We’re headed into Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season, and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises that could happen and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking out one potential bet to consider. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Intriguing bet
Latest buzz
Can Marvin Harrison Jr. find some speed against the Rams?
Here’s a bizarre number: Harrison’s top speed in Week 1 was just 16.7 mph, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s on all plays, not just on plays as a ball carrier. I’ll be the first to tell you that top speeds are a product of circumstance more than anything else. Get the ball in space and make a dash to the end zone? You’ll be faster than DK Metcalf on a dig route. But 16.7 is low. Since the start of last season, there have been 1,730 games in which wide receivers have taken at least 25 offensive snaps. Harrison’s Week 1 top speed ranks No. 1,699 on that list. If we filter out plays with the ball, it’s a similar result.
I asked a senior analytics staffer from a different team how concerned they would be, on a scale of 1-10, if their team were the Cardinals. Four, they said, given that it’s just one game and that Harrison settled into zones on some of the verticals. But the staffer also acknowledged Harrison didn’t look explosive. (Yahoo Sports’ Nate Tice provided another reasonable explanation, suggesting the Bills ran a lot of cloud coverage against Arizona that would naturally slow down any receiver running routes into it.)
So Sunday against the Rams will be a key test. Was Week 1 an aberration or the start of a trend? If the latter, that’s not good for Arizona’s chances against Los Angeles.
Will Chase Young get the best of Tyler Guyton — or the other way around?
Here’s a matchup of two players who had very interesting Week 1 outings. Young showed signs of a breakout despite no sacks by improving his jump (he decreased his average pass-rush get-off time from 0.81 seconds last season to 0.66 so far this season). That translated to a 43% pass rush win rate at edge for the Saints edge rusher, fourth best in Week 1.
On the flip side, Guyton posted an 84% pass block win rate in Week 1, a little below average but decent considering his opponent was often Myles Garrett. The Cowboys’ rookie offensive lineman recorded a 90% PBWR (a shade above average for a tackle) when facing anyone other than Garrett. If I had to back one side here, I’m betting on Young. But this matchup could go either way and will tell us a lot about both of these players.
Can the Raiders’ motion-heavy attack give them a chance against the Ravens?
The Raiders used a man in motion on 48% of snaps in Week 1 under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, who had used the tactic just 22% of the time in Chicago last season. While the Raiders managed just 10 points against the Chargers in Week 1, the motion helped a lot. The Raiders’ plays with a man in motion at the snap last Sunday garnered 0.48 more EPA per play than without it (granted, it was still negative … but everything is relative). It will be a dose of the Ravens’ own medicine in Week 2, as Baltimore kicked off the motion-at-the-snap revolution several years ago.
Will facing a Tyson Campbell-less Jaguars secondary help get the Cleveland passing game going?
Despite playing a Miami team that boasts two of the best wideouts in the league, Campbell looked great in Week 1, allowing zero receptions on one target over 29 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Unfortunately, he also didn’t finish the game, as a left hamstring injury knocked him out of the contest and landed him on injured reserve. Ronald Darby, by contrast, allowed 174 yards, though in his defense he was facing Tyreek Hill and a 60-yard catch by Jaylen Waddle was attributed to him even though Waddle shouldn’t have been his responsibility. Still, there’s no question Jacksonville is hurting without Campbell.
That’s exactly what Cleveland needs to see because the Browns’ passing game was atrocious in Week 1, with Deshaun Watson recording a 9.3 QBR — lowest of any quarterback last week. That the Jaguars had a low pass rush win rate (29%) in Week 1 is another good sign for the Browns.
Can Jared Verse bolster his early Defensive Rookie of the Year case against the Cardinals?
No rookie edge rusher played better than Verse in Week 1 — not even close. His 33% pass rush win rate at edge was tied for sixth best at the position, and he added a sack. It’s one game, but I’d honestly make him a favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year already. Sunday will be a good test against another young first-round talent (2023) in Paris Johnson Jr., who posted a solid 92% PBWR in Week 1. Verse vs. Johnson should be a critical matchup in determining which team comes out ahead.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (28.5% rostered): One thing we learned about the Raiders in Week 1 is that their backfield is pretty fluid. Mattison led the backfield in snaps and turned nine touches into 16.2 fantasy points, thanks to a 31-yard receiving touchdown. He also saw six targets compared to Zamir White‘s two. These stats stand out because the Raiders are big underdogs to the Ravens this week, and that could benefit Mattison since he led the backfield in routes run against the Chargers.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams (26.5% rostered): With Puka Nacua on injured reserve, Matthew Stafford is going to need someone other than Cooper Kupp to step up. Kupp had a career-high 21 targets in Week 1, and while that’s impressive, the Rams have to spread the ball around to lighten his load and win games. L.A. is just 1-6 in regular-season games where Kupp has been targeted 15-plus times. Robinson could be that support for the Rams. Don’t forget, he finished last season strong, either scoring 10-plus fantasy points, finding the end zone or racking up over 80 receiving yards in Weeks 11-17.
Who stands to shine in fantasy for the Rams with Nacua out?
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down the Rams offense without Puka Nacua.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (14.4% rostered): The Commanders’ defense gave up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers in Week 1. Robinson, not Malik Nabers, led the Giants with 12 targets, though he didn’t finish with as many receiving yards (44) as Nabers (66), nor did he run as many routes. Still, Robinson should rack up plenty of receptions against Washington from the slot, where he ran almost all of his routes in Week 1. It’s also worth noting that Robinson was Daniel Jones‘ first read on a high percentage of those targets.
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (7.1% rostered): I know … Jones scored only 4.9 fantasy points last week against the Vikings. But here’s the thing: His hold on the starting job is slipping, and he needs to bounce back quickly. Week 2 presents a great chance to do just that. The Commanders’ defense gave up 29 fantasy points to Baker Mayfield, so Jones has a golden opportunity to shine. In his seven career games against Washington, Jones has averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game.
Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (5.2% rostered): The Patriots may have slowed down the Bengals’ offense in Week 1, but Iosivas was a bright spot for Cincinnati. He led the team in routes run and matched Ja’Marr Chase with six targets, playing an every-down role with Tee Higgins inactive. With a high-scoring game expected against the Chiefs and Higgins possibly out again, Iosivas could see even more targets playing opposite Chase.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has a bounce-back game against the Rams
Harrison had just one reception for 4 yards in his pro debut against the Bills last week, but we should see his target volume climb Sunday against a zone-heavy Rams defense. The Cardinals can scheme open voids for Harrison to work the intermediate levels of the field while also attacking vertically in the outside third of the coverage. I could see Harrison logging more than 80 receiving yards.
The Jets’ defense takes the ball away from Will Levis
Levis turned the ball over three times in Tennessee’s Week 1 loss to the Bears, making questionable decisions and extending plays to his detriment. Considering his aggressive throwing mentality, the Jets’ secondary will have chances to make plays on the ball on Sunday. This is a game where cornerback Sauce Gardner can cash in, potentially grabbing his first interception of the season.
Najee Harris finds the end zone against the Broncos
Harris totaled 20 rushing attempts in the Week 1 win over the Falcons, and I expect a very similar run-heavy script from coordinator Arthur Smith in this Sunday’s matchup with the Broncos. That’s the identity of this Steelers offense. However, I think this time Harris will add a touchdown to his 2024 résumé, most likely on a goal-line carry.
Baker Mayfield throws a ton against the Lions
Mayfield was efficient throwing the ball in the Week 1 win over the Commanders, completing 24 of 30 passes. But given the Lions’ run defense, I see Mayfield and the Bucs having to lean on the pass game. Look for Mayfield to attempt more than 40 passes Sunday, something he has done 14 times in his career.
Colby Parkinson plays a defined role in the Rams’ pass game
With Nacua out, Kupp will continue to see the majority of the target share versus the Cardinals on Sunday. But don’t forget about Parkinson in this one. Parkinson caught 4 of 5 targets for 47 yards against the Lions in Week 1. Plus, coach Sean McVay can set him up as an underneath outlet for Stafford, which would lead to more catch-and-run opportunities. I’m expecting Parkinson to catch at least five passes in this one.
Isiah Pacheco, longest rush OVER 14.5 yards (-125)
The Chiefs running back had 130 yards on 18 carries against Cincinnati last season, including runs of 37 and 35 yards. With as many resources as Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo must dedicate to solving the Patrick Mahomes problem, he must take away from the run defense, which suffered mightily last season in general — and especially against the Chiefs. That trend seems to be continuing this season, as the Bengals were dominated in the trenches against an average Patriots’ offensive line in Week 1 (Rhamondre Stevenson had 25 carries for 120 yards, including runs of 17, 16 and 14 yards).
The Bengals’ penchant for giving up explosive runs (they were fifth worst in the league in runs of 10-plus yards surrendered last season and have made no meaningful additions to the defensive front seven since then) is why I’m looking at Pacheco to rip off a big run (or two or three), especially as the Chiefs run the ball to protect rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia from spending too much time in pass protection against star Cincinnati edge rusher Trey Hendrickson.
Why Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy numbers will only continue to rise
Mike Clay says Isiah Pacheco’s will continue to have the highest snap share for the Chiefs, meaning consistent production for fantasy managers.
The 49ers could decide as early as Saturday whether to place star running back Christian McCaffrey (right calf/Achilles) on injured reserve. That’s where this seems to be trending, though no decision had been made as of Friday night.
A surprise, to be sure, but Thursday’s practice was considered a setback, and the 49ers are willing to sacrifice September or even October weeks to ensure his health during the stretch run. McCaffrey was a surprise pregame scratch in Week 1, with Jordan Mason replacing him and rushing 28 times for 147 yards in the win over the Jets.
The Dolphins are comfortable with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson starting should Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) miss time, as expected. While Miami most certainly will need to add a quarterback for depth, it hadn’t focused on that process as of late Friday while processing Tagovailoa’s third concussion in two years. Ryan Tannehill, who was drafted by the Dolphins in Round 1 in 2012, is the top option on the free agent market.
The Broncos are preparing almost exclusively for quarterback Justin Fields to start for the Steelers on Sunday. A Russell Wilson revenge game is not expected at this time, though Wilson (right calf) is officially listed as questionable and could perk up over the weekend. Fields completed 17 of 23 passes for 156 yards and ran for 57 yards in the Week 1 win over the Falcons.
Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison‘s right ankle issue is not considered a long-term problem. He will miss this week and possibly next but should be back on the field relatively soon.
Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze (questionable, right knee) wants to play Sunday, so it’s a matter of whether Chicago makes the decision to protect him. He’s considered a game-time decision.
Meanwhile, Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (questionable, ankle) is getting closer and should get clarity on his situation Saturday. He injured his left ankle in early August.
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