Indiana women's basketball March Madness projections, bracketology after West Coast split

Indiana women’s basketball March Madness projections, bracketology after West Coast split

Posted by author January 29, 2025 Basketball

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The Indiana women’s basketball team is entering the home stretch of the regular season, and each game is becoming more and more indicative of its postseason fate.

The IU women are on the fringe of the NCAA Tournament. ESPN’s bracketology has Indiana in the “Last Four Byes” category, barely keeping them out of a potential play-in game.

The Hoosiers did reset with a much-needed win at Washington on Monday night, breaking a three-game losing streak and injecting some confidence into the team.

Each week, IndyStar will look at how IU fared the previous week, analyzing the Hoosiers’ potential March Madness resume.

Here’s how Indiana’s resume stacks up as of Tuesday:

What is NET ranking? How is women’s college basketball NET ranking determined?

Starting with the 2024-25 season the women’s basketball selection committee switched to using quadrants and NET rankings to help determine at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.

Based on the NET rankings of the opponent and the location of the game, teams can pick up wins or losses between Quads 1-4.

Here are the specifications: Quad 1 is home games against an opponent from NET ranking 1 to 25, neutral site games from 1 to 35, and road 1 to 45. Quad 2 is home games against an opponent with a NET ranking from 26 to 55, neutral site games from 36 to 65, and road 46 to 80. Quad 3 is home games against an opponent with a NET from 56 to 90, neutral site 66 to 105 and road games 81 to 130. Quad 4 opponents are home games 91+, neutral site 106+, and away games 131+. NET rankings are not established until all games are played, so a team can move up or down based on results.

Here are Indiana’s quadrant stats as of Jan. 28:

Indiana women’s basketball’s NCAA Tournament resume for March Madness

NET ranking: 39

Quad 1 record: 2-4

Quad 2 record: 4-2

Quad 3 record: 0-1

Quad 4 record: 7-0

Bracketology projections for IU women’s basketball

Her Hoop Stats (updated Jan. 21): No. 8 seed in Birmingham Regional 1 vs. Louisville, first weekend host site at South Carolina.

CBS (updated Jan. 24): No. 8 seed (formal bracket not projected)

ESPN (updated Jan. 28): No. 9 seed in Birmingham 3 region vs. Creighton, first weekend host site at Notre Dame

NCAA.com (updated Jan. 28): No. 10 seed in Birmingham Regional 2 vs. Baylor, first weekend host site at LSU

How Indiana women’s basketball results affected its March Madness resume last week

Jan. 24: 54-47 road loss to Oregon (No. 38 NET) — This was, in a lot of aspects, a demoralizing loss for the Hoosiers. They had a solid lead into the fourth quarter, but a 13-3 run over the last six minutes of the game gave the Ducks a seven-point win. It was a chance at a Quad 1 road win that would have boosted the Hoosiers’ tournament resume, but Indiana instead slipped to 2-4 in Quad 1 games.

Jan. 27: 73-70 road win over Washington (No. 55 NET) — This is the one that the Hoosiers hope got them back on track. It was almost a deja vu moment in the fourth quarter, though, as Washington roared back from a 14-point deficit to have a chance at tying the game in the final seconds. Indiana still managed to break a three-game losing skid, and Yarden Garzon shot out of her slump with a career-high 35-point game.

How upcoming games could help Indiana women’s basketball’s March Madness resume

Feb. 2: vs. Nebraska (No. 31 NET) — This one is just out of Quad 1 territory, but still would be a good Quad 2 pickup if the Hoosiers can take down the Huskers. Nebraska has some quality wins over Minnesota and Iowa in conference play, and is led by Alexis Markowski, who averages 14.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game.

Feb. 6: vs. Rutgers (No. 111 NET) — This one is essentially a must-win for the Hoosiers. There’s not much to gain, resume wise, as the Scarlet Knights are in Quad 4 territory, but there could be a lot to lose if Indiana drops this game. Rutgers is 9-12 with a 1-9 mark in Big Ten play, its only conference win coming over Penn State on Jan. 26.

Indiana women’s basketball remaining schedule

Feb. 2	Nebraska (Net 31, Quad 2)	Bloomington, Ind.
Feb. 6	Rutgers (Net 111, Quad 4)	Bloomington, Ind.
Feb. 9	at Minnesota (Net 29, Quad 1)	Minneapolis, Minn.
Feb. 12	at Michigan (Net 28, Quad 1)	Ann Arbor, Mich.
Feb. 15	Purdue (Net 153, Quad 4)	Bloomington, Ind.
Feb. 20	Ohio State (Net 14, Quad 1)	Bloomington, Ind.
Feb. 23	at Michigan State (Net 16, Quad 1)	East Lansing, Mich.
Feb. 27	Maryland (Net 24, Quad 1)	Bloomington, Ind.
Mar. 2	at Purdue (Net 153, Quad 4)	West Lafayette, Ind.
Mar. 5-9	Big Ten Tournament	Indianapolis, Ind.