Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

Selection Sunday is just a hop, skip and a jump away, which means the men’s NCAA Tournament bubble is really feeling the squeeze. Teams near the cutline sit on a knife’s edge; a key win or a bad loss can have a profound impact on their chances of earning an at-large bid.

The dwindling number of games before tourney time also opens up the doors for more teams to move toward safety. There simply isn’t enough time left for many teams to collapse and tumble out of the field.

BYU, for one, has erased any doubt: The Cougars will be wearing home jerseys in the Round of 64 thanks to a wildly impressive seven-game winning streak. Memphis and New Mexico have both dodged enough bad-loss traps and will be dancing no matter what happens in the next 10 days.

In the SEC, Vanderbilt picked up a huge win over Missouri last weekend to lock up a bid (even with Tuesday’s loss to Arkansas), and Georgia ripped off two more road wins to back up its vital victory over Florida. Georgia could probably be fairly called a Lock as well; Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast gives the Dawgs at a 99.6 percent chance to get into the field.

Elsewhere, Baylor and Gonzaga both made moves towards Selection Sunday security. West Virginia continues to stay just enough above the true danger zone, as well.

Despite all of that, there is plenty still to be decided. What happens to Drake, UC San Diego and VCU if they do not win their conference tournaments? Can Texas and Arkansas actually make it 14 bids for the SEC? And will Xavier sneak in as a fifth Big East representative?

As mid-major conference tournaments reach a crescendo over the next few days, those ticket punchers will steal the headlines. But don’t forget about the bare-knuckle brawls to get to the First Four in Dayton, either.

For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below.

• Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
• Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
• In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
• On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration — a win away from being a win away.
• Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
• Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.

Movement

Up to Lock: BYU, Memphis, New Mexico, UConn, Vanderbilt
Up to Should Be In: Baylor, Georgia, Gonzaga
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: Colorado State
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: Cincinnati, George Mason, San Francisco, TCU
Dropped from On the Fringe: Pitt, Utah

ACC

Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: None

In The Mix

North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-10 record vs. Q1, well under .500 vs. Q1/Q2.
Looking Ahead: Credit the Tar Heels for making this interesting. They continue to demolish their opponents, and per Bart Torvik, their offense ranks fourth in Division I since Feb. 15. Sadly, that stretch included just one Q2 victory, so it did not actually alter their at-large chances much. UNC did, however, set the stage for a gargantuan opportunity against Duke on Saturday. Without a win there, the Heels’ best chance would be finding their way to the bottom half of the ACC tournament bracket and beating at least one of Clemson or Louisville (and they might need both).

SMU
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, excellent road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins and no scheduled chances, poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: The Ponies nearly ended the discussion on Tuesday, needing a tip-in with two seconds left to survive a Q3 home game against Syracuse. That was on the heels of a disappointing loss at Stanford over the weekend. Even with competitive resume metrics, SMU is a decent distance from the cutline; the Mustangs’ profile is a clearly worse version of UNC and Xavier. Adding another Q2 win at Florida State on Saturday will not change much. The Mustangs need multiple big wins (or a win over Duke) in the ACC tournament and some calamities above them to reach the field.

Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Solid resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The Demon Deacons had one big shot to rewrite their narrative ahead of the ACC Tournament … and they got sand-blasted by 33 points at Duke on national TV. The Deacs hang on in this category because their resume metrics are still very much in at-large territory (on par or better than that of Boise State, Nebraska, Arkansas, Ohio State and Xavier). But their quality metrics are miserable, their headlining Michigan win is barely still in Q1A, and the general vibe around their at-large candidacy is dismal. Wake needs a key win (or, more likely, two) in the ACC tournament.

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Big 12

Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: Baylor
In the Mix: West Virginia
On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU

Should Be In

Baylor
What They Need: The Bears beat two non-tournament foes this week, taking a pivotal bubble head-to-head tilt at TCU on Tuesday. Baylor is now guaranteed to finish at least four games over .500, avoiding a dicey overall record issue, and its home game against Houston on Saturday is all upside. Six Q1 wins combined with excellent quality metrics have the Bears in a good spot. Even a Houston loss plus an immediate loss in the Big 12 tournament should not eliminate the Bears without bid-stealer mayhem.

In The Mix

West Virginia
Profile Strengths: Four Q1A wins (tied for best of the bubble teams), no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Still under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: The Mountaineers continued their “split the week” ways, narrowly swiping a victory at Utah on Tuesday after getting crushed at red-hot BYU on Saturday. West Virginia has sat inside the field for a while now, and Darian DeVries’ squad has treaded water well enough since its terrific first two-and-a-half months to remain comfortable. Taking two bad losses to close the year — home to UCF on Saturday and in the Big 12 tournament opener — would make this a conversation, so I will refrain from bumping WVU up a category until after this weekend’s clash with the Knights.

Big East

Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None

In The Mix

Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win, 6-8 road/neutral record.
Looking Ahead: The Musketeers had a huge week, beating Creighton at home for a high-end Q2 win and then disposing of Butler on the Bulldogs’ senior night. Their six-game winning streak has them lurking right along the at-large threshold, and they need to extend that run to seven against Providence on Saturday. That would set up a Quad 1 quarterfinal at Madison Square Garden against one of the Big East’s NCAA Tournament teams, giving Xavier a massive opportunity to barge into the field.

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Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State
On the Fringe: None

In The Mix

Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-12 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: The Hoosiers were oh-so-close to a major needle-mover at Oregon on Tuesday night, leading the Ducks 64-63 with 90 seconds left on the clock. That would have completed an impressive Pacific Northwest swing after IU mauled Washington on Saturday. Instead, the Hoosiers gave up a 10-0 run down the stretch and took their 12th Q1 loss. Still, Indiana remains in control of its own destiny with a clean resume and a big bubble battle against Ohio State looming on Saturday. Including the Big Ten tournament, it’s possible Indiana gets in with one more win, but two more would be highly advisable.

Nebraska
Profile Strengths: Five Q1 wins, solid 9-11 record against the top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Took two Q3 losses, weakening metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Cornhuskers took “the agony of defeat” to a new level over the last 10 days. After a narrow 49-46 home loss to Michigan last Monday, Nebraska added a buzzer-beating Q3 home loss to Minnesota on Saturday and a double-overtime heartbreaker at Ohio State on Tuesday. Even Brice Williams’ program-record 43 points were not enough to put away the Buckeyes. That crushing three-game stretch has Nebraska in need of wins, plural, so the Huskers better beat Iowa on Saturday and then dial in for a pivotal Big Ten tournament.

Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor overall record, well under .500 against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: A win is a win is a win, whether it takes 40 minutes or 50 minutes or even longer. Ohio State embraced that mantra on Tuesday night, squeaking by Nebraska in a game with immense bubble implications. The Buckeyes avoided the dreaded “only two games over .500” eyesore for now, but the job is far from finished. Another showdown awaits on Saturday at Indiana, where the Buckeyes must bounce back from that marathon against another bubble rival. Dropping that game and the Big Ten tournament opener would likely lock Ohio State out of the field, but a couple of wins could nudge it above the First Four.

SEC

Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Georgia
In the Mix: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

Georgia
What They Need: Georgia saw Vanderbilt rapidly climb the S-curve ladder and thought, “Hey, why don’t we do that, too?” The Bulldogs’ 2-0 week on the road may not have featured wins over NCAA Tournament teams (Texas and South Carolina), but adding a Q1 and Q2 win to their ever-improving team sheet has pushed Georgia’s overall profile into strong shape. Both their resume metrics and quality metrics are comfortably in at-large territory. The Dawgs would likely lock things up with a win on Saturday against the aforementioned Commodores.

In The Mix

Arkansas
Profile Strengths: Two elite wins away from home, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Disappointing 7-12 record against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: It was an eventful week for the Hogs. Without Adou Thiero, they split road games at South Carolina and Vanderbilt … but it was the manner in which they did so that drew attention. Arkansas laid an all-time offensive egg at South Carolina, mustering just 14 points in the first half and never remotely competing with the SEC’s worst team. But a dominant second half in Nashville on Tuesday may have erased most of the harm caused by the Gamecocks. The end result is that Arkansas is again squarely on the bubble, so beating Mississippi State on Saturday in Fayetteville is borderline mandatory.

Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Elite top-end wins relative to the bubble, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Accumulating a lot of losses, conference record eyesore?
Looking Ahead: Say it with me: “Conference records are not on the selection committee’s team sheets.” Whether they should be or not is a different discussion, but the fact is that committee members are not told to use it as a criteria. Excluding that 5-12 SEC mark from consideration, Oklahoma has a solid case, especially after picking up a Q1 win against Missouri on Wednesday night. That helped offset a heartbreaker at Ole Miss on Saturday. The Sooners’ regular season finale is a huge one: a road trip to Texas in what almost amounts to an elimination game.

Texas
Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, five Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 8-13 record against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Texas stopped the bleeding of a 1-6 stretch on Tuesday night, halting an alarming slump as March rolled around. Adding a Q1A road win at Mississippi State is a huge way to shift the narrative, and though the Longhorns are almost certainly still outside the field, they now have a realistic chance. A Red River bubble brawl awaits on Saturday in Austin, and the loser could be eliminated from true at-large contention.

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The Rest

Locks: Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s
Should Be In: Gonzaga, Utah State
In the Mix: Boise State, Drake, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: Dayton, George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco

Should Be In

Gonzaga
What They Need: The Zags’ dip into bubble peril was quick. They added two Q1 road wins in the past 10 days, thrashing Santa Clara and San Francisco to solidify a resume in need of key wins. Gonzaga will almost certainly dance even if it loses in the WCC semifinals, but taking care of business there would ease any bid stealer concerns. The conversation around Mark Few’s team now shifts to seeding, as their “predictive metrics monster” profile is one of the more baffling cases seen in recent seasons.

Utah State
What They Need: Utah State got walloped at Colorado State over the weekend, keeping the Aggies below true Lock status and putting their seeding into a concerning range. At 24-6 overall with zero bad losses, the Aggies are still in very strong shape to go dancing, but losing a third straight game this weekend — a Q4 home tilt against Air Force — would throw their case into disarray. Best to take care of business and erase any doubt.

In The Mix

Boise State
Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, resume metrics still slightly low.
Looking Ahead: The late-charging Broncos continued their push towards the field, handling their business on the road at Fresno State and Air Force. Nothing earth-shattering there, but they were necessary victories to stay in the hunt. Boise State now hosts Colorado State, which is nearly as hot as the Broncos themselves recently. The Rams need this one a little more, but the Broncos are not exactly in comfortable shape, so adding another Q2 win would be highly beneficial.

Drake
Profile Strengths: Gaudy overall record, two key power conference wins, great resume metrics..
Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, only five Q1/Q2 games.
Looking Ahead: The Bulldogs dodged a giant bullet on Sunday, squeaking by Missouri State (the MVC’s last place team) in overtime for the second time this season. Drake is now 27-3 overall and carries the distinct honor of being the only undefeated team against the top two quadrants in the country (5-0). The Bulldogs’ win over Vanderbilt continues to age well. Getting to 29 wins while reaching the Arch Madness title game should be enough, but nothing is certain while other bid stealers lurk. At minimum, their resume metrics strongly indicate the profile of an at-large team.

San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-7 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: San Diego State did what a true bubble team does: a 1-1 week, with a disappointing loss at UNLV in the season’s final week for the second straight campaign. That keeps the Aztecs squarely in the at-large mix, though as things currently stand, they probably remain on the right side of the cutline. The Houston win continues to age like a classic Bordeaux. Beating Nevada on Saturday will be crucial; the Wolf Pack are close enough to a Q3 loss at home that it is best not to risk it.

VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong overall and road/neutral record, 5-4 against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: Two more wins for the Rams this week, as they blitzed Davidson at home and handled Duquesne in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, both are Q3 games, so the Rams’ profile continues to lack high-end heft. But they have gone 15-2 (so far) in a top-10 conference, and their only bad loss came in overtime to Seton Hall in November. Should VCU need an at-large bid, it is probably in decent shape, but comparing the Rams to power-conference bubblers is a tricky task. Completing a sweep of Dayton on Saturday to finish out a dominant A-10 campaign would be a nice boost.

UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 4-2 record against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: UC Irvine may be drawing dead for an at-large bid, given that it would need to lose in the Big West tournament in order to require one. A neutral-site defeat to UC San Diego would not be damaging, but that is also the only game left in which a win would really move the needle in the right direction. As it stands, Irvine’s resume metrics are sandwiched between Oklahoma, Xavier, Boise State and Nebraska, so the Anteaters are not fully eliminated just yet. Juicing their quality metrics with blowout wins at UC Davis (Thursday) and UCSB (Saturday) would be beneficial.

UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, quickly improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities.
Looking Ahead: The Tritons carried their February chokehold of the Big West over into March, picking up a Q2 win at CSUN last Thursday before disemboweling Cal State Fullerton 100-55 over the weekend. UC San Diego has now won 11 games in a row, going unblemished since mid-January. Ten of those wins were by double-digits, and half of them were by 20-plus. Two more blowouts could be in store: the Tritons host Long Beach State on Thursday and then head to UC Davis on Saturday. UCSD would, at the very minimum, be a Selection Sunday lightning rod should it end up needing an at-large bid.

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(Photos of Jeremiah Fears and R.J. Davis: Alonzo Adams, Bob Donnan / Imagn Images)