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What are the odds of a third consecutive year of gains in the US equity markets? Will investors enjoy outsized gains, as has been the case amid the artificial intelligence-driven rally? Those are some of the big questions in the aftermath of the S&P 500 posting a 23% gain in 2024, building on a 24% gain in 2023.
If history is anything to go by, the likelihood of US equity markets finishing at a high for a third consecutive year is low. “Historically, the likelihood is about 1 in 5,” says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. While history tends to repeat itself, the chief investment strategist believes there is a high chance that investors will enjoy significant returns, as has been the case in the past two years.
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Ryan Detrick, a chief market strategist at the Carson Group, expects the equity markets to continue edging higher, driven by a more substantial consumer and an economy that is growing at an impressive rate. Inflation edging lower is another catalyst that should bolster equity sentiments, especially regarding the Federal Reserve cutting interests.
“If inflation continues to improve a little bit and the economy stays strong, there’s no need to have interest rates where they are right now,” he says. “We think more cuts are likely, and that may unlock some animal spirits that might help small businesses and the housing market.”
The sentiments come when the US stock market is trying to break out of a consolidation that has been in place since the start of the year. While major indices are flirting with record highs, there is limited upside action as investors remain on edge amid a change of policy by the new US administration. President Donald Trump’s sparking fierce trade wars with allies over trade tariffs has triggered significant volatility in the market.
According to Morgan Stanley, companies that offer services should have better protection than those that manufacture goods as tensions over international trade increase. On the other hand, companies with significant international operations would be seriously threatened by the economic levies and tariffs imposed by the new Trump administration. However, some stocks, like those that offer consumer services, are better positioned to withstand an impending global trade war.
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