Today on HorseCenter, your hosts will jump on the road to the roses in full force. With only 11 weeks and counting until the first Saturday in May, Brian and Matt will start by analyzing some of the more interesting runners of the 40 prospects offered by Churchill Downs this weekend in pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

The HorseCenter duo also will offer their thoughts and top picks for important qualifying points races for not only the Derby, but also the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. On Saturday at Fair Grounds, Godolphin homebreds East Avenue and Good Cheer are the morning-line favorites for the $500,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2), respectively.  

Brian: I don’t know about you, Matt, but with only 11 weeks to go before this year’s Kentucky Derby, I am finding this year’s prospective runners to be even more difficult to sort than usual. Having said that, we should see some very good prices on horses we like in this weekend’s future wager. 

Matt: No doubt that the list of Kentucky Derby contenders is wide open, Brian. With 19 of the Derby preps already run there is no standout for the Kentucky Derby even with the return of the Bob Baffert 3-year-olds.

Brian: The Baffert runners, namely Citizen Bull and Barnes should get plenty of action, as well as whoever wins the Risen Star on Saturday. Because of the latter, I will wait until Sunday to see how things sort out a bit before betting, but I already have my eyes on some potential value horses in the pool.

Matt: The Risen Star has become such an important Derby prep. The recent winners of the Fair Grounds third qualifying race for the Derby have done great things. Sierra Leone missed winning the run for the roses by a nose and went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic before being named the champion 3-year-old. Epicenter was also second in the Derby and the Eclipse Award winner. Mandaloun was moved up to first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

Brian: It’s worth noting that pool 4 will close on Sunday at 6 p.m., which is before they will run the Sunland Derby. We’ve seen horses come from Sunland and run well in the Kentucky Derby before, so I will look to take a shot on a horse in hopes that he will move forward in New Mexico.

Getaway Car is a horse who displayed early brilliance for trainer Bob Baffert last summer but was unable to break through with a big win in his last four starts as a juvenile. He ran well enough, though, to believe that if he can mature and develop this year, he could move up toward the top of the division. As a son of Curlin, I am willing to take a shot on him. He’s listed at 80-1!

Matt: I remember from past discussions of the future wager on HorseCenter that you had some big scores in this bet by focusing on long shots that have a chance to move forward.

Brian: Another horse that is 80-1 on the future pool morning line is Tiztastic. The son of Tiz the Law is trained by Steve Asmussen, and his lone stakes win to date actually came on the grass at Kentucky Downs. In fact, he has not won on the dirt yet, but he is improving. He has run well at Churchill Downs and I believe he wants to run farther. Granted he was only third best in the Southwest last time, but I loved the way he was finishing. 

I see these future pools as a time to take a shot at big odds on a horse you think is primed to get better in the spring. Getaway Car and Tiztastic fit the bill and are the two long shots who interest me the most at very big odds.

Matt: Journalism and Captain Cook are listed at 20-1 and River Thames is 25-1 in the pool 4 morning line. I will keep a close eye on them as the betting goes on this weekend. They would be worth a wager if they exceed their morning-line odds.

Journalism was last seen winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on the Derby trail over three Baffert runners. He is back on the work tab at Santa Anita for trainer Michael McCarthy. Captain Cook had the look of a horse who will get better with more distance when he won the Withers for Rick Dutrow. River Thames won a maiden and an allowance for Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream since January by a combined margin of more than 11 lengths while stretching out from six furlongs to a mile.

Brian: Fair Grounds will host the deepest 2025 Kentucky Derby prep so far this season with the Risen Star Stakes. East Avenue is the most intriguing horse in the field and the likely favorite. A son of Medaglia d’Oro, he looked the part of a very good horse with two eye-catching wins in Kentucky to begin his career. They were so good that he was made the 9-5 favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he lost all chance after a terrible break from the gate. Freshened and working well for his return, he looks like the one to beat.

Among his challengers on Saturday include the trio of Jonathan’s Way, Built and Vassimo. Jonathan’s Way has plenty of good stakes experience, but was a disappointment in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Built has run two good stakes races recently at Fair Grounds and picks up rider Luis Saez for this one. Vassimo, meanwhile, will be making his stakes debut here but is unbeaten in two career starts for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Matt: American Promise is another horse of interest in the Risen Star. It took this D. Wayne Lukas runner six tries to get his maiden victory but when he did win it was assigned a speed figure that can be matched by only East Avenue. In his early starts, American Promise faced several horses that have already run on the Derby trail. He has 12-1 morning line odds and could be a live long shot as Lukas tries to win the Risen Star for the fourth time.

Brian: In the female counterpart to the Risen Star, the unbeaten Good Cheer looks to be a pretty heavy favorite in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra, and with good reason. Brad Cox has a trio of accomplished young fillies, including the champion Immersive, and this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro takes a back seat to neither of the other two. She’s won all four of her career starts in style and is experienced at the 1 1/16-mile trip. Proven against graded stakes competition, she is strictly the one to beat as she takes her show on the road to New Orleans while making her first start in nearly three months.

Of the top challengers, Anonima and Simply Joking look like the stiffest competition to the favorite. I find the latter to be the more dangerous of the two here. Trained by Whit Beckman, this two-time stakes winner has good early speed and a pair of recent wins over the track. This will be a step up in competition for her, but I believe Simply Joking is a talented filly.

Matt: It is interesting that Simply Joking broke her maiden at Fair Grounds in a stakes race in December and as an unraced maiden was sent off at 5-2 odds. Clearly the connections knew that they had a special filly in their barn.

Brian:  For me, the Risen Star comes down to East Avenue. I do not believe that any of his many challengers here have the upside that he does. This is not an easy test for his return, but I see him as one of the best 3-year-olds in the land, and if I’m right, he should be able to handle this bunch in his sophomore debut. His works look good, East Avenue is my top pick.

Matt: East Avenue certainly impressed in his first two starts and looms as the horse to beat. The projector shows a fast pace with East Avenue being one of three horses that will be vying for the early lead. Stretching out to nine-furlongs at the Fair Grounds while taking pace pressure, East Avenue faces a big challenge and a big field in which to make his first start of 2024. Built has two excellent races at the Fair Grounds with the Gun Runner victory and the neck loss in the Lecomte (G3). Built is projected to be stalking the fast pace, which puts him in an ideal position. Built is my top pick.

Brian: I also don’t see much early speed in the Rachel Alexandra. Given that and her sharp recent form, I am willing to take a shot against the favorite here with Simply Joking. The daughter of Practical Joke produced a pair of nice performances to begin her career. Good Cheer is clearly the one to beat on Saturday, but I will be looking for better value on a very talented and undefeated filly in Simply Joking as my top pick.

Matt: The pace projector also classifies the Rachel Alexandra as a race without any significant early speed and shows that Simply Joking could very well get loose on the lead. Good Cheer won all four of her starts easily each time getting bet down to be a heavy favorite. She could win for the fifth time, but it will not be easy to make her first start as a 3-year-old that runs from behind. If Simply Joking dictates a moderate pace while out front she has the advantage in this battle of unbeaten fillies. Thus, Simply Joking will be my top pick also.