Don’t look now, but here come the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors.

After we spent all season feeling confident in a three-horse NBA title race between the Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers, the two iconic franchises out west have entered the conversation. When Los Angeles made the stunning trade for superstar Luka Dončić, most figured it was a bridge to a post-LeBron James future more than a push for the present. Some also saw Golden State acquiring Jimmy Butler as a desperate attempt to make Steph Curry’s twilight at least mildly relevant. But real pushes to claim the Western Conference? That seemed highly unlikely. Yet as we enter March, both teams are earning attention as potential title contenders.

The Thunder and Celtics remain favorites to win it all at BetMGM at +225 as of Tuesday afternoon, and after a brief blip in mid-January, Cleveland has ripped off 10 straight wins and sits comfortably in third at +600. However, the Lakers and Warriors are skyrocketing up the NBA title betting board. Los Angeles’ championship odds have jumped from +1400 before Dončić’s debut to +1000 currently. Next up on the betting board are the Denver Nuggets at +1200, but Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry and the Warriors are right on their heels at +1400.

It’s quite rare that two mid-season trades have this big of an impact on the title race. And it’s happened so fast it’s hard to tell if this is real or if the betting markets are moving too quickly. Let’s dive into each team to see if they can keep this up.

NBA title odds

Did the Butler Do It?

Upon the conclusion of Monday night’s games, Golden State moved to 8-1 with Butler in the lineup. We tend to look at NBA teams through their stars and believe the best players have an outsized impact. It’s certainly true that you need elite talent anchoring a team and combining Butler with a late-career Curry accomplishes that. The problem Golden State faced before their roster overhaul was simply that their rotation had too many anchors weighing it down in a bad way.

For example, in almost 1,300 minutes this season, the Warriors had a negative net rating (-1.8) when Andrew Wiggins was on the floor. In the 541 minutes Kyle Anderson played, Golden State’s net rating was -6.8. Dennis Schroder might as well be accused of being a double agent as the team’s performance in his 628 minutes was -9.8 per 100 possessions. It’s nearly impossible to field a title contending team when devoting that many minutes to players whose impact ranged from below average to catastrophic. The addition of Butler has helped but also worked in concert with the subtraction of players detrimental to winning games.

Data also shows the presence of Wiggins, Anderson and Schroder either blocked or impeded the impact of younger players making a positive contribution. Gui Santos played in just 26 games before Butler arrived despite posting a net rating of +7.3. Since the Butler acquisition, Santos has played 126 minutes in all 10 games and the Warriors are +9.1 in those minutes. Brandin Podziemski has also seen a rise in both minutes and effectiveness since the Warriors shook up their roster. Pre-Butler, Podziemski averaged a shade under 25 minutes per game with a net rating of +2.4. Since the arrival of the Warriors’ new star, Podziemski has played nearly 30 minutes a night with a net rating of +18.9.

While there are certainly some things to be wary of when it comes to investing in the Warriors title chances — Butler is playing well but is also in the midst of an unsustainably hot run of mid-range shot-making and the Warriors’ recent schedule has been quite soft — their improvement from both the top down and bottom up make this one intriguing long-shot bet.

The Lakers began the season 22-18.

They’ve gone 16-3 since and are now the No. 2 seed in the West — and their Finals odds keep improving 👀

(Odds courtesy of @BetMGM) pic.twitter.com/EHRXfIdLNO

— The Athletic NBA (@TheAthleticNBA) March 3, 2025

Dončić and the Defense. Wait, Defense???

Before Dončić’s arrival, Los Angeles was a middling defensive unit, ranking 18th in the league with a rating of 113.8. Since the star debuted Feb. 10, the Lakers have the NBA’s second-best defense. There are many things Doncic does for a team, but spurring a defensive revival wasn’t expected to be one of them.

The main cause for this defensive turnaround is something outside of the players’ control — 3-point variance. While player tracking data is helping us understand it better, 3-point “defense” is essentially random. The best indicator of a good defense is taking away those valuable shots from beyond the arc, not how well an opponent shoots them. This is where the warning lights should be flashing for anyone wanting to invest in the Lakers’ sudden turnaround.

Before the trade, opposing teams attempted 37.5 shots from behind the arc while converting 35.5 percent of them. The latter figure is  just a shade below league average. Since Dončić has arrived, Los Angeles has been giving up the fifth-most 3s per game at a whopping 41.4. Fortunately for the Lake Show, opponents have converted just 33 percent of those attempts, well below league average.

While Dončić has also shot poorly himself, the driving force behind the Lakers’ sudden revival has been a defense benefitting from their opponents’ wayward shooting. History tells us that the stats should regress back to the mean and likely drag the team’s title odds down with it. The Athletic’s John Hollinger made a good point noting the return of Jarred Vanderbilt and the addition of Dorian Finney-Smith has made the team more solid defensively, but that isn’t changing my point of view here. Personally, I’m not buying high on Dončić and the Lakers, despite their recent run.

Trouble in Texas

I know we have focused on the contenders in most of this post, but wanted to touch on the flip side. With news coming Tuesday about Kyrie Irving being out for the season with a torn ACL, it’s been a brutal month for the Dallas Mavericks and their fans. After the dust has settled, the Mavericks are in a free fall as an organization and on the betting board.

Dallas was listed at +2000 to win the title at BetMGM before the Luka trade. After the big move, their odds dropped to +6600. Now, after the Irving injury news, the team’s odds of winning it all have fallen all the way to +20000.

(Photo of LeBron James and Luka Doncic by Harry How / Getty Images)