Jannik Sinner will end 2024 as the No.1-ranked men’s tennis player after Carlos Alcaraz’s defeat by Tomas Machac in the Shanghai Masters quarterfinals made it impossible for him to overtake Sinner in the year’s remaining tournaments.

Sinner, who beat Daniil Medvedev 6-1, 6-4 earlier in the day at the same event to move into the semifinals, now leads Alcaraz by 3020 points in the so-called ‘ATP Race to Turin’, where the end-of-year Tour Finals for the top eight players in the world will be held between November 10 and November 17.

Sinner has 9730 points from this year’s tournaments, while Alcaraz has 6210. With two tournaments left in his schedule — the Paris Masters and the Tour Finals — Alcaraz can at best amass 9210 points by the end of the year.

World No. 33 Machac beat Alcaraz 7-6(5), 7-5, after playing at close to his peak level for nearly all of the encounter. Machac, who last week reached the semifinals at the ATP 500-level Japan Open in Tokyo, will now face Sinner for a place in the final in Shanghai, which is a 1000-level tournament.

Machac’s victory ended a 12-match winning streak for Alcaraz, who last week beat Sinner in a thrilling third-set tiebreak to win the ATP 500 China Open in Beijing. Alcaraz, who amassed eight break points against Machac (five of which were in a single game) but only converted one, will likely not be too dispirited at losing to an opponent playing at such a high level. His serve was broken just twice all tournament, both of those breaks coming against the Czech.

The confirmation of Sinner, 23, as year-end world number one adds another layer to his compelling rivalry with Alcaraz, in which the Spaniard, 21, leads 6-4 in their 10 meetings. Both players won two Grand Slams in 2024, with Sinner winning six ATP titles to Alcaraz’s four. The future of that rivalry, and of Sinner’s position at the top of the rankings, remains uncertain — the pending World Anti-Doping Authority (WADA) appeal into Sinner’s doping case could see him banned from tennis for up to two years.

(Top photo: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)