Less conflict on Gaza, Lebanon fronts as Palestinians continue to stream northward

At press time on Tuesday there were no new reports of major altercations either between Palestinians approaching IDF defense lines in Gaza or between Lebanese approaching IDF defense lines in southern Lebanon, despite bloody incidents on Sunday and Monday.

Simultaneously, Palestinians continued to stream northward with Hamas saying that well-over 300,000 had already returned to northern Gaza, and some Israeli estimates putting the numbers in the tens of thousands.

In Lebanon, health authorities issued no new reports of deaths or wounded, only a day after they accused IDF forces of having killed two people and wounded 17 in southern Lebanon when they tried to cross through IDF defense lines within Lebanese territory.

On Sunday, the numbers had been even worse, when Lebanese authorities accused the IDF of having killed around 22 people in southern Lebanon and wounded around 120.

It was unclear if the relative quiet on Tuesday was a sign that both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon had halted trying to cross through IDF defense lines.

IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon. (credit: IDF SPOKESMAN’S UNIT)

In the case of Hamas, there was clearly less incentive to confront the IDF, at least until Day 42 of the deal, given that the military had already opened the Netzarim Corridor to Palestinians to return to northern Gaza.

Day 42 of the deal is when an eight-day period starts in which Israel is supposed to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor, and an Israeli failure to do so could lead to Hamas sending more packs of civilians or quasi-civilians to march on IDF positions there.

Hezbollah in Lebanon

Regarding Hezbollah, the picture is less clear.

While the US and Lebanese governments agreed to extend the IDF’s time to complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon until February 18, Hezbollah rejected the extension, saying the IDF was bound to withdraw as of January 26.

This means that the drop in altercations on Tuesday could be a quiet recognition on the ground by Hezbollah that they are stuck with the February 18 deadline, even if publicly they have rejected it, or it could be a more temporary recalibration, leading to some other challenge to IDF forces in the coming days.

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Regarding those Gazans who returned to their homes in Gaza City in northern Gaza this week, they generally found a city in ruins after 15 months of fighting, with many seeking shelter amongst the rubble and searching for relatives lost in the chaotic return march.

Gaza City, in the north of the enclave, is a shell of the bustling, rough-edged urban center it was before the war, with swathes of buildings destroyed by Israeli bombardments and piles of rubble and torn up concrete on every side.

“Look at this scene, there is nothing to say,” said a man who gave his name as Abu Mohammad as he searched for a place to settle. “People will sleep on the ground. There is nothing left.”

Many of those returning, often laden with what personal possessions they still have after months of being moved around as the focus of the war shifted, had walked 20 km (12 miles) or more along the coastal highway north.

“I am waiting for my father, mother and brother. We lost them on the way,” said Jameel Abed, who walked up from the central area of the Gaza Strip. “We found some lights here and we are waiting for them,” he said.

“There is no car, no tuktuk, no donkey cart, no vehicle, nothing that could move on this road.”

Even as those who arrived in Gaza looked around for somewhere to settle down, tens of thousands were still moving north as mediators began preliminary work on the second stage of ceasefire negotiations between Israel, Hamas, the US, Qatar, and Egypt due to begin next week.

Three more Israeli hostages are due to be handed over on Thursday by Hamas, with another three expected on Saturday, in exchange for scores of Palestinian prisoners set for release from Israeli jails, some of whom will go into exile.

In Cairo, a high-profile Hamas team led by Mohammad Darwish, head of the group’s leading council, arrived for talks with Egyptian mediators, and to welcome 70 Palestinian prisoners who arrived in Cairo prior to being moved to third countries who would be willing to host them.

These include Qatar, Turkey, and Algiers, according to Hamas and other sources.

Reuters contributed to this report.