We’ve got another exciting Western Conference contest on Friday’s NBA schedule coming out of the All-Star Break as the Dallas Mavericks will host the New Orleans Pelicans. Dallas is 30-26 overall and 17-11 at home, while New Orleans is 13-42 overall and 4-23 on the road. The Mavericks have won two of their three matchups this season, most recently defeating New Orleans, 137-136, on the road on Jan. 29. Anthony Davis (adductor) remains out for Dallas.

Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Mavs are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Pelicans vs. Mavericks odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 238.5 points. Before entering any Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second half of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-104 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-9 (67%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Dallas vs. New Orleans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Pelicans vs. Mavs:

• Mavericks vs. Pelicans spread: Mavericks -5.5
• Mavericks vs. Pelicans over/under: 238.5 points
• Mavericks vs. Pelicans money line: Mavericks -209, Pelicans: +173
• NO: The Over has hit in six of the last eight Pelicans games
• DAL: The Mavericks have covered the spread in six straight games
• Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Mavericks vs. Pelicans streaming: FuboTV (Try for free) 

Why the Pelicans can cover

The Pelicans are playing their first game out of the All-Star Break and most recently defeated the Kings, 140-133, in overtime. CJ McCollum had 43 points as the dominant scorer with Zion Williamson (conditioning) out, but the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft should be back for Friday to provide another scoring threat. Williamson is averaging 24.4 points and 7.4 rebounds over his 18 games this season, and he had 33 points, nine rebounds and seven assists when he last played on Feb. 12.

New Orleans is facing a Mavericks team battling key injuries with centers Daniel Gafford (knee) out and Dwight Powell (hip) doubtful. PJ Washington (ankle) is questionable, so even if he plays he’ll likely be less than 100%, and Davis remains out. Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado has provided a spark with back-to-back 18-point performances for the Pelicans, and Trey Murphy III had 18 points, nine rebounds and 11 assists against the Kings. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover

The Mavericks entered the All-Star Break with four victories over their last five games, including winning their final two contests even without Davis. Kyrie Irving had 42 points in a 111-107 win over the Warriors on Feb. 12, and Dallas defeated Miami, 118-113, the next night without Irving. The nine-time All-Star guard is off the injury report as he should be well rested as Dallas plays its first game after the break, and he scored at least 30 points in three of his last five games.

Despite all the injuries and off-the-court distractions from the Luka Doncic trade, Dallas is 6-1 against the spread (ATS), including covering the spread in six straight, since the move. Dallas was the underdog in five of those six games but won four of them outright, and when the Mavericks were 3-point favorites, they won by 11 points. The oddsmakers may not be giving this team enough respect and given their ATS success lately, that trend can continue on Friday. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks

The model has simulated Pelicans vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, projecting 229 combined points, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavs vs. Pelicans, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pelicans vs. Mavs spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-104 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.