Snow fell all day Sunday in Buffalo, which is a sign that many of our reactions — over- and under- — are starting to set. After Monday night’s game is complete, Week 13 will be over and a mere five weeks will remain in the 2024 NFL season. By this point, we know some things …

Example: Many times this season, often following a heartbreaking loss, we have wondered whether this was really it for the Bengals — whether their once-promising season had become impossible to save. Joe Burrow and the offense played so well and so many division games seemed to remain that we have kept hope alive for one of the preseason AFC favorites. But after the Bengals gave up 44 points Sunday, permitted literally one of the best games of Russell Wilson‘s career and lost to the Steelers, it seems clear this is no longer an overreaction. ESPN’s Football Power Index has their chances to make the playoffs down to 4.9%. If you’ve been holding out hope for the Bengals, it’s probably time to shut it down.

Teams are clinching playoff spots. It’s exciting, it’s intense. And while the number of potential overreaction topics might be dwindling as conclusions are finally being made, the ones that are left seem that much more important. So let’s piece together Week 13 overreactions, where we judge a few potential takeaways as legitimate or irrational.

Jump to:
Wilson will get another big contract?
Falcons should pivot from Cousins to Penix?
Barkley will break Dickerson’s record?
McCarthy could return as Cowboys’ coach?
Bears’ next coach will come from Lions’ staff?

Russell Wilson is going to get another big contract this offseason

It was Wilson and the Steelers who put what appears to be the final nail in the 2024 Bengals’ coffin, tearing through the Cincinnati defense all day and generating turnovers with their own defense. Pittsburgh finally put the game away with a Justin Fields run that allowed it to kneel on the ball and keep Burrow from mounting one more potential game-winning drive. Wilson threw for 414 yards — the second-highest single-game total of his 13-year career — and three touchdowns.

The two teams combined for 82 points, the highest total in any NFL game this season (surpassing Bengals-Ravens in Week 5) and the highest in any of the 110 games the Bengals and Steelers have played against each other all time. But in the end, it was the Steelers on top, improving to 9-3 and ensuring that they’d spend another week in first place regardless of what the second-place Ravens did against the Eagles in the late afternoon game.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Well, define “big.” Wilson turned 36 years old last week, and his two years in Denver before this season in Pittsburgh were downright abysmal. He’s not getting the Dak Prescott four-year, $240 million deal. But could he get the Baker Mayfield three-year, $100 million deal? If he and the Steelers keep winning, that doesn’t sound impossible.

There’s a legitimate question to be asked about whether he’d get that contract from the Steelers, who also like the idea of developing Fields and might not be able to re-sign both if those QBs get interest from other teams. But given the number of teams that are going to be looking for quarterbacks, and given that it doesn’t shape up as a deep or particularly inspiring QB draft, it’s not hard to imagine some team deciding Wilson has turned a corner and could be the key to getting them to the playoffs.

I have no idea whether it will work without the coaching of Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith, who deserve massive credit for what they’re doing with this patchwork quarterback situation. But that doesn’t mean another team won’t try it.

Atlanta went into its Week 12 bye off a lackluster offensive performance and loss in Denver. It came out of it with a lackluster offensive performance and loss at home to the Chargers. A month ago, the Falcons were 6-3 and seemingly poised to take command of the NFC South, but they’ve since lost three in a row to drop to 6-6.

Cousins threw four interceptions Sunday. In his past three games, he has taken seven sacks, thrown six picks and failed to complete a single touchdown pass. The two head-to-head victories over Tampa Bay give the Falcons the slightest of cushions in the division race should they get their act together here in December. But right now, their offense looks broken. Cousins is playing poorly, and it’s hard to ignore the fact that the No. 8 pick of this year’s draft is sitting on the bench.

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Kirk Cousins’ fourth INT doom Falcons to third straight loss

Derwin James Jr. picks Kirk Cousins on a pass over the middle, the QB’s fourth interception of the game to seal a Falcons loss.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This was absolutely bound to happen if and when Cousins hit a rough patch, and the Falcons absolutely did this to themselves when they used that eighth overall pick on Penix a month after signing Cousins to a huge free agent contract. Fans who believed Cousins was the key to unlocking this highly skilled offense will surely be calling for Penix at this point. And who knows? It’s possible the thought has come up inside the Falcons’ building, as well.

But as always in cases like this, it’s important to ask whether and why we’re sure things would be better with Penix. He’s a fun prospect, for sure, and he enters the league with a wealth of college experience (45 starts). But asking a rookie who has never started an NFL game to come in with five games left and save the season is an awful lot. If Atlanta makes this move and Penix can’t get it done, it’s going to be pretty tough to go back to Cousins — this year or next.

The Falcons’ self-inflicted QB conundrum is a sticky one, I’m not denying that. But it still seems like the best bet for turning things around is the veteran who has been through this before. If it doesn’t work, the Falcons can make the change in the offseason and move on from Cousins after one year. But a move this seismic at this time of year has major backfire potential.

Up next for Cousins: The Falcons travel to Minnesota to face his old team next Sunday.

Saquon Barkley will break the single-season rushing record

Barkley ran up a cool 107 yards on 23 carries in the Eagles’ victory over the Ravens on Sunday, icing the game with a 25-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter as he has become accustomed to doing. He also caught two passes for 10 yards.

Those are somewhat pedestrian numbers compared to what he has been doing lately, but the rushing yards upped his season total to 1,499, which puts him on pace for 2,123 if he plays all 17 games. The NFL record is 2,105 set by Eric Dickerson in 1984. (Barkley is also on pace to challenge the all-time record for yards from scrimmage in a season; he’s on pace for 2,501, and the record of 2,509 was set by Chris Johnson in 2009.)

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

There is certainly the possibility that the Eagles, who lead the NFC East by 2.5 games and play four of their remaining five games at home, decide to rest Barkley in Week 17 ahead of the playoffs. That could deprive him of this opportunity. But they’re 10-2, the Lions are 11-1 and the Vikings are 10-2. The Eagles could be playing for the top seed in the NFC playoffs that week, in which case they could play Barkley against the Giants.

But check this out: The teams that ranked bottom-four in the league in run defense entering Sunday’s action — the Panthers, Cowboys, Giants and Commanders — are all still on the Eagles’ remaining schedule. Week 15 against the Steelers (fourth-best run defense) is the only game in which Barkley should not absolutely feast. If he piles up big numbers next week against Carolina and in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Commanders and Cowboys, respectively, Barkley may not even need the Week 18 game to break Dickerson’s record.

With the way the Eagles are blocking for Barkley and the likelihood that they’ll be leading in most (if not all) of their remaining games, it’s practically set up for him to do this.

Mike McCarthy can still save his job as the Cowboys’ coach

With its 27-20 win against the Giants on Thanksgiving, Dallas has beaten two division rivals in a span of five days to improve to 5-7 with five games remaining. Edge rusher Micah Parsons keeps saying the Cowboys can still make something happen, and I guess that’s technically true. And while they won’t be catching the Eagles for the division lead, they opened Sunday just two games behind the Commanders (whom they beat last Sunday) for the final wild-card spot in the NFC.

If the Cowboys run the table to finish 10-7 and sneak into the postseason, could that lead to an extension on McCarthy’s contract? Cowboys team owner Jerry Jones said in a radio interview last week that it’s “not crazy” to think McCarthy — whose contract expires at the end of this season — could get an extension and be back coaching Dallas in 2025.

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Stephen A.: Mike McCarthy’s lack of Cowboys postseason success alarming

Stephen A. Smith examines Mike McCarthy’s lack of postseason in Dallas success and wonders how an extension can even be considered for him.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Full credit to the Cowboys for continuing to play hard once it looked like their season was lost. Not every team does that, and it’s a point in the coach’s favor. But it’s pretty farfetched to believe Dallas can run the table.

Starting quarterback Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury was season-ending, which means it’s Cooper Rush the rest of the way. Do we really think this Rush-led offense is going to be able to outscore Joe Burrow and the Bengals next Monday night? Or win in Philadelphia in Week 17? Or beat Washington again to close out the season? The Cowboys entered Sunday with a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, so it’s an extreme long shot.

And even if the Cowboys pull off that miracle, McCarthy likely still will have to make a bit of a playoff run to keep his job. The Cowboys fired Jason Garrett in 2020 because he wasn’t able to get them over the hump of playoff success. McCarthy hasn’t done it, either. And unless something incredibly bizarre happens over the remainder of this season, the Cowboys will likely move on.

The Bears’ next coach was on the opposite sideline Thursday

Chicago became the third team this season to fire its head coach, letting Matt Eberflus go Friday after a heartbreaking Thanksgiving Day loss to the Lions in Detroit. It was the Bears’ sixth straight loss — after a 4-2 start — and it came after clock mismanagement cost them the Lions game.

The 11-1 Lions, meanwhile, are going to be in danger of losing both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to head-coaching jobs in the offseason. Such is the price of success, and Dan Campbell’s staff has stayed intact longer than many expected it would, given the team’s success. The Bears play the Lions twice a year and are therefore quite familiar with the work Johnson and Glenn have done to help Detroit ascend to the top of the NFC North.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Johnson, in particular, is likely to be a red-hot coaching candidate and could have options. The chance to develop and work with quarterback Caleb Williams is likely to be appealing to prospective head coaches, and if the money is right, the Bears could make a strong case. Glenn should be a candidate in several places, but I’d rate Johnson as the more likely answer for the Bears given that they just fired a defensive-minded head coach. Plus, it seems like this next hire must be Williams-focused. So, think Johnson or someone like Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who was at USC with Williams last season.

It would be a coup for the Bears to land the cycle’s most sought-after candidate in Johnson, in part because it could elevate and energize their offense and in part because they’d be weakening a division rival. I don’t know if they can get him, but I feel pretty confident in predicting that the Bears will try.