Despite an up-and-down couple of weeks for Illinois basketball, in which the Illini have gone 2-3, they have largely held steady in the AP Top 25 poll, as well as the Net (10th) and KenPom rankings (10th). 

Even the past two games alone have been a study in contrasts, as Illinois was dismantled on its home court by Maryland 91-70 and then cruised to an 83-74 win over Northwestern in which the Illini led by 22 at the break. After the dust settled, coach Brad Underwood’s squad had slipped only one spot in the AP poll, from 17th to 18th.

The latest gauge of Illinois’ fitness? On Tuesday, college basketball expert Andy Katz released an update to his NCAA Tournament projections – and Illinois landed as a No. 4 seed in the East Region, drawing a matchup against Yale.

Holding position in the top 10 of the two rankings that hold the most sway in the decision-making process of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, the Illini have quite the impressive metric-based resume.

So is Katz selling them short with a No. 4 seed?

Definitely not.

Yes, Illinois has a sky-high ceiling – a ceiling the Illini likely didn’t even reach in their 109-77 record-breaking win at Oregon or dominant 91-52 victory over Penn State – but their floor sometimes feels that it can drop to the depths of the Mariana Trench. 

The gut-punch loss to Maryland could be chalked up as a one-off, based on extenuating circumstances and a bad night, but what about the low-energy 82-72 loss to USC – a game that was also played at the State Farm Center?

Right now, Illinois’ overall record of 14-6 is no better than good – hardly great – and its 6-4 Big Ten record leaves the Illini in a three-way tie for fifth in the conference. Only fine, even in the country’s deepest league.

Realistically, a No. 4 seed is spot-on for Illinois at this time – and perhaps even a bit generous.

That can change, of course. If Tomislav Ivisic (mono) returns healthy soon, if the outside shots begin to fall, if the young Illini tighten up their loose ends …

With the last third of the season remaining on the slate, the Illini will get opportunity after opportunity to get whole and build their resume – notably against No. 7 Michigan State, No. 2 Duke and No. 10 Purdue – but must bring a newfound level of consistency to tip-off in every game leading up to Selection Sunday to land a seed it once seemed readily prepared to earn.

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