Latest CFP rankings are great news for IU football. Here's why.

Latest CFP rankings are great news for IU football. Here’s why.

Posted by Admin November 13, 2024 Football

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BLOOMINGTON – Tuesday’s might have been the most important pre-Selection Sunday College Football Playoff rankings from Indiana’s perspective. And the Hoosiers appear to have gotten good news in batches.

IU jumped three spots, from No. 8 to No. 5, in the committee’s latest top 25. Were the season to end today, that would position Indiana to host a first-round game in mid-December in Bloomington. Former IU offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama would, based on Tuesday’s reveal, be the projected visitor.

Why were these the most important rankings, other than the only ones that truly matter? And what do they mean for Curt Cignetti’s team? Well …

The most basic functional answer to the first question is the most important one: The committee said Tuesday night that wins matter.

Four of the top five teams in its latest top 25 were Big Ten teams (in order, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana). Texas was sandwiched directly in the middle of that foursome at No. 3, but in a season when the SEC is bound to put up a whole bunch of two-loss teams — and the committee doesn’t seem in a mood to give the ACC or Big 12 extra credit — wins appear to matter most.

That’s important because, if you assume that last point about the lesser two Power Four conferences, then this field is ultimately the end point of a collision course between the SEC and Big Ten.

It will probably be that way most of the time, in this modern era. But this year, that debate presents stark contrasts.

At present, there are nine SEC teams in the committee’s top 25, compared to just four Big Ten schools. Of those nine SEC teams, two have one loss, two have three and a whopping five have two.

Why does that matter? Because there is a school of thought — one that certainly has applied to the SEC in past years — that parity is a sign of strength. The conference is just so darn good that everybody beating up on each other is a natural byproduct of that strength. Phrased more cynically: Losses are better than wins.

The Big Ten, by comparison, has just four teams, but all four are currently in the committee’s top five.

Undefeated Oregon at No. 1 is hard to argue with. No. 2 Ohio State, with one loss at Oregon and a win at No. 4 Penn State, equally so.

But then, consider what that says. That the Big Ten’s wins mean enough to pull everyone up. And even though Indiana hasn’t beaten any of the other three (or played any of the other three), the committee is extending benefit of the doubt to the Hoosiers, who Michigan game aside have swatted away all comers decisively this season.

If we group based on ESPN’s latest FPI rankings, Penn State has one top 25 win and three in the top 50. Indiana has none of the former and just two of the latter.

By comparison, No. 12 (in the latest CFP ranking) Georgia has two top 25 wins, and five in the top 50. No. 11 Ole Miss has two and four, respectively, while No. 15 Texas A&M has two and four, respectively, as well.

What do all three SEC teams have in common? They each have two losses. Penn State has one. Indiana has none.

Wins matter. That’s what the committee said Tuesday night. It’s one of college football’s time-tested rules of thumb, dating back to the days when we demanded absolute perfection of a champion, and even here, at the advent of a 12-team Playoff, the selection committee seems intent upon holding to that standard.

So, to our second question: What does it mean for Indiana?

Probably that the Hoosiers will make the Playoff with one more win.

An extremely non-competitive loss at Ohio State in 11 days could change that. But it would be an awfully long fall to lose on the road even semi-competitively to a higher-ranked team, then come home and take care of business against Purdue (a requirement at this point) and still drop seven places.

Yes, Georgia fell nine spots from last week’s ranking, but the Bulldogs have two losses, a couple unconvincing wins and a trend line that frankly is not pointed in a great direction at this stage of the season. Miami dropped five spots, but the Hurricanes also lost to an unranked Georgia Tech team that’s just 6-4. Even if we include Ole Miss at No. 11, all three teams have worse losses than IU would suffer at Ohio State, and Georgia and Ole Miss still have more of them.

Most broadly, the committee did not seem in the mood to give the SEC credit for its losses, and that’s what Indiana needed to see Tuesday night. It grouped six two- and three-loss teams between Nos. 11-23, but only put one such team (Alabama) in the top 10. For good measure, the committee also kept Notre Dame as a buffer between the Hoosiers and the outside looking in.

Listen, the committee’s thinking can always change. There are four weeks’ worth of data points still to input into this process, if we’re counting conference championship games, and everything can shift quickly in a low-sample size sport. Ask a Texas A&M fan (and then duck).

But given what it had achieved, compared to the holes in its resume, Indiana should have been encouraged by Tuesday’s outcome. If this indeed proves to be the Hoosiers ceiling, the committee seems prepared to welcome an 11-win IU football team into its field.

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