The fantasy playoffs have exacerbated what’s been a really bad year for managers who want to wait to draft quarterbacks. Some big names now have major fleas — Jordan Love, Justin Herbert and Sam Darnold have all taken big hits to their expected 2025 fantasy value.

Now add some quarterbacks we thought were ascending into the first tier — or who at least would be indistinguishable from it — but who slumped in our game in 2024: Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy. Suddenly it’s really hard to establish a solid top 12 in 1QB leagues.

The top tier is set — Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow — but they will cost serious draft capital. Notice Patrick Mahomes is not in there. He’s currently sixth in Fantasy Pros’ consensus ranks of 10 experts. At this point, Mahomes is a big name who doesn’t win anything for his managers. At a Top 50 or even Top 75 overall price, he’s been a losing proposition. I would wait and take Jared Goff, who is ranked eighth (after Baker Mayfield). But the whole point of taking Goff (and Mayfield) is to pay little to nothing for a quarterback. Both are far less attractive now that they come at a substantive cost.

Some of the 2024 slumpers, who extended their slides into the 2025 playoffs, are going to be consensus top 12 picks — Love is No. 9, Herbert No. 10, Murray No. 11, Richardson No. 12, Williams No. 15, Tagovailoa No. 16, Stroud No. 17.

This is a massive fall for Stroud, who had an ADP value of QB5 last year. Normally, I’d feel great about picking a “last year’s bum” at a severely discounted price. But Stroud was so bad in 2024. Another good postseason game in the divisional round might assuage those concerns. (Remember, fantasy analysis rarely includes postseason games as part of its focus, but, in reality, those are the most important games for the players and teams.)

Why has Stroud fallen so much more than Love, who was drafted as the QB8 last year? Love falls only one spot off a season like that? Is this an indictment of us or the QB pool?

Some will argue the answer to this problem is simply drafting one of the Top 5 QBs early. Last draft season, that was (on average, according to NFFC) overall pick 58 — by the fifth round. If you are stacking Ja’Marr Chase, fine — take Burrow in the fifth round. I get it. But otherwise, you just can’t spend that type of draft capital on a quarterback. The differences in fantasy scoring come down mostly to touches and targets. But QB touches are basically uniform. So, historically, we always get Top 10 QBs from the bottom of the draft or even on waivers. This year, they were Mayfield (QB4), Goff (QB6), Bo Nix (QB7) and Darnold (QB9).

I understand the early QB drafters are saying, “But there is no guarantee if I wait I will pick the right cheap QB!” Yes, but if you draft a QB early, there is a guarantee you won’t. A key to winning in fantasy is to know where you can steal cheap points, and that’s most easily done at the QB position. I’m not saying it’s easy or guaranteed — winning is hard. But paying nothing for a QB and keeping up with the big spenders there is foundational to fantasy success.

Drafting a QB early guarantees nothing either. Mahomes was the consensus QB2 in 2024 and was a bust (QB12 in scoring). Stroud was QB5 and finished QB18, also terrible. So 40% of the QBs drafted in the first five rounds were busts.

We’re not going to really know the QB landscape until the offseason is complete, including coaching hires. If Mayfield loses OC Liam Coen, that’s bad. Is Purdy even healthy? Will Stroud get another top weapon to complement Nico Collins? Will Dak Prescott add weaponry and have a more pass-oriented attack, or will the Cowboys draft record-setting Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty, as many expect?

Jeanty is also an explosive receiving weapon. So, I will now put Prescott into my comfort zone as a late-round QB. He’s currently QB18, so basically free. Remember, according to Yahoo, 98 percent of teams in 1QB leagues draft two QBs, and the number of teams with two QBs goes up from there as the season progresses. I hear some of you saying, “No one in my league does that!” One, I don’t believe you. Two, it’s a big world.

Knowing where to draw that line of QB comfort is key. Personally, I can’t draft Richardson. Williams is too risky at the moment, but I can be persuaded in training camp. I’m out on Tua. I need Darnold to remain in Minnesota, but that seems very unlikely now, so he’s out. Drake Maye needs a lot of additions, especially at wide receiver. I assume Matthew Stafford is not retiring — I am comfortable with him. The rookies don’t excite me. J.J. McCarthy is QB31, but he or Darnold will be above the line for me, depending on what transpires in Minnesota. If both remain in Minnesota, I’m out.

I have 15-16 QBs I’d take a chance on, and I’d want two of them around Round 12 or later. But I can count on guys I’m ranking well below market being drafted before then — Love, Herbert, Murray, Richardson, Williams, Tagovailoa. I’m very happy to delete them from my cheat sheet when someone else picks them. Your QB mileage may vary, but this is the exercise you must complete — ID the QBs you can live with and then get two of the cheapest ones in your room.

In 2025, that will be harder than ever because we have more uncertainty than ever. But this year, like every other, three or four quarterbacks from the bottom of the draft will emerge as winning players. Will they be on your team or someone else’s?

(Top photo of Dak Prescott: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)