LONDON —

International visitors will be the engine behind holiday spending in central London, according to a report by New West End Company, which represents more than 600 retail, property and hospitality businesses in the neighborhood.

The report said festive spending in November and December is expected to reach 1.7 billion pounds, a 3.2 percent increase over the corresponding period last year.  

Growth will come from international tourists, whose spend is expected to rise 5.8 percent. By comparison, domestic consumer spend will rise by 1.6 percent against a backdrop of weak confidence, high interest rates, and a new Labour government that plans to raise a range of taxes over the next 12 months.

According to New West End Company, which lobbies for businesses in Mayfair, Soho and Oxford and Regent streets, the weekend of Dec. 7-8 is forecast to be the biggest spending moment pre-Christmas.

Spend in the district is set to fall between 40 million and 50 million pounds during those two days.

Flight bookings to London over the festive period are already 11 percent higher than in 2023, driven by visitors from the Persian Gulf, China and the U.S. In the year to date, international visitors to London are up 9 percent, according to the report. 

The district is also expected to benefit from a last-minute gift rush, expected over the weekend of Dec. 21-22.

Dee Corsi, chief executive officer of New West End Company, said “international visitors in particular have been fundamental to the district’s recent performance, but much needs to be done to unlock this demographic’s full spending potential. What we need is a comprehensive, national tourism strategy that secures the inbound tourism economy and returns the U.K. to global competitiveness once and for all.”

New West End Company said its forecast is modeled using proprietary spending data alongside broader, forward-looking economic indicators and international visitor data across the district, which is captured year-on-year.

On a less positive note, New West End Company added that the loss of tax-free shopping in the U.K. cost West End retailers 220 million pounds in the first half of 2024, and 400 million pounds in 2023.

As reported, trade bodies, retailers and brands have been lobbying the government non-stop to reinstate the tax-free shopping program, which was canceled after the U.K. left the European Union. Businesses argue that the U.K. is losing out because tourists are opting to make their big-ticket purchases in Paris or Milan, which offer the shopping perk.

The holiday spending report comes a few weeks after the release of Walpole’s “State of London Luxury” report, which described the British capital as a “leading global hub” for luxury goods.

“London’s secret as a global luxury capital is its slick, dynamic blend of creativity, culture and luxury,” said Helen Brocklebank, chief executive officer of Walpole, a not-for-profit organization that represents 250 brands ranging from Burberry and Alexander McQueen to Rolls-Royce and Glenfiddich.

The city, she added, is “unique, and appeals to affluent residents, high-value visitors, retailers and international investors alike. The key to success, both in today’s tighter market and into the future, lies in luxury’s role as a cultural innovator, and in its ability to authentically and cannily engage with the zeitgeist.”

According to the report, London’s luxury retail landscape is thriving, with investment volumes rising by 71 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024 to total 424 million pounds. The expectation is that full-year investment volumes will exceed those of 2023.

Luxury companies have not only been purchasing property and opening stores, they’ve also been increasing the size of their holdings in prime locations, according to the report.