Michigan State basketball vs. Monmouth tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

Posted by Admin November 4, 2024 Basketball

• What: Michigan State vs. Monmouth

• When: 7 p.m. Monday

• Where: Breslin Center

• TV/Radio: Streaming on Big Ten Network-Plus/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 197

• Records/Rankings: This is the season opener for both teams, neither of which is ranked in the preseason polls. MSU is coming off a 20-15 season (10-10 in the Big Ten), which ended with a second-round NCAA tournament loss to North Carolina. Monmouth went 18-15 last season, including 10-8 in the Coastal Athletic Association and did not reach postseason play.

• Betting line: MSU by 19.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 707-295 beginning his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Monmouth — King Rice is 207-208 beginning his 14th season as a head coach, all with the Hawks.

• Series: This is the first-ever meeting between the two programs.

Projected lineups

Michigan State

C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 9.8 ppg* (2023-24 average)

F (34) Xavier Booker (6-11) 3.7

G (8) Frankie Fidler (6-7) 20.1*

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 10.4

PG (1) Jeremy Fears (6-2) 3.5

Monmouth

C (6) Jordan Meka (6-8) 0.4

F (13) Jack Collins (6-5) 10.7

G (1) Abdi Bashir Jr. (6-6) 6.3

G (3) Madison Durr (6-5) 11.9*

G (11) Aric Demmings (6-0) 7.5*

*At previous school

• MSU update: The Spartans begin their 2024-25 season hoping to avoid their opening-night fate from a year ago, when they lost at home to James Madison. That was a more dangerous foe, but will probably do the trick in getting the Spartans’ attention. MSU enters the season with a number of questions about lineups and rotations still to be sorted out, including the starting lineup (listed above), which remained consistent for both exhibition games, but, after Tuesday’s performance against Ferris State, Tom Izzo hinted could change. MSU is healthy, other than redshirt freshman guard Gehrig Normand, who’s expected back from a knee injury in the coming weeks.

MORE: Couch: Analyzing Michigan State basketball’s 2024-25 roster, player by player

• Monmouth update: Forward Jaret Valencia is reportedly unlikely to play Monday night, still working his way back from a sports hernia. If the athletic 6-9 redshirt sophomore can’t go, that’s a big blow for the Hawks, who might rely on Georgia Tech transfer Jordan Meka to start in his place. Monmouth is most remembered for their first two seasons under King Rice from 2015-17, when they won 56 games and twice made the NIT. In the first of those two seasons, they beat UCLA, USC, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Rutgers — and were memorably snubbed by the NCAA tournament selection committee after losing in their conference tournament.

• Matchup analysis: Wings Jack Collins and Abdi Bashir are both willing scorers stepping into bigger roles for Monmouth. Collins is a tough-shot taker and a good rebounder and defender. He’s the key for Monmouth. The Hawks aren’t overly big inside, starting four guards/wings, so it’ll be interesting to see how Izzo plays the matchups, especially if MSU’s big guys struggle to assert their dominance. Monmouth’s defensive style allows for good looks from beyond the arc. If the Spartans are hitting from deep, this shouldn’t be close.

• Prediction: It’s hard to see this being overly competitive, even if Monmouth winds up having a good year in its league. The Hawks don’t appear to have enough firepower or interior size to pull an upset. Helping the Spartans — MSU’s entire roster is still trying to lock up roles and minutes in the lineup. This should be a motivated group, individually right now as much as anything.

• Make it: MSU 79, Monmouth 60

MORE: Couch: Predicting Michigan State’s basketball season – Kansas and Maui, the Big Ten and March Madness