Keys to a fantasy football victory in Week 11

Posted by Admin November 15, 2024 Football

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Dominate your fantasy football leagues with these keys to victory for Week 11.

Best spot of the week: J.K. Dobbins vs. CIN

Dobbins is coming off an interesting week. He played his usual 67% of the team’s snaps but only handled 45% of the rush attempts. Gus Edwards returned for this game and immediately saw 10 carries to Dobbins’ 15. We also saw Hassan Haskins get involved for a goal-line touchdown in his revenge game against his former team, the Titans.

This caused some panic for Dobbins’ fantasy managers, but I’m here to say, “R-E-L-A-X.”

Dobbins is fine.

This was Edwards’ most efficient day of the season. This likely led to him earning more volume than we saw him get in Weeks 3-4. But Dobbins still handled a team-high 18 opportunities and was used as the primary passing-down back. Expect Dobbins to continue to be the clear RB1 on the Chargers. This week he gets a nice matchup at home against the Bengals. Cincinnati allows the seventh most rushing efficiency this season according to NFL Pro. Start Dobbins with confidence in Week 11.

Sketchy spot of the week: Tony Pollard vs. MIN

Pollard produced just 63 scoreless yards in Week 10. This was his worst performance in nearly two months. This also happened to be the same week backup Tyjae Spears returned from a hamstring injury. Spears was efficient, turning his 10 touches into 51 yards while playing a season-high 47% snaps. But this needs more context because Pollard left this game for some time with an ankle issue. It’s likely Pollard would’ve commanded more snaps and touches had he not left the game.

Pollard should be fine moving forward, but this week he has a tough matchup. Pollard and the Titans are six-point underdogs against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game this season. There’s a chance Spears earns more passing-down snaps if the Titans fall behind in this one. You can still start Pollard this week but temper your expectations in this sketchy spot.

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Jennings is coming off a strong performance in Week 10. He returned from a hip injury and immediately led the 49ers with 11 targets. He turned this elite target volume into seven catches for 93 yards. This was the first time this season that Jennings lined up primarily as the team’s X outside receiver. He was playing the Brandon Aiyuk role in the offense, and it led to fantastic usage and production. Jennings has now produced at least 88 receiving yards in three of his last four completed games.

This week Jennings finds himself in another quality spot. He’ll face a Seahawks secondary that ranks bottom-10 in coverage according to PFF. Seattle allowed 36 points to the 49ers in their Week 6 matchup. In this game, Brock Purdy completed 64% of his passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns. Expect another game of strong usage for Jennings. He’s a must-start this week and moving forward.

It’s been a rough few weeks for the Jaguars’ first-round rookie. Thomas has been battling a chest injury the past two weeks and his rest-of-season outlook only got worse in Week 10 with Mac Jones as his starting QB. Thomas saw a season-low three targets and only caught two balls for 12 yards. Trevor Lawrence has already been ruled out for Week 11 and his rest-of-season availability is now in question.

Thomas is an exciting outside receiver who wins with speed and explosiveness downfield. This is a great profile to pair with Lawrence and we’ve seen that combination work wonders this season. But Jones may be the worst-case scenario for Thomas at QB. Jones isn’t known for his arm or ability to hit downfield throws consistently. Thomas is quickly trending down the weekly fantasy rankings and it’s hard to start him this week against the Lions who rank third in both pass rush and coverage this season according to PFF. Sit Thomas in Week 11.

Bounce-back of the week: Ladd McConkey

McConkey is set up for a bounce-back performance in Week 10. The Chargers rookie earned a season-low two targets against the Titans. He turned this usage into two catches for 52 yards. It was his worst fantasy finish since Week 2 when he caught two balls for 26 yards. But this was a tough matchup for the Chargers passing game and McConkey. Entering Week 10, the Titans were allowing the fewest receiving yards per play according to NFL Pro. This was only the second time this season McConkey didn’t see at least a 20% target share and his first time below 19% all year. Consider this poor Week 10 showing an outlier.

Heading into Week 11, McConkey finds himself in a much better matchup. The Chargers will face a Bengals secondary that just allowed three different Ravens pass-catchers to earn at least 17 fantasy points in Week 10. Lamar Jackson torched the Bengals for 290 passing yards and four touchdowns last week. Cincinnati ranks 27th in coverage this season and the Chargers rank top-three in passing efficiency over the past month of the season. Expect another strong passing day for Justin Herbert and this offense. That benefits McConkey; he’s a start this week.

Pick up and play: Adonai Mitchell

Mitchell had his best game of the season in Week 10. He started in place of an injured Michael Pittman Jr. and Mitchell was able to catch all six of his targets for 71 yards. He generated multiple explosive plays of 10+ yards in this contest while leading the Colts in snaps and routes run. There’s a decent chance Mitchell starts again this week as Pittman battles a back injury. This injury almost landed Pittman on IR a few weeks ago and he’s reportedly struggling to even bend his back right now.

If Pittman misses Week 11, Mitchell once again becomes a viable FLEX option even with QB Anthony Richardson back under center. Mitchell will face a Jets defense that has struggled since firing coach Robert Saleh. New York allowed Kyler Murray to complete 92% of his passes last week. Pick up and play Mitchell if Pittman is out this week.

Must-start of the week: Cedric Tillman

Tillman is heading out of his bye week red-hot. He’s been one of the best wide receivers in football the past month of the season. In fact, over the past four weeks, Tillman ranks second in fantasy points per game behind only Ja’Marr Chase. During this time, Tillman has averaged 85 yards on 10 targets per game. His rest-of-season schedule is mostly tough, but his Week 11 matchup isn’t.

Tillman will face the Saints this week. New Orleans no longer has star cornerback Marshon Lattimore on its roster after trading him to the Commanders. In Week 10, the Saints played their first game without Lattimore and allowed 306 passing yards to Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. Both Darnell Mooney and Drake London topped 90 receiving yards in this game and both were able to produce plenty of yards after the catch against the Saints’ 32nd-ranked (according to PFF) tackling unit. Make sure Tillman is in your lineups this week; he’s a must-start.

Something to monitor: Broncos Backfield

In Week 10, we saw an interesting development in the Broncos backfield. Rookie Audric Estimé led the Denver RBs with a season-high 45% of the snaps. Estimé also handled 14 of the 17 RB carries (82%) in this game, by far his best usage on the season. Veteran Javonte Williams saw just one carry and played a season-low 29% of the offensive snaps.

This usage made Estimé a priority add off waiver wires this past week. This makes sense, but I’m not ready to confidently say Estimé is a fantasy starter moving forward. The Broncos backfield is still using three different RBs.

Jaleel McLaughlin actually started in Week 10 and played 11% of the snaps. Even though Estimé saw the bulk of the carries in Week 10 he wasn’t able to do much with them, averaging just 3.7 yards on his 14 touches. To make matters worse, the fifth-round rookie is not known for pass-catching abilities. He’ll likely need a touchdown to be fantasy-relevant most weeks and that’s a bit challenging in a backfield that’s using three RBs and has a mobile QB in Bo Nix.

Continue to monitor this backfield’s usage in Week 11 against the Falcons. Estimé isn’t a start this week, but if his strong role continues, he could become a FLEX option moving forward; he does have a nice Week 12 matchup against the Raiders.