The Los Angeles Lakers will need a little luck to break their way if they hope to get back to the Emirates NBA Cup championship game this year.

Last season, L.A. went on a charmed run to the title game of what was then known as the NBA In-Season Tournament, where it vanquished the Indiana Pacers, 123-109. All-NBA Second Team Los Angeles center Anthony Davis submitted a colossal two-way game, notching a 41-point, 20-rebound night, while also chipping in four blocks. All-NBA Third Team Lakers combo forward LeBron James became the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament MVP, however, thanks to his play throughout.

Los Angeles is slated to square off against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night, in the fourth and final group play game of the team’s 2024 slate. L.A. is currently 2-1 in West Group B, tied by record with the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs. The Suns and Spurs, however, lead the way in their group thanks to a massive edge in cumulative point differential. Phoenix boasts a +19 point differential, while San Antonio is +14, per Mike Trudell of Lakers.com. The Lakers, however, are -16 in point differential, thanks to an embarrassing blowout loss to Phoenix on Tuesday. The Thunder, meanwhile, are 1-1, having only played two NBA Cup bouts. The tanktastic Utah Jazz have already been eliminated, thanks to an 0-3 start to their group play run.

Los Angeles needs to defeat the Thunder on Friday, but it also likely needs the 10-9 Spurs to best the 10-8 Suns on Tuesday. Trudell cautions that the Lakers’ wildcard chances are slim, given their lackluster point differential. The two teams haven’t played each other yet this year, but San Antonio did go 3-1 against Phoenix head-to-head in 2023-24, during All-Defensive First Team center Victor Wembanyama’s rookie season. The Spurs were at the time without core vets Chris Paul or Harrison Barnes (who arrived this summer), or exciting young rookie Stephon Castle. Phoenix at the time hadn’t added now-starting point guard Tyus Jones, and at the time the Suns were coached by Frank Vogel, who has since been replaced by Mike Budenholzer. All this is to say — it’s anyone’s guess how that game will go.

All the Lakers can do for now is win Friday night’s game. And they’re not even favored to do that.

According to Joe Dellera of sportsbook aggregator The Action Network, the higher-seeded Thunder are slight 1.5-point favorites to beat L.A. on their home floor, Crypto.com Arena. At 14-4, Oklahoma City occupies the West’s No. 1 seed, but is just 3.0 games ahead of the No. 5-seeded Lakers (11-7).

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