It’s a new season, same story for the Chicago Bears. Yet again with just a few games remaining in the 2024 regular season, we’re talking about where the Bears will be selecting in the NFL Draft as opposed to where they might be seeded in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, checking Tankathon in mid-December has become a tradition unlike any other in this city.

There’s some good news and some bad news regarding Chicago’s draft position for this April’s event. The good news is – well, again, not good because it means the team sucks but you get it – that the Bears are pretty much locked into a top-10 pick. At 4-10, they are currently slotted to pick ninth overall (just like last year!). The Saints are right behind them at 5-9 followed by the Dolphins and Colts at 6-8. I don’t think we need to worry about the Bears winning two of their last three, so with that in mind they’re pretty locked into not falling farther than 10th.

The bad news is that climbing too much farther in the order is going to be pretty difficult as well. Ahead of Chicago in the current draft order are the Jets at 4-10, the Browns, Titans, Panthers, Jaguars, and Patriots at 3-11, and lastly the Giants and Raiders at 2-12. The first tiebreaker is strength-of-schedule. Currently, Chicago would lose that tiebreaker to every other team in selecting the top 10.

I think it’s safe to say the Bears aren’t going to catch the Giants or Raiders. While Chicago finishing the season 0-3 is certainly possible (likely, even) the probability of either of those teams ripping off three wins in a row to close the year is unlikely. It would be an uphill climb to catch any of the 3-11 teams, but it’s doable. Here’s a look at the upcoming schedules for those 3-11 teams, the Jets, and the Saints.

New England Patriots (3rd Overall)

Jacksonville Jaguars (4th Overall)

Carolina Panthers (5th Overall)

Tennessee Titans (6th Overall)

Cleveland Browns (7th Overall)

New York Jets (8th Overall)

Chicago Bears (9th Overall)

New Orleans Saints (10th Overall)

So what’s the path to the Bears moving up? As mentioned above, the Bears finishing the season 0-3 and on an 11-game losing streak is incredibly possible, if not likely at this point with three remaining opponents all in playoff races.

If that were the case, the Jets winning one more game is possible. It would likely have to come in Week 18 against the Dolphins, but that can happen. I suppose the Browns could accidentally find a way to win two of their last three, but it would be an uphill climb especially now that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is taking the reins there for some reason.

I think your best bet to see one of the 3-11 teams fall behind the Bears, however, would be either of the AFC South teams ahead of them – Jacksonville and Tennessee. Those two play each other in Week 17, so that’s a guaranteed win for one of them. This week, the Jaguars play the Raiders. Granted it’s on the road, but that’s a very bad football team. Can either of the Titans or Jaguars knock off a very ‘meh’ Colts team?

All of this is such an unfortunate discussion to be having in mid-December, but it’s the reality of the situation. Instead of talking about whether the Bears can close the season out 2-1 in their last three games and get in the postseason, we’re asking if teams ahead of them can steal wins so our NFL Draft order can improve. At this point, hopefully, we can get lucky and jump into the top seven and virtually guarantee one of the top two offensive linemen on the board or Mason Graham.

NFL Draft season has come early yet again, folks!