Kentucky Derby prep guide: Risen Star odds, PPs and more
The stakes get higher Saturday for Kentucky Derby contenders on the Fair Grounds road to the Derby, as they test their stamina at 1 1/8 miles in the Grade 2 Risen Star.
This is a virtual win-and-you’re-in for the first-place finisher, who will earn 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. East Avenue, winner of last year’s Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, is making his 3-year-old debut after a disastrous trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. Another exciting, returning 2-year-old, Jonathan’s Way, was expected to scratch. Built, winner of the Gun Runner stakes and runner-up in last month’s Lecomte, looks to continue his advance to the first Saturday in May. Post time for the Risen Star is 7:30 p.m. EST, with TV coverage on FanDuel TV.
Check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page for downloadable PPs for the Risen Star and five other Fair Grounds stakes, courtesy of Brisnet.
Best speed figures
| Post | Horse | Morn. Line | Beyer* | Brisnet | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Promise | 12-1 | 95 | 92 | 113 | 110 |
| 2 | Jonathan’s Way | scr | ||||
| 3 | Vassimo | 8-1 | 81 | 88 | 99 | 108 |
| 4 | East Avenue | 9-5 | 95 | 95 | 115 | 118 |
| 5 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | 79 | 85 | 104 | 103 |
| 6 | Seattle Road | 30-1 | 79 | 84 | 96 | 104 |
| 7 | Septarian | 12-1 | 82 | 93 | 103 | 124 |
| 8 | Giocoso | 20-1 | 78 | 88 | 106 | 109 |
| 9 | Built | 5-1 | 92 | 94 | 106 | 123 |
| 10 | Render Judgment | 12-1 | 78 | 87 | 99 | 110 |
| 11 | Jolly Samurai | 30-1 | 84 | 83 | 96 | 109 |
| 12 | Vamos Carlitos | 30-1 | 73 | 81 | 98 | 103 |
| 13 | Magnitude | 12-1 | 80 | 86 | 102 | 114 |
| *Daily Racing Form |
Pace makes the race
TimeformUS is predicting a swift pace with American Promise, East Avenue and Septarian vying for the early lead. Blinkers go on Septarian, which could affect how much he insists on being up front.
HRN picks
Ed DeRosa believes now is the time to play against morning-line favorite East Avenue in his fair-odds analysis. Despite a stellar record and scintillating works, East Avenue’s time off has allowed the rest of the field to catch up to him.
“The biggest negative at a short price against 12 others is that East Avenue has not run the fastest race of these, and as a whole the field’s best performances are all within 10 lengths of each other,” DeRosa wrote. “Throw in the added distance of 1 1/8 miles that none of them have gone before, and it is hard for me to take East Avenue at a short price here.”
So, who is the alternative? See what he thinks here.
Be sure to check out Ed’s discussion of the Fair Grounds card with Kevin Kilroy in this new video, as well as the latest Derby trail dish with The Paddock Prince, David Levitch.
Ashley Tamulonis and Laurie Ross go Head to Head handicapping the Risen Star, and they can agree on one thing, the morning-line favorite is vulnerable.
Get the scoop from the horse’s mouth, or at least the closest thing to it, with East Avenue’s trainer, Brendan Walsh in this episode of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Ron also previews the Fair Grounds card with announcer John Dooley and gets expert analysis of the Fair Grounds Stakes (G3), presented by Horse Racing Nation, from Super Screener’s Mike Shutty.
Check out our $97 deal and get the Super Screener each week for Derby prep analysis, plus reserve your copy of the Kentucky Derby Super Screener 3 months early.
| Post | Silks | Horse / Sire | Rating | Trainer / Jockey | Last Start / Next Start | Morn. line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
American Promise Justify |
5.59 | 12-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 2 |
|
Jonathan’s Way Vekoma |
6.74 | scr | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 3 |
|
Vassimo Nyquist |
5.87 | 8-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 4 |
|
East Avenue Medaglia d’Oro |
7.34 | 9-5 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 5 |
|
Chunk of Gold Preservationist |
0.00 | 30-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 6 |
|
Seattle Road Quality Road |
5.84 | 30-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 7 |
|
Septarian Protonico |
5.45 | 12-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 8 |
|
Giocoso Not This Time |
6.19 | 20-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 9 |
|
Built Hard Spun |
6.57 | 5-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 10 |
|
Render Judgment Blame |
6.17 | 12-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 11 |
|
Jolly Samurai First Samurai |
5.95 | 30-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 12 |
|
Vamos Carlitos Catholic Boy |
0.00 | 30-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 13 |
|
Magnitude Not This Time |
6.20 | 12-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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