This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman handicap and offer top picks from this week’s Kentucky Derby prep, the Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby, as well as the Azeri Stakes (G2), which features the seasonal debut of the 2024 horse of the year Thorpedo Anna.

Before analysis of those graded stakes from Tampa Bay Downs and Oaklawn, Matt and Brian take a look back at an important series of Kentucky Derby prep races from last Saturday, which were run at Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct.

Brian: Matt, I have a feeling we will look back at this past Saturday as a key date on the Kentucky Derby trail. After last fall’s Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), I said I think I have my Derby horse. Journalism really impressed me in his final race as a 2-year-old with a smooth, powerful stride down the stretch. After a few months away, we saw it again and more when the son of Curlin made his return in the San Felipe (G2).

Matt: Journalism was my top pick to win the San Felipe. Brian, I was also impressed with him as a 2-year-old, especially when he defeated a team of Bob Baffert juveniles at Los Al. I felt like Journalism could beat a Baffert bunch again in his 2025 debut for the excellent young trainer Michael McCarthy. He did just that, but this time he beat the highly ranked and heavily bet Barnes by almost two lengths and now has won his last three starts. Journalism is now my top Kentucky Derby horse. McCarthy was part of the preparation of 20 horses for the Derby when he was a top assistant for Todd Pletcher.

Brian: Although Journalism’s impressive victory over the talented Barnes at Santa Anita confirms his spot as my top-ranked horse for the first Saturday in May, we cannot overlook the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Gotham (G3) for potential Kentucky Derby contenders. 

Sovereignty, in particular, was a good-looking winner at Gulfstream Park. Away for just over four months and trained by Bill Mott, I did not know if the Into Mischief colt would have the sharpness to beat a pretty good field in the Fountain of Youth. He almost didn’t, but his late rush got there in the end. He sure looks like a horse who will not mind 10 furlongs.

Matt: Sovereignty was able to do something that many horses have had trouble doing, and that was winning their first start of the year on the Derby trail as a 3-year-old. Sovereignty picked up where he left off last year, winning a qualifier for the run for the roses. The Bill Mott-trained Godolphin-bred now has 60 points, which wraps up a spot for him in the Derby. Like Journalism, Sovereignty has moved up on my Derby contenders list.

River Thames also impressed as the second-place finisher in the Fountain of Youth. In his third career start and first appearance in a stakes race, the Pletcher trainee had the lead deep in the stretch and got beat by just a neck.

Brian: As for the Gotham, I will take a wait-and-see approach with Flood Zone. He is lightly raced and proved very game, but it’s hard to know how that form will hold up when the class and distance increase. My guess is that Captain Cook remains the one to beat in next month’s Wood Memorial (G2).

Matt: The Gotham had an interesting field of nine 3-year-olds who were short on Derby-trail experience but had two undefeated New York-breds. I was glad to see trainers taking a shot in the Gotham as the short fields in several recent prep races has me scratching my head in disbelief.

Flood Zone won the race at odds of almost 18-1, which in hindsight seems hard to believe considering that trainer Brad Cox won so many times on the Derby trail over the past few years.

Brian: Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby features the return of the two-time Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick. Away since a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the son of McKinzie was a strong finishing winner of three straight races going one turn in New York to begin his career for trainer Chad Brown, including the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1). He will have to be at or near his best here if he is to return a winner. 

Among his chief opposition on Saturday are Patch Adams, a talented Brad Cox runner who was fourth in the Southwest Stakes last out; Hill Road, who was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his U.S. debut; and stakes winner Owen Almighty from the barn of Brian Lynch.

Matt: Although the Tampa Derby drew only a field of seven, six of them already have run on the Kentucky Derby trail and five earned some qualifying points. Five of the jockeys and three of the trainers are past winners of the signature race at this Florida track.

Brian: We all know about the massive 3-year-old season that Thorpedo Anna turned in last year. She won five Grade 1 races, just missed in the Travers (G1) against the top males and won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff with ease. Will she be as good or better this year at 4? After four months away, it’s fair to wonder what we will see on Saturday, but remember she made her first start as a 3-year-old at Oaklawn after the same layoff and trounced them in the Fantasy (G3).

As for her competition on Saturday, I am not going to tell you that they are in the same league as Thorpedo Anna. But Jody’s Pride, Alpine Princess, Free Like a Girl, Recharge and Wild Bout Hilary all are proven stakes fillies who could win if the favorite stumbles. 

Matt: It is great to have the horse of the year Thorpedo Anna coming back so early in the year, which gives us reason to expect her to run four or five times as a 4-year-old. I also see no reason for the Kenny McPeek superstar to not come out running at Oaklawn in the Azeri. She already has $3.8 million in earnings with eight wins and two seconds from 10 starts.

Brian: I can’t be on the favorite in both races, so I will be looking to beat the chalk in the Tampa Bay Derby. I expect the Chad Brown and Brad Cox runners to get the most action here, leaving Owen Almighty with solid value. Disqualified in the Pasco and a strong second in the Sam F. Davis, he has run two very good races over the track, and I expect another one here. He is tactical and talented and my top pick.

Matt: The pace projector shows a fast pace with Brodeur, Owen Almighty and Patch Adams being forwardly placed in the early going. To me it doesn’t feel like these horses will be setting sprinter-type fractions, but they break from the gate alertly and hold that position.

The connections of Owen Almighty have stated that this will be his last race on the Derby trail and that he will not go in the run for the roses regardless of what happens on Saturday. Instead, he will race at distances of a mile or less.

As Brian stated, Chancer McPatrick won his first three races, including a pair of historic Grade 1 stakes in New York. Yes, his sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was disappointing, but his breeding says that he should handle two turns. I will take the connections of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat and make Chancer Mc Patrick my top pick.

Brian: I have had the pleasure of following Thorpedo Anna since seeing her in her career debut at Keeneland, and I have long believed that she is a special filly. She absolutely thrives on running and I don’t believe that she will be one of those female horses who struggle after a layoff. With bigger and better things on the horizon, you’d better believe that Thorpedo Anna is my top pick in the Azeri. Having said that, this will be a watch-with-no-wager race for me as I suspect her odds will be in the 1-9 range on Saturday.

Matt: Even though Thorpedo Anna will be a very heavy favorite, there is no way that I can think about picking against her. The Azeri will not be a race where I will bet to win or an exacta, but she will certainly provide a free square in horizontal wagers such as the late Pick 4 and Pick 5.