IU football vs. Michigan State key players, prediction: Is this the week for 9WINDIANA?

Posted by Admin November 1, 2024 Football

BLOOMINGTON — IU football can bring home the Old Brass Spittoon and make some history with a win this weekend at Michigan State.

The No. 13 Hoosiers (8-0; 5-0 Big Ten) have a chance to surpass the 1967 Rose Bowl team that also started 8-0 for the program’s best ever start. They are only one of eight remaining unbeaten teams in the country and one of two teams that has yet to trail (Army).

Jump into our weekly preview, The Runout, for what stood out during the week, players to watch, a prediction and more:

IU football vs Michigan State TV channel, kickoff time, odds

When: Saturday, Nov. 1 at 3:30 p.m.
Where: Spartan Stadium (74,866), East Lansing, Michigan
TV: Peacock
Line: Indiana -7.5
Series: Michigan State leads 50-18-2
Last meeting: Michigan State def. Indiana, 24-21, on Nov. 18, 2003

IU football players to watch vs Michigan State

∎ Justice Ellison, RB: Can he make it three in a row?

Ellison has crossed the 100-yard mark in each of IU’s past two games and was the hero for the team against Washington last week. He had the biggest workload of his career in the 31-17 win (29 carries) and carried the ball 20 times in the second half.

The Wake Forest transfer also extended his career-best scoring streak with a rushing touchdown in the third quarter. He’s now scored a touchdown in seven straight games, the longest such streak for the Hoosiers since Tevin Coleman scored in 15 consecutive games from 2013 to 2014.

One impressive aspect of Ellison’s success is that he’s averaging 4.2 yards per carry after contact this season, according to Pro Football Focus. He ranks No. 13 among FBS running backs with at least 90 rushing attempts and he’s also forced 35 missed tackles.

∎ Jailin Walker, LB: Walker could play a key role on Saturday if Michigan State opts to rely a bit more on Aidan Chiles’ athleticism.

Chiles was one of the top-ranked dual-threat quarterbacks in the country coming out of Downey High School in the 2023 signing class after rushing for 940 yards (14.0 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns as a senior, but that aspect of his game hasn’t been a focal point of MSU’s offense this season.

The Spartans could try to shake things up against an IU defense that hasn’t been tested against a mobile quarterback this year.

Walker, who has 48 tackles, three tackles for loss and four pass breakups, would be capable of disrupting those plans as one of the team’s most athletic players. He covers so much ground that he regularly covers tight ends and slot receivers split out wide.

∎ Elijah Sarratt, WR: Michigan State’s secondary has struggled against many of the conference’s top receivers — Maryland’s Tai Felton had 11 catches for 152 yards against the Spartans, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith had fives catches for 84 yards and Oregon’s Tez Johnson had 10 catches for 84 yards.

They all caught touchdowns too.

Sarratt, who was held without a catch after the first quarter against Washington, was putting up numbers in bunches before Kurtis Rourke’s injury and will have a size advantage over MSU’s starting corners Charles Brantley and Ed Woods.

This could be a game like the one against Maryland where Sarratt gets double-digit targets.

IU football: Week 10 Odds and Ends

∎ Turnover problem: Chiles has been one of the most mistake-prone starters in the country. The Spartans have a -7 turnover margin — tied for worst in the Big Ten and ranked No. 118 in the FBS out of 134 teams — with 16 turnovers. Chiles has accounted for the majority of those with nine interceptions and four lost fumbles. The Hoosiers defense has forced seven turnovers (five interceptions) over their past two games.

∎ Hard-nosed football: The Spartans have focused on running the ball coming out of its bye week. They averaged 31.7 carries through their first six games, but have averaged 40.5 carries over the past two weeks. Cignetti praised MSU’s outside zone scheme multiple times on Monday. “They’re going to smack you in the mouth,” he said. Michigan State relies on a rotation at running back with Kay’ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter, who had a standout performance with 119 yards (6.2 per carry) against Michigan. Indiana’s defense has held every one of its opponents to less than 150 rushing yards this season.

∎ Denied: Michigan State starting linebacker Jordan Turner will miss the first half of Saturday’s game after the Big Ten denied the school’s appeal of a targeting penalty that he was called for against Michigan. Turner, who is one of the team’s co-captains, has been MSU’s top defensive playmaker this season — he has a team-high 48 tackles (26 solo), 7.5 for a loss, three sacks and one interception. He was one of the key transfers coach Jonathan Smith landed out of the portal after playing 30 games (18 starts) in four seasons at Wisconsin.

IU football stat of the week

∎ 36: Indiana defensive end Mikail Kamara had a team-high five quarterback pressures against Washington including a sack on the opening drive. He’s led the defense in quarterback pressures in seven of the team’s eight games (the UCLA game was the lone exception) this season. Kamara has the third-most quarterback pressures in the FBS (36) and is tied for the most quarterback hits (11), according to Pro Football Focus.

The only players with more pressures in a single-season for Indiana since PFF started tracking the stat in 2014 are Nick Mangieri (41), Zack Shaw (40) and Darius Latham (38). Kamara could surpass them all this weekend and still have three games left to play.

IU football quote of the week

“He gives us a kick in the ass when we need it.” — Indiana right tackle Trey Wedig on offensive line coach Bob Bostad

Prediction: Indiana 42, Michigan State 19

Spartan Stadium hasn’t been kind to IU over the years, but that won’t matter much to Curt Cignetti as he gets this team focused for Saturday.

While this might be the most lively atmosphere the Hoosiers have faced this season, this ain’t their first rodeo. They have two conference wins on the road including one that was three time zones away. Some crowd noise shouldn’t throw them off their game.

It’s hard to imagine a Michigan State team that’s struggled to score 20 points most weeks will keep pace with Kurtis Rourke expected back in the lineup.

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.