Photo:

Ben Breland / Eclipse Sportswire

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Results

Friday

Santa Anita, race 6: Can Baeza become the third straight foal produced by Puca to win a Triple Crown race? I don’t think it’s impossible. The half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch impressed in a one-mile maiden special weight on Saturday at Santa Anita, so I’m adding him to my watch list.

Baeza never factored in his Dec. 1 debut on turf, finishing eighth. He improved when trying dirt on Jan. 4, finishing second in a one-mile maiden special weight against Rodriguez, who returned to run second in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

The third time was the charm for Baeza. Sticking to the same conditions as his second start, the son of hot young sire McKinzie pressed fractions of 22.94 and 46.93 seconds before taking over and pulling clear to win by 4 3/4 lengths in the respectable time of 1:37.84.

According to Brad Free of Daily Racing Form, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) is a possible next start for Baeza. I’m optimistic the best is still to come from this John Shirreffs trainee.

Saturday

Fair Grounds, race 4: Velvet Vortex is new to my watch list after debuting with a determined performance in a six-furlong maiden special weight.

On a day when running inside seemed to be an advantage, Velvet Vortex raced outside of pacesetter Velvet Devil through fractions of 21.65 and 45.32 seconds, but gradually wore down that rival to prevail by three-quarters of a length.

Velvet Vortex reached the finish line in a snappy 1:09.86, and Velvet Devil pulled 8 1/2 lengths clear of the rest, so Velvet Vortex looks like yet another talented 3-year-old filly from the barn of Brad Cox.

Gulfstream Park, race 9: Knightsbridge ran below my expectations when making his 4-year-old debut in a one-mile $62,500 allowance optional claimer. After dueling through fractions of 23.52, 45.89 and 1:10.98, not unreasonable for the distance, he faltered in the final furlong to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths as the 3-10 favorite.

This wasn’t a bad try off a four-month layoff, but since Knightsbridge has now lost two straight races, I’ll drop him from my watch list.

Fair Grounds, race 11: Watch list member Hall of Fame secured his first stakes win in tenacious fashion. Favored at 17-10 to beat an accomplished field in the 1 1/16-mile Mineshaft (G3), the son of Gun Runner tracked splits of 24.46, 48.60 and 1:12.63 in third place before wearing down the two leaders to prevail by a head in 1:42.89.

Hall of Fame finished fast, running his final five-sixteenths of a mile in approximately 30 seconds, and he earned a sharp 100 Beyer Speed Figure. Hall of Fame keeps getting better and may prove capable of winning at the Grade 1 level this year.

Fair Grounds, race 13: Watch list member Good Cheer left no doubt about her superiority in the 1 1/16-mile Rachel Alexandra (G2). Favored at overwhelming 1-20 odds to defeat three rivals, the beautifully bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of Wedding Toast had to wait in traffic after saving ground a couple lengths off the pace, but seized command easily once in the clear to dominate by 6 1/4 lengths.

Good Cheer reached the finish line in 1:44.12 and brought her career tally to a perfect five-for-five. At this point, she’s shaping up as the favorite for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Fair Grounds, race 14: East Avenue is off my watch list after tiring from a pace-tracking position to finish 10th in the Risen Star (G2). That followed a ninth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), so last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner is still short of his best form.

In contrast, I’m adding runaway Risen Star winner Magnitude to my watch list. Overlooked at 43-1 odds, the son of Not This Time ran absolutely out of his skin for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Setting fractions of 23.42, 46.92 and 1:10.95, which are seriously fast for Fair Grounds dirt routes, did little to tire Magnitude. He ran his final three furlongs in a respectable 37.90 seconds to win by 9 3/4 lengths in 1:48.85.

That fast final time translated to a powerful 108 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. Only time will tell if Magnitude can replicate this form down the road, but his Risen Star performance was Kentucky Derby-caliber, and I’m excited to see what he does next.

Sunday

Gulfstream Park, race 4: After spending over a year on the sidelines, Victory Avenue made his second start in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. The 4-year-old Gustavo Delgado trainee carved out splits of 22.09 and 45.77 seconds before weakening slightly to finish second by one length.

Since Delgado doesn’t often win with horses returning from long layoffs, I’ll keep Victory Avenue on my watch list and see if he moves forward in his second start back.

Sunland Park, race 7: Maysam disappointed as the 1-10 favorite when making her stakes and route debut in the Sunland Park Oaks, launching a mild rally around the far turn before fading to finish sixth by 18 1/4 lengths. I’ll remove her from my watch list.

2025 Watch List record

In 2025, horses on my watch list have recorded 40 starts, 14 wins, 10 seconds, and five thirds for a 35% win rate and a 74% in-the-money rate.