The Broncos do, however, rebound on both ends at an elite level, including being among the top 10 in the country in keeping opponents off the offensive glass, per Kenpom. Owen Lobsinger is capable stretch 4-man who will take five 3s a game. He’s only been hitting 33% this year. But he can score inside and out. And when WMU has been at its best, Lobsinger and 6-8 forward Markhi Strickland — an inside-the-arc guy — have caused problems for opponents. Shooting guard Brandon Muntu was making 42% of his 3s a year ago before getting hurt. But, like Lobsinger, he’s been at 33% this season. WMU has good size throughout the lineup, including in the backcourt and on the wings. The Broncos look the part. They just haven’t defended or shot like it yet.

• Prediction: WMU is better than its record and should be competitive in the MAC if the Broncos are healthy the rest of the way. But they haven’t shown enough 40-minute grit or offensive consistency yet to think they can stay in this game.

• Make it: MSU 87, WMU 63

MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.