While the Seattle Seahawks have the NFC West lead with four games to go, it’s a tenuous one. The unexpected Los Angeles Rams win over the Buffalo Bills means that while they’ve effectively rid themselves of the Arizona Cardinals, the Rams are over their shoulder. It’s a lead that could disappear as soon as this Sunday if the Seahawks lose against the Green Bay Packers.

And yet, with the right set of results, the Seahawks could win the NFC West before Christmas.

Before I get into the scenario, let’s review the latest divisional standings.

NFC West Standings

1. Seattle Seahawks (8-5, 3-2 NFCW)
2. Los Angeles Rams (7-6, 2-1 NFCW)
3. Arizona Cardinals (6-7, 2-2 NFCW, H2H vs. SF)
4. San Francisco 49ers (6-7, 1-3 NFCW)

Alright, now how can the Seahawks take the division over the next two weeks?

The Seahawks must win their final two home games

Self-explanatory but insanely difficult. The Green Bay Packers come into town in Week 15 with their only losses coming against the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Philadelphia Eagles. Minnesota is up next in Week 16 and doubles as Seattle’s home finale. There’s nothing simpler for the Seahawks in terms of maintaining their division lead than continuing to win.

The Rams must lose their next two games

Yes, this means “rooting” for the 49ers to beat the Rams this Thursday. Just that result alone would keep the Seahawks in first place into Week 16. But the next part of the assignment is for the lowly New York Jets to upset the Rams at home in Week 16. As poor as the Jets (3-10) have been this season, they’ve also lost seven games by one possession and have only a -49 point differential.

The 49ers must lose (or even tie, I guess) to the Dolphins in Week 16

Now that the 49ers have done the Seahawks a solid by beating the Rams and keeping their own playoff hopes alive, their hopes must be vanquished on the road by the Miami Dolphins, whose own postseason chances are almost gone. These teams have had their respective seasons thrown off-track by serious injuries to key players, but it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.

It doesn’t matter what the Cardinals do

Seriously. This isn’t meant as disrepect. The only way Arizona can win the division is to win out while the Seahawks go 1-3 or finish 3-1 while the Seahawks lose out. Two Seahawks wins or even one more Seahawks win and one more Cardinals loss would be enough to eliminate Arizona from the NFC West race.

The tl;dr version

Seattle Seahawks: W vs. Packers, W vs. Vikings
Los Angeles Rams: L vs. 49ers, L at Jets
San Francisco 49ers: W vs. Rams, L at Dolphins
Arizona Cardinals: Doesn’t matter

The dream scenario NFC West standings if all results break Seattle’s way

Seattle Seahawks (10-5) – Clinch NFC West before Week 17.

Los Angeles Rams (7-8) – Three games back with two to play.

San Francisco 49ers (7-8) – Three games back with two to play.

Arizona Cardinals (8-7, 7-8, or 6-9) – It doesn’t matter because they would either not have the tiebreaker on Seattle or be too far back to factor in.

Is this going to happen? Almost certainly not. But if you’re wondering if the Seahawks can avoid the high drama of a Week 18 “winner take all” situation against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium, there is a path to clinch much sooner than expected.