Kentucky Derby 2025 prep guide: Holy Bull odds, analysis, PPs
Photo:
Scott Serio / Eclipse Sportswire
Three Kentucky Derby 2025 preps are being offered Saturday, headlined by the Grade 3, $265,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
The 1 1/16-mile dirt heat drew a field of seven, featuring Hopeful (G1) and Breeders’ Futurity (G1) runner-up Ferocious, who is the 9-5 morning-line favorite.
Post time for the Holy Bull, the 11th of 12 races on the program, is 5:13 p.m. EST. CNBC and FanDuel TV will show the race live after the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita at 4:28 p.m. EST.
The $250,000 Withers Stakes, which kicks off the trifecta of Saturday Derby preps, goes live from Aqueduct on FS2 and FanDuel TV at 3:46 p.m. EST.
Check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page for downloadable PPs for all three Derby preps, including the Holy Bull, and more courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Holy Bull as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
Best speed figures
| Horse | Morn. line | Beyer* | Brisnet | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Kinetic Control | 15-1 | 77 | 89 | 100 | 94 |
| 2. Ferocious | 9-5 | 96 | 99 | 108 | 99 |
| 3. Tappan Street | 3-1 | 84 | 89 | 110 | 101 |
| 4. Guns Loaded | 5-2 | 88 | 98 | 111 | 100 |
| 5. He’s Not Joking | 15-1 | 84 | 96 | 103 | 91 |
| 6. Burning Glory | 8-1 | 75 | 88 | 110 | 92 |
| 7. Burnham Square | 5-1 | 86 | 94 | 108 | 94 |
| *Daily Racing Form |
Looking at the pace
Guns Loaded and Tappan Street are expected to battle for the early lead in the Holy Bull through moderate fractions. Ferocious is projected to be their closest pursuer.
Pace projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks
This week’s Super Screener tells you why Zio Jo could upset Seal Team in Saturday’s Thunder Road (G3) at Santa Anita.
“This race really sets up well for a horse with a superior late energy-distribution profile,” Mike Shutty said, “so it is no surprise that the Screener came up with Zio Jo as the top win contender.”
Check out our $97 deal and get Super Screener each week plus Power Picks and Horses to Single reports every day up until Kentucky Derby 2025.
Ed DeRosa’s Holy Bull fair odds believe Tappan Street should be favored over Ferocious, so he will wager accordingly.
DeRosa also has Withers fair odds, where he projects Omaha Omaha to go off at an overlay price.
DeRosa’s fair odds Saturday trifecta wraps up with Robert B. Lewis fair odds, where he gives trainer Bob Baffert a 98% chance of winning as he has three of the five entrants.
Ashley Tamulonis and Laurie Ross went head to head handicapping the Holy Bull, and they could not come to an agreement on the chances of Ferocious as the chalk.
Tamulonis and Ross also went head to head handicapping the Withers, and this time they came to a consensus on the horse to beat.
And in their debate about the Robert B. Lewis, they disagreed about which of the Baffert trio will win.
J. Keeler Johnson’s latest Horses to Watch column features several runners returning at Gulfstream Park on the Holy Bull undercard.
Ferocious’s co-owner Ramiro Restrepo, who won the 2023 Derby with Mage, discusses this year’s trail on the current edition of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod.
| Post | Silks | Horse / Sire | Rating | Trainer / Jockey | Last start / Next start | Morn. line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kinetic Control Not This Time |
6.11 | 15-1 | ||
|
Last race Next race |
||||||
| 2 |
|
Ferocious Flatter |
6.36 | 9-5 | ||
|
Last race Next race |
||||||
| 3 |
|
Tappan Street Into Mischief |
5.79 | 3-1 | ||
|
Last race Next race |
||||||
| 4 |
|
Guns Loaded Gun Runner |
6.31 | 5-2 | ||
|
Last race Next race |
||||||
| 5 |
|
He’s Not Joking Practical Joke |
6.27 | 15-1 | ||
|
Last race Next race |
||||||
| 6 |
|
Burning Glory Into Mischief |
5.59 | Bill Mott |
1st, CD MSW (12/1/2024-R8) |
8-1 |
|
Last race Next race |
1st, CD MSW (12/1/2024-R8) |
|||||
| 7 |
|
Burnham Square Liam’s Map |
5.79 | 5-1 | ||
|
Last race Next race |
||||||
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