Miami Dolphins predictions vs Green Bay Packers: NFL experts pick Thanksgiving game winner

Posted by Admin November 26, 2024 NFL

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The Miami Dolphins have crawled back into the playoff mix. Can they return to .500 with a Thanksgiving win in the cold against the Green Bay Packers?

With Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback, the Dolphins have risen to 5-6 off a three-game winning streak. Tua is coming off his best game since returning from his Week 2 concussion, throwing for 317 yards and four touchdowns, two to De’Von Achane and one apiece to Jaylen Waddle and Jonnu Smith.

But beating the Packers (8-3) won’t be easy, especially in the freezing cold (and possible snow). Tua is 0-7 when the temperature is 40 degrees or below, and his 2022 season ended against the Packers in a Christmas game. While top cornerback Jaire Alexander is dealing with a knee injury, quarterback Jordan Love has led the Packers to wins in five of the past six games, while Josh Jacobs ran for three touchdowns in Sunday’s rout over the 49ers.

Can the Dolphins snap their cold spell and keep the playoff train rolling? NFL reporters and analysts weigh in with their picks:

Sporting News: Packers win close

Vinnie Iyer picked Green Bay to win 24-20: “Tua Tagovailoa has the new-look Miami offense rolling with efficient, short-to-intermediate passing playing off the run. The Dolphins have taken full advantage of bad defenses in favorable weather, but going to Lambeau against a dangerous defense is a different story. The compressed passing game becomes more exploitable by a Packers team that can rev up pressure to force Tua turnovers.”

Bill Bender predicted a 31-26 final: “The Dolphins are a trendy upset pick here given how they’ve looked with Tua Tagovailoa. How will Miami fare in what is expected to be snowy weather at Lambeau Field? Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games where the temperature is 40 degrees or less, and he had three interceptions in his last matchup against the Packers. Miami has a top-10 run defense, so Jordan Love will have to make plays, too.”

Watch Dolphins vs Packers live on Fubo (free trial)

John Breech wrote: “The Lions and Chiefs are tied for the best record in the NFL at 10-1, and then you have Tua, who has actually been playing better than both of them during the month of November. The fact that Tua is playing well could be a problem for the Packers because every loss they’ve had has come against a team with a good offense. The Packers have faced four teams this year that rank in the top-10 in terms of offensive yards per game and they’ve gone 1-3 in those games. Their only win came on Sunday against San Francisco, but the 49ers were starting a backup quarterback, so I’m not sure I can even count that.”

All four members of PackersNews.com’s picks panel backed Green Bay. Pete Dougherty predicted a 27-21 score: “(The Dolphins) have the fastest receiving corps in the league with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, so if Jaire Alexander (knee) misses a second straight game, the Packers secondary could be in for a tough day. But Jordan Love in the past two weeks looks healthier and sharper than he has all season, and the Packers will be hosting the southern-most NFL franchise on a late-November night with the early forecast predicting a game-time temperature in the mid-to upper-20s. Expect to see a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks running between the tackles. They could be the difference in this one.”

SI.com: Bet the Dolphins

Iain MacMillan wrote: “The Packers have benefited from an average turnover margin of +0.5 per game, the seventh-best mark in the NFL. If the Dolphins can hang on to the football, I have no doubt they can cover this spread.”

Mike Allen writes: “The Miami defense will not quit. And in a potentially low-scoring game with bad weather, those three points count even more. Both teams have strong defenses and are particularly effective against the pass, with both teams allowing about 5 yards per attempt for the season. Tagovailoa is super hot right now, but the weather isn’t. Give me the under in this one. I like it now. And if the forecast worsens, we’ll be more than happy to be sitting north of 47.”

Dolphins vs Packers game odds, spread and lines

Green Bay is favored to defeat Miami, according to the BetMGM NFL odds. Looking to wager? Check out the best mobile sports betting apps offering betting promos in 2024.

All odds as of Tuesday, November 26.

Spread: Packers (-3)
Over/under: 47 points
Money line: Dolphins +145, Packers -175

Green Bay weather forecast for Thanksgiving game

Weather.com predicts a low of 19 degrees with cloudy skies Thursday night in Green Bay. Winds are expected to blow out of the west-northwest at 10-15 mph. There is a 5% chance of snow.

Where to watch Dolphins vs Packers: Time, TV channel, streaming

When: 8:20 p.m. Thursday, November 28
Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: NBC
Streaming: Peacock | Fubo (free trial)

Dolphins vs. Packers will broadcast nationally on NBC in Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season. Mike Tirico and Jason Garrett will call the game from the booth at Lambeau Field, with Melissa Stark reporting from the sidelines. Streaming options for the game include Peacock, NBC’s subscription streaming service, and Fubo, which offers a free trial to new subscribers.

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