IU basketball 2024-25 season prediction, schedule analysis: Big Ten challenge, NCAA return

Posted by Admin October 29, 2024 Basketball

BLOOMINGTON – Indiana basketball’s turn through Big Ten media days in suburban Chicago earlier this month left the distinct impression the conference expects the Hoosiers to have a say in its title race.

Even against an unbalanced schedule, and having to navigate a difficult road stretch midway through, Mike Woodson’s team ought to be among the league’s most talented this winter. They’ll need to make the most of a modest nonconference first, though, to set themselves up adequately for Selection Sunday.

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Let’s break the schedule down by month, highlighting potential swing games and pivot points on which a Big Ten championship push could rest:

November

Nov. 1: Marian (exhibition)

Marian will be a homecoming of sorts, as Pat Knight brings his team to Bloomington for the first time in his tenure.

Nov. 6: SIU-Edwardsville

Nov. 10: Eastern Illinois

Nov. 16: South Carolina

Nov. 21: UNC Greensboro

This has to be a 4-0 run, and probably one with some style points added. Part of what undercut IU’s efficiency numbers last season was the tonnage of too-close wins against poorer teams early in the schedule. South Carolina made the NCAA tournament last season, but roster churn has dampened expectations this winter. The Gamecocks rank 13^th out of 16 teams in Bart Torvik’s preseason SEC projections.

Nov. 27: Louisville (at Battle 4 Atlantis)

Nov. 28,:TBA (at Battle 4 Atlantis)

Nov. 29: TBA (at Battle 4 Atlantis)

In one sense, IU got the best possible opportunity here. The catch therein is the Hoosiers have to seize it, or else risk getting virtually nothing of value from their nonconference schedule.

First, they must beat a much-improved Louisville team. Then they’ll want to get Gonzaga, not West Virginia, in their second game, and finally they will almost certainly want Arizona of the four teams in the opposite side of the bracket.

As things stand, there are only three teams in this field in Torvik’s preseason top 50, and Indiana cannot beat itself. There might be some general quality to pick up here, some Quad 2 or perhaps even scraping Quad 1 wins elsewhere in the field. But the only way to guarantee quality wins out of the Bahamas trip is to beat at least one of Gonzaga or Arizona, and more likely both.

That is an awfully narrow needle to thread.

December

Dec. 3: Sam Houston State

Dec. 6: Miami (Ohio)

Dec. 9: Minnesota

Dec. 13: at Nebraska

Dec. 21: UT-Chattanooga

Dec. 29: Winthrop

Six games in 31 days is about as generous as one can be with a holiday schedule. The Hoosiers will play their first true road game in this stretch, at Nebraska. Everything else is, on paper, a must-win in the mold of so many of those November home games.

The layoffs around Christmas leave the hole carved out for Indiana to resume its series with Kentucky starting next season. IU needs at minimum to win its five home games here, but a perfect December really wouldn’t go amiss. That’s because of January.

January

Jan. 2: Rutgers

Jan. 5: at Penn State (in Philadelphia)

Jan. 8: USC

Jan. 11: at Iowa

Jan. 14: Illinois

Jan. 17: at Ohio State

Jan. 22: at Northwestern

Jan. 26: Maryland

Jan. 31: at Purdue

The busiest month of the Hoosiers’ schedule is also the toughest. After returning to Big Ten play against Rutgers’ dynamic freshman duo, Woodson’s team embarks upon a run of seven road games in 11 stretching across most of January and half of February.

That includes Penn State at the Palestra, a trip to Iowa, a look at resurgent Ohio State and road dates at Northwestern and Purdue, difficult arenas for Indiana in recent years. And that’s just January.

This is the crucible within which IU’s Big Ten title credentials will be tested. Extend this run into February and the Hoosiers face six true road games in nine. If we’re talking records here, an optimistic reading of January still probably tops out around 6-3. Winning every home game, however difficult, feels like a must.

February

Feb. 4: at Wisconsin

Feb. 8: Michigan

Feb. 11: at Michigan State

Feb. 14: UCLA

Feb. 23: Purdue

Feb. 26: Penn State

The reward for a difficult January is a more manageable February.

The Hoosiers will have to pull themselves through the early part of the month — if you want a bold call, this might be the year they finally win in Madison — but they’ll finish it at home for 17 days straight. Still, the tests are tough: Purdue, UCLA and Michigan State might all factor into the Big Ten race, Michigan has a formidable roster in Dusty May’s first year, and both Penn State and Wisconsin gave Indiana fits last season.

March

March 1: at Washington

March 4: at Oregon

March 8: Ohio State

March 12-16: Big Ten tournament (in Indianapolis)

There are probably more ideal holes in the calendar for that extended West Coast trip. Yes, every team in the conference has one, but plugging it into the tail end of a demanding season doesn’t seem preferable.

Nevertheless, that’s what IU will have to navigate if it’s still in that conference title race come March. The Hoosiers look like favorites in at least two of these games, if not all three. A 3-0 finish might mean the difference between another Big Ten title, and another season spent wondering when the next one will come.

IU basketball 2024-25 record prediction

Record: 22-9, 13-7

Torvik has Indiana No. 30 in his preseason projections, which is sixth in the Big Ten. He’s got the Hoosiers 19-10, and 11-9 in the conference.

While pointing out I voted the Hoosiers to finish third, I am perhaps still more bullish about their Big Ten title chances than most. How Woodson puts the pieces of his team together will decide how good it is and how far it goes, but on raw talent, there might not be a better 1-5 or 1-9 in the conference.

If we’re looking at specific results deviations between Bart’s projections and mine, I think Indiana gets one more win in The Bahamas, and turns one of Ohio State or Northwestern on the road into a win. I also think it’s possible the Hoosiers win all 10 Big Ten home games, something Bart’s game-by-game projections agree with.

For the record: I do not think 13-7 wins a share of the conference title.

Achievements: Big Ten tournament champions, NCAA tournament second weekend

Here’s where I get, uh, bold. Indiana’s never won the Big Ten tournament, as its fans well know. But Mike Woodson has a winning record in the event, and only once in three years has IU generally looked overmatched (last year vs. Nebraska). This team is deep and balanced, and likely able to pivot to other scoring options when key players go cold.

The NCAA tournament projection is just a guess. That kind of achievement is nearly always based on matchups and draws. But my reasoning mirrors what got to me to the first of these two big wins: Indiana has a depth of talent that’s hard to prepare for on short turnarounds, and that can serve the Hoosiers well where it matters.

Thoughts: A lot of this comes down to belief in individuals, and faith in the final result. That puts great weight on Woodson’s shoulders to make the right calls here, something I think might take time. It might, for example, mean losing a game in Atlantis we’ll look back two months later and think the Hoosiers should have won. It might also mean a lower NCAA tournament seed, with so little quality in the nonconference.

But I am probably more bullish on this team than the average. That stretch of difficult road games in January and February prevents me from genuinely backing IU to win the Big Ten regular-season title, but I think the Hoosiers will have their say in where it winds up, and I think given good health and good luck, they will be a difficult prospect in March.

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