Kentucky Derby prep guide: Lecomte odds, PPs, more
Photo:
Hodges Photography
Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds drew a flush field of 14 in pursuit of precious points for Kentucky Derby 2025. Admiral Dennis is expected to scratch out of the 1 1/16th-mile event, but the Lecomte still promises to be a solid wagering race.
FanDuel TV will have live coverage of the Lecomte, which is scheduled to go postward at 6:30 p.m. EST.
Visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page for downloadable PPs for the Lecomte and more, courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Lecomte as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
Best speed figures
| Horse | Morn. Line | Beyer* | Brisnet | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Innovator | 10-1 | 87 | 89 | 107 | 99 |
| 2. Maximum Promise | 10-1 | 75 | 87 | 105 | 93 |
| 3. Admiral Dennis | 8-1 | SC | SC | SC | SC |
| 4. Magnitude | 6-1 | 80 | 86 | 102 | 93 |
| 5. Optical | 20-1 | 75 | 84 | 100 | 84 |
| 6. Golden Afternoon | 20-1 | 75 | 85 | 107 | 92 |
| 7. Calling Card | 12-1 | 87 | 93 | 110 | 94 |
| 8. Tough Catch | 10-1 | 82 | 92 | 105 | 95 |
| 9. Dapper Moon | 12-1 | 87 | 93 | 103 | 96 |
| 10. Mobetterthangood | 20-1 | 63 | 82 | 80 | 80 |
| 11. Disco Time | 9-2 | 81 | 92 | 104 | 91 |
| 12. Jolly Samurai | 20-1 | 84 | 83 | 96 | 92 |
| 13. Built | 3-1 | 92 | 94 | 106 | 102 |
| 14. Seattle Road | 20-1 | 79 | 83 | 92 | 88 |
| *Daily Racing Form |
Looking at the pace
Maximum Promise is expected to make the lead through fast fractions in the Lecomte, with Innovator and Disco Time giving chase.
Pace projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks
This week’s Super Screener patiently awaits Sunday’s Pippin Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where Mike Shutty is targeting a pair of 15-1 shots in Indy Label and Neom Beach.
“Indy Label broke her maiden against claimers but did it in a big way and came right back to beat winners, winning in a balanced way showing a beautiful distribution of energy,” Shutty says. “She wasn’t great off her long layoff, but form-cycle analysis pattern indicates she is going in the right direction.”
Shutty had this to say about Neom Beach: “Form-cycle analysis is projecting a new lifetime top for Neom Beach. She is effective on both turf and dirt and won on turf last out but looks good to improve here on dirt.”
Check out our $97 deal and get Super Screener each week plus Power Picks and Horses to Single reports every day up until Kentucky Derby 2025.
Ed DeRosa’s Lecomte fair odds have a tough time dismissing Innovator and Built despite their poor draws. Optical, however, could be the value of the race.
For more Lecomte analysis, check out Matt Shifman’s Lecomte picks.
DeRosa also has Silverbulletday fair odds, and he thinks Simply Joking is simply too good for these. He’ll be fading California Sunset, potentially opening the door to some decent exotic payouts.
Ashley Tamulonis and Laurie Ross went head to head handicapping the Lecomte, and the big field naturally led to a lack of consensus. Tamulonis took favored Built on top, but Ross went elsewhere for her win selection.
J. Keeler Johnson’s latest Horses to Watch column tells you why Disco Time and Calling Card could be live long shots in the Lecomte.
FanDuel TV’s Andie Biancone joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to handicap the Lecomte Stakes. Trainer Wayne Catalano also stopped by to discuss the chances of Lecomte favorite Built.
| Post | Silks | Horse / Sire | Rating | Trainer / Jockey | Last Start / Next Start | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Innovator Authentic |
5.91 |
1st, OP MSW (12/29/2024-R3) |
10-1 | |
|
Last Race Next Race |
1st, OP MSW (12/29/2024-R3) |
|||||
| 2 |
|
Maximum Promise Maximum Security |
5.87 | 10-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 3 |
|
Admiral Dennis Constitution |
6.05 | 8-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 4 |
|
Magnitude Not This Time |
6.21 | 6-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 5 |
|
Optical City of Light |
6.05 |
1st, CD STR (11/24/2024-R1) |
20-1 | |
|
Last Race Next Race |
1st, CD STR (11/24/2024-R1) |
|||||
| 6 |
|
Golden Afternoon Goldencents |
5.45 |
1st, FG AOC (11/28/2024-R6) |
20-1 | |
|
Last Race Next Race |
1st, FG AOC (11/28/2024-R6) |
|||||
| 7 |
|
Calling Card Complexity |
6.06 | 12-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 8 |
|
Tough Catch Complexity |
6.19 | 10-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 9 |
|
Dapper Moon Malibu Moon |
6.19 |
1st, FG ALW (12/19/2024-R5) |
12-1 | |
|
Last Race Next Race |
1st, FG ALW (12/19/2024-R5) |
|||||
| 10 |
|
Mobetterthangood Mo Town |
0.00 | 20-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 11 |
|
Disco Time Not This Time |
6.17 | 9-2 | ||
|
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| 12 |
|
Jolly Samurai First Samurai |
5.95 | 20-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 13 |
|
Built Hard Spun |
6.34 | 3-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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| 14 |
|
Seattle Road Quality Road |
5.84 | 20-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
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