On Tuesday, the Israeli military announced the loss of eight soldiers during combat operations in Lebanon, marking their first casualties since crossing the border to target Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group. 

This engagement comes at a time when Israel is also considering its response to Iran’s recent missile attack, raising speculation about a potential retaliation against Iran’s nuclear facilities—a long-standing concern for Israel.

At the start of this week, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, a move that has fueled speculation about potential Israeli retaliation.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has called for decisive action against Iran, urging Israel to “destroy Iran’s nuclear project, cripple their major energy facilities, and deliver a critical blow to this terrorist regime.”

Iran’s Nuclear Program

The ongoing conflict is also rooted in concerns over Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Both the US and the UN nuclear watchdog have stated that Iran once had a coordinated, secret nuclear weapons program, which was reportedly halted in 2003. Iran, however, denies ever having such a program or any intention to develop nuclear weapons.

In 2015, Iran agreed to restrict its nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief under a deal with world powers. However, the agreement collapsed in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the pact, prompting Iran to gradually abandon the restrictions.

Since then, Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear capabilities, becoming the only non-nuclear weapons state to produce 60% enriched uranium and accumulating enough near-weapons-grade material for approximately three bombs.

Iran’s weaponization-related research remains a major concern for both Israel and the US.

Historical Context: Covert Operations

The current open hostilities stand in stark contrast to the covert operations that characterized previous conflicts in the region.

A prime example of these covert actions came to light in March 2024 when details of a 2020 sabotage operation against an Iranian nuclear facility were revealed.

On March 24, 2024, Iran International revealed that an ‘industrial production workshop’ belonging to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) was deliberately set on fire in July 2020. AEOI is the main Iranian government agency that manages the country’s nuclear energy and fuel cycle facilities.

This incident was not reported publicly at the time and has only come to light through judicial and intelligence documents provided by a hacking group. According to the Iran International report, the leaked documents indicate that the Islamic Republic attributes the sabotage operation to the Israeli intelligence service Mossad.

Analysis of these documents suggests that Mossad hired a group of nine Iranians, providing them with a ‘blueprint of the Shadabad workshop’ and promising payment in exchange for setting the workshop on fire, destroying property, and filming the act.

The report states that the suspects received 2.7 billion rials (approximately $10,000 at the time) from an anonymous individual claiming to be a disgruntled creditor seeking revenge. This person promised them additional payment for carrying out the attack.

Masoud Rahimi, along with his brothers Mostafa and Mohammad and six others, entered the workshop armed, tied up the guard, and set fire to various pieces of equipment inside.

Described as a ‘covert workshop’ in the Shadabad neighborhood of Tehran, this site had not been disclosed to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Shadabad area is an older neighborhood located in District 18 of southwestern Tehran.

A National Security Issue

The arson soon became a major national security issue in Iran, catching the attention of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who demanded harsh punishment for the perpetrators. The nine suspects were arrested and charged with ‘acts against national security through cooperation with Israel.’

Interestingly, many of the accused were reportedly unaware that the facility they had targeted was part of Iran’s covert nuclear operations. Iran International’s report suggests that some of them had prior struggles with addiction, and their involvement seemed to stem more from desperation than from any ideological motivation.

Even the judiciary and security agencies recognized that the group had been manipulated rather than acting with deliberate intent to harm national security.

While initially charged with severe crimes such as ‘sabotage,’ ‘acts against national security,’ and ‘cooperation with Israel,’ the accused were acquitted of confronting the Islamic government.

However, Masoud Rahimi, the primary defendant, received the longest sentence—10 years in prison. Hundreds of letters exchanged between the judiciary, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence, and the Atomic Energy Organization underscore the gravity of the case.

Israel Remains Silent

On May 1, 2018, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that Israel had acquired 55,000 pages and 55,000 digital files detailing Iran’s nuclear program during a major intelligence operation.

However, following the sabotage at Iran’s covert nuclear facility in Shadabad, however, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office chose to remain silent. A spokesperson stated, “We have no comment.”

Five months after the Shadabad incident, another significant event occurred: the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the former head of the Ministry of Defense’s Research and Innovation Organization, on November 27, 2020. This assassination was seen as another strike against Iran’s nuclear program. Fakhrizadeh had been identified by Israel two years earlier as a key figure in Iran’s ‘nuclear weapons program.’

Unanswered Questions & Implications

A report published in March 2024 by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, stated that “the exact purpose of the workshop could not be identified.”

The report further noted, “If the workshop was involved in centrifuge R&D, component manufacturing, or assembly—particularly the manufacturing or assembly of rotor tubes, bellows, or their integration into rotor assemblies—it should have been declared under the monitoring provisions of the Additional Protocol and/or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Iran was officially still fully implementing at the time.”

Middle East On Edge

The recent events, from Israeli operations in Lebanon to Iranian missile attacks on Israel, suggest that the region may be entering a new phase of direct conflict, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the Middle East and beyond.

The shift from covert to overt operations raises questions about the future of regional stability and international relations. The involvement of major powers like the United States, through their military assets and alliances in the region, adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

• Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for E.T. Prime. In this capacity, she focused on covering defense strategies and the defense sector from a financial perspective. She offers over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
• Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail.com