Michigan State basketball at USC tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State at USC
• When: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
• Where: Galen Center, Los Angeles
• TV/Radio: Streaming on Peacock/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 372 (USC broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 18-2 overall, 9-0 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 7 in both the Coaches Poll and in The Associated Press Poll, and is No. 14 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. USC is 12-8 overall, 4-5 in the Big Ten and unranked in the polls. The Trojans are No. 67 nationally, per Kenpom.
• Projected betting line: MSU -5 (via Kenpom’s projection, which is how Vegas sets the betting line these days)
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 725-297 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. USC — Eric Musselman is 232-101 in his 10th season as a collegiate head coach. This is his first season with the Trojans after stops at Arkansas and Nevada. He also coached the NBA’s Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings.
• Series: MSU leads 4-3 all-time. This is their first meeting as Big Ten foes. Most recently they met in the first round of the 2023 NCAA tournament, with MSU winning 72-62.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.6
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.6
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.6
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 8.3
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.6
USC
C (33) Josh Cohen (6-10) 7.4
F (7) Chibuzo Agbo (6-7) 11.6
F (0) Saint Thomas (6-7) 11.1
G (6) Wesley Yates (6-4) 11.4
G (1) Desmond Claude (6-6) 16.1
• MSU update: The Spartans head into February having won 13 straight, without dropping a single game in December or January. If they win one more, Tom Izzo will tie Bob Knight’s Big Ten wins record. With a win Saturday, he could break the record Tuesday night at UCLA. MSU is unbeaten in league play for a number of reasons, but its defensive numbers really stand out — No. 1 in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense, per Kenpom, and also tops in 3-point defense, block rate and second in 2-point defense. They’re also No. 1 in conference play in offensive efficiency and offensive rebounding percentage.
MORE: Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State’s 73-51 win over Minnesota
• USC update: The Trojans have some good wins and not-so-great losses. They won at Illinois (though the Illini were playing without their leading scorer), at Nebraska and beat Washington on the road by 24 points. USC also has double-digit home losses to Wisconsin and Michigan, and a neutral-site no-show to Saint Mary’s on Thanksgiving Day, a 71-36 defeat. This is a USC roster with 10 transfers, including Terrence Williams III, from Michigan, off the bench, and leading scorer and point guard Desmond Claude, from Xavier.
MORE: Couch: 4 reasons Michigan State’s win over Rutgers was promising for the Spartans’ long-term hopes
• Matchup analysis: Claude is a dangerous and versatile player, a 6-foot-6 wing/lead guard who had 34 points in USC’s win at Illinois. He causes most of his trouble inside the arc and on the drive. He’s a problem when he gets downhill. Saint Thomas is another wing who’s capable of a 20- or 30-point night. These guys fit the prototypical Eric Musselman team. Musselman loves wing-type players that can take advantage of matchups and also run the offense. Freshman guard Wesley Yates and senior forward Chibuzo Agbo are capable scorers, too, and stronger outside shooters than the other two. USC’s weakness is how it defends the paint and its rebounding, on the offensive end especially. USC has lots of wings and decent length, but doesn’t protect the rim all that well.
MORE: Couch: MSU’s basketball team shows it’s capable of winning what would be a meaningful Big Ten title
• Prediction: I think nearly half the crowd will be MSU fans and that’ll help make for another semi-road environment for the Spartans — like Northwestern, perhaps. USC is a capable team with a lot of experienced players. The Trojans are unpredictable from game to game, however. MSU, on the other hand, has been pretty consistent.
• Make it: MSU 78, USC 72
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
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